Fantasy Premier League: Friday Preview - GW7

Last week was my first below the gameweek average, so I'm hoping for something better this time out. Fortunately it looks like Sokratis has recovered from last week's injury so I have a full squad to choose from.

Once again Newcastle and Crystal Palace have decent-ish fixtures. This means I have good options at the back. As it stands I'm going to hedge my bets and go with one player from each club. Hennessey in goal and Yedlin** in defence. Alonso and Robertson face each other in their fixture so I'm not especially hopeful of clean sheets in that one. I don't like ditching top players just because they have tough fixtures though, so I'm happy to resist the temptation to bring in Tomkins for one of the two. Finally, with Sokratis back I'm hoping he'll actually score me some points this week with Arsenal having a promising fixture at home to Watford.

(Hennessey in goal, Robertson, Yedlin, Alonso

and Sokratis at the back - click to enlarge)

As for the midfield I'm going for four players instead of three this week. Bringing in Gundogan for Man City's great tie with Brighton. This'll mean I'll potentially have three City players for that game. If I'm lucky and all three start it could help me have a very nice week. Also, with Eriksen missing out for Spurs it means Lucas Moura is much more likely to start than he perhaps would have been. They play Cardiff at home next gameweek so I may bring in Son for Silva for that one, so I have two Spurs players in there.

(Gundogan, D. Silva, Moura and Hazard)

Upfront I have just Firmino and Aguero, with Deeney dropping to the bench.

(Firmino and Aguero)

Who To Captain - Hazard or Aguero?

As you can see from the images above I currently have Hazard as captain. This is a really tough decision, and I'm still not %100 certain yet to go this way. The big question for me is which is the safest option? However, the answer shifts depending on which angle you're looking at it from.

Last season, which was my first season playing FPL, I was never really aware of the wider overall league table. I was mainly concerned with winning the mini league I was in at work and getting the highest points tally I could. Consequently, when it came to the question of who to captain each week I wasn't even vaguely aware that say, "x" percentage of FPL managers were captaining this player, or that "y" percentage were captaining that player. I just followed my own judgement - and my own judgement tended to be based on just two questions. Firstly - which players are guaranteed to start? Then secondly - of the players guaranteed to start who's most likely to get top points?

If I follow this logic now then the obvious choice is Hazard. He's pretty much certain to start, and certain to play most of the game. Whereas Aguero isn't absolutely certain to start, and in the last game he only played 60 minutes.

However, now I'm trying to get the highest possible rank in the overall table I have another problem to contend with. Most FPL managers will captain Aguero - so in this regard it's safest to go with the herd as if I stray and Aguero does well then I potentially fall behind a huge chunk of players who will have Aguero as captain. Likewise if I captain Aguero and he doesn't do well I can sleep safe in the knowledge that everyone else will be suffering the same fate. So looking at things from this point of view it becomes a gamble to choose Hazard over Aguero.

So what's the safest option, and which method is the best way to approach things?

At present I'm still not sure lol. I am however hovering over the idea of simply ignoring what others are doing and captaining Hazard - a player certain to start.

So as it stands things look like this.

(GW7 teamsheet - click to enlarge)

It may all change in a fit of panic in the morning though.

**UPDATE - a minor injury scare has led to Yedlin now needing a fitness test before tomorrow's game, so I've just switched my Palace and Newcastle keepers and defenders around. Still got Hazard captain though as it stands :)

(Slightly revised GW7 teamsheet)

Fantasy Premier League: GW6 Review

A bit of a bad week this time out. I'll have to deactivate last week's smugness somewhat. Could have been much worse though.

Gameweek Points: 50

Gameweek Rank: 3,295,212

Overall Rank: 65,305

(Click to enlarge)

So first up, my big mistake. The gameweek average was 52 points so I've gotten off the hook a little bit. However, my decision to bring in Sokratis has cost me big time. He picked up a yellow card and then went off injured after 38 minutes. Leaving a huge zero in the middle of my defence. Plus another headache going forward.

It was a gamble to bring him in in the first place really. Especially given Arsenal's prior defensive record. I think I was trying to be a little too clever. Saying that though Arsenal did manage to keep a clean sheet (somewhat luckily).

The rest of my defence did fairly nicely, and this was my saving grace. The Crystal Palace/Newcastle goalless draw meant that both my keepers got top marks. Hennessy 8 points and Dubravka a huge 10. I went with Hennessey so missed out on the extra 2, but I'm pretty pleased nonetheless. Yedlin and Tomkins likewise benefited from the Palace draw. On top of this Alonso and Robertson both got clean sheet points too. ..Plus Robertson's trademark bonus point.

Hazard failed to deliver for the first time this season, which was disappointing. However, you can't get points every week, and I've been very fortunate with his points scoring so far this season. Moura just got me a 3, Aguero 6 and Deeney and Firmino just 2 points a piece.

Possible Transfers

I've decided to go against bringing Giroud in. I don't think he'll get enough minutes for the price sadly. It was a tempting idea while it lasted though. I've now decided to return to my original plan of upgrading my midfield. I think I'll upgrade one of my £4.5m midfielders to Gundogan this week. Though I think I'll wait til Friday to make the final decision. Going forward I'm looking at Shaqiri as well, though he burned me earlier in the season. I really have my fingers crossed that he pins down that "Coutinho" spot in midfield. Arsenal's Torreira also looks like a decent option for cheaper 5th midfielder.

(Shaqiri - the new Coutinho?)

Top 5 Players I Don't Own That I Fear

1. Salah

2. Kane

3. Sterling

4. Lukaku

5. Mitrovic

I'm putting Salah back in top fear position. He looked much better going by the highlights yesterday, plus he notched a goal. Kane got bonus points plus a goal. Sterling got an assist. Lukaku slips down a bit and Mitrovic scored again - so he really is looking dangerous. I was a little sceptical that he'd provide long term value, but I'm starting to feel like I'm really missing out by not having him.

..A little short and sweet this week, but I plan to do some thinking before my GW7 Preview. So I'll probably have a lot more to say then :)

Fantasy Premier League: Friday Preview - Gameweek 6

Last week I finished up with 88 points, which was my highest tally so far. With so many people now wildcarding and dropping Salah this looks like it could be another fascinating week, so I'll quickly get started.

With Crystal Palace playing Newcastle I have the difficult decision of choosing which side to back. I've decided to go with Palace, simply due to the fact that they're at home. So I have Hennessey in goal, and Tomkins in defence. Accompanied by Alonso, Robertson and my new introduction Sokratis. Dubravka and Yedlin will have to settle for a place on the bench.

(Hennessy in goal, with Robertson, Sokratis, Alonso

and Tomkins - click to enlarge)

Moving into midfield it's the same three as last week, with Hazard as captain once again - seeing him rested last night in their Europa League match was something of a bonus too :D

(David Silva, Lucas Moura and Eden Hazard)

My attack is likewise the same. The one-eyed god Firmino looks to be in great form, so I'll be hoping he starts against Southampton. Aguero looks good to start as well as he started on the bench in their awful midweek Champions League game against Lyon.

(Deeney, Firmino and Aguero)

Sadly it could be Deeney's last game for me, as if Giroud starts for Chelsea I'll be almost certain to bring him in - £7.8m for a Chelsea striker who looks set to be first choice looks great value. So I'll be keeping an eye on the Chelsea teamsheet on Sunday.

..And finally my bench;

(Dubravka, Yedlin, Guendouzi and Stephens)

In a way bringing Giroud in will scupper my original plans to use the money I'd saved bringing in Deeney and Sokratis to upgrade one of my bench midfielders. So this area remains a real weakness in my team. It would be nice to have the option of four decent midfielders, but so far I haven't discovered a way to fix this problem, and the Giroud option looks too tempting to ignore if he does start.

My final line-up for GW6;

(Gameweek 6 teamsheeet

- click to enlarge)

Fantasy Premier League: Gameweek 5 Review

Another great week, things are going very nicely :D

Gameweek Points: 88

Gameweek Rank: 57,973

Overall Rank: 36,095

(click to enlarge)

The gameweek average this week was 47 points.

My main points scorer was Hazard, who grabbed a hat-trick plus the three bonus points. With the captains armband this meant that he earned me a whopping 40 points. Pretty much half my total score. Others who done well for me were Firmino, grabbing 9 points, David Silva with 11, and Aguero with 7. I also benefited from a Crystal Palace clean sheet which meant both Hennessey and Tomkins earned me 6 points a piece.

Surprisingly Robertston, Alonso and Mendy all failed to deliver this gameweek, which means the idea of having three premium defenders might now start to fall out of fashion. Mendy in particular was the big disappointment as he didn't even start - missing the game with a knee injury. This is quite eerie as I kinda predicted something like this in my Friday Preview the day before. Writing, Nostradamus-like;

...I have been thinking about cashing in on Mendy and bringing in a nice safe Spurs centre-back. This would be quite sacrilege for most FPL managers, but the fact that Mendy was previously out injured for so long leaves me with a nagging doubt it'll happen again.

Consequently I've heeded my gut feeling and now transferred him out. After seeing how Spurs played though I've decided that a Spurs defender might be a bit pricey. So I've opted for Arsenal's Sokratis instead.

(Sokratis)

At £5.3m it means that I'm saving £1m with the transfer. It's perhaps a bit risky to bring him in this early, but I decided to move just in case there's a Mendy price drop following the nasty yellow warning sign that's now next to his name. I have a feeling many FPL managers will be tempted to save some money and move it elsewhere.

Sokratis will probably be viewed as an odd choice by most people, however these are my reasons for choosing him. First up, he looks by far Arsenal's best centre-back, so I think Arsenal will need him to play every game. So hopefully zero chance of rotation. I could have went for Gomez or Alexander-Arnold who are in a similar price bracket, but the risk of rotation is a little too scary - plus I don't really like the idea of having two Liverpool players at the back.

Also I'm hopeful that Arsenal will continue improving. I think winning away to Newcastle was a huge result and a good sign they're on the right track. So far Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet and Sokratis has picked up just 5 points from his first five games - which is absolutely woeful. However, I'm happy to take the gamble. Their run of fixtures is also pretty good. If they dropped the haphazard Mustafi they could be a real force.

I like having players from "top six" sides too. Statistically alone they're just gonna win more games, so if you can have top six players who actually start it's generally a good bet in the long run. For similar reasons I'm keeping an eye on Giroud. If he becomes Chelsea's first choice attacker then I'll bring him in for Deeney in a flash. He linked up very well with Hazard at the weekend, and Hazard even described him after the game as the "world's best target man".

"He's a target man, maybe the best in the world. I think so,"

- Hazard, BBC Sport interview.

If this is a sign of things to come then at £7.8m Giroud would be great value.

The Top Five Players I Don't Have That I Fear

Finally, and quickly, I'll list the top five players I don't have that I fear not having.

1. Lukaku

2. Sterling

3. Salah

4. Mane

5. Kane

So the list has changed a little since last time, though Lukaku is still top. Another goal means he's looking quite consistent. If he starts more than Aguero (also bearing in mind Aguero's recent injury of course) then I'll have a big decision to make.

I completely forgot about Sterling last week, but he's looking like he's going to have another great season. The price of £11m is very steep, but so far he looks like he'll be right up there with points and goals again. It would be incredibly difficult to get him in my team though sadly.

Salah, Mane and Kane all looked a little flat this week, so I'm not as worried about not having them in my side as I once was. However, a few games can change everything, so the fear remains.

Fantasy Premier League: Friday Preview - Gameweek 5

Last time out I got a pretty decent score of 71 points, which also meant that so far I've beat the gameweek average in each of the four weeks this season. A start I'm very happy with. Consequently though I'm a little bit fearful that this week will be the first bad one. So fingers crossed it'll all come good.

In goal it's the first week where I've had a slightly difficult decision to make - Hennessey away to Huddersfield vs Dubravka at home to Arsenal. Hennessey seems like the obvious choice so that's what I'm going with. However, I think Newcastle have looked much better than people have given them credit for, especially defensively - in spite of their very poor points tally. So Dubravka is a temptation. However, as you can see below I'm going with Yedlin at the back too. So it would probably be unwise to double down on Newcastle.

(Hennessey in goal, Robertson, Mendy, Alonso and Yedlin

at the back  - click to enlarge)

This'll be the first start I've given Yedlin, so I'm hoping he'll have a similar week to last, where he clocked up 7 points. The other three are pretty much the template now, so nothing too much to say. Though I have been thinking about cashing in on Mendy and bringing in a nice safe Spurs centre-back. This would be quite sacrilege for most FPL managers, but the fact that Mendy was previously out injured for so long leaves me with a nagging doubt it'll happen again. Plus will City really deliver on clean sheets? ..hopefully the assists will keep coming though :D

(Midfield - D. Silva, Lucas Moura and Eden Hazard)

I really like the look of this midfield on paper. I just hope all three start. So far Silva hasn't picked up too many points for me - just 3 in two weeks so far since I brought him in. I'm still confident he'll come good though, as he's played well despite the lack of points. So hopefully this'll be the week.

Hazard once again captain too. I think he'll be my default captain for the foreseeable future. Captaining him last week paid off massively for me. Aguero could quite easily outscore him tomorrow, but he could also potentially be benched too knowing Pep. So I'm quite happy to play it safe. Though if Aguero does have a good week and his price rises further I'll be very tempted to cash in and switch to Lukaku - that would be a real gamble !

(Deeney, Firmino and Aguero)

So in attack I have my new signing; Troy Deeney. When I saw Zaha was injured I decided to make the change pretty sharpish. I'm a huge fan of Zaha and think he's probably the most talented player in the Premier League outside of the top six. However, when I put him in at the start of the season I was apprehensive about injuries as he spent so much time out last season. So I deemed this injury a bad sign, even though it's still possible he could play tomorrow.

Deeney is someone I've always been a fan of. If he actually keeps starting games I'll be more than happy to keep him in the team. It's not a perfect solution though as it stands.

Also, apparently Firmino got back from international duty later than many of the other Liverpool players, so there's talk he could potentially be benched. Therefore I guess it's just a case of hoping he does start.

(Gameweek 5 bench - Dubravka,

Tomkins, Stephens and Guendouzi)

Finally, my bench. It looks doubtful Tomkins will be fit and ready, but I may as well have him first in line to fill in as if he does start a clean sheet is plausible. The other two generally just deliver 1 or 2 points per game. Which is nice as a back up, but nothing really to write home about. It'll be interesting to see if Guendouzi keeps starting though, as I'd probably prefer to keep an Arsenal player when I upgrade. However, at the moment Stephens looks the more sensible option to keep.

So, my final team for Gameweek 5;

(Gameweek 5 teamsheet

- click to enlarge)

Fantasy Premier League: GW4 Review

Very nice week for me, which means my first gameweek review can be an easy one.

Gameweek Points: 71

Gameweek Rank: 59,762

Overall Rank: 193,646

The gameweek average was 44 points this week, so I'm very pleased. I had a hell of a lot of luck - a Hennessey penalty save, a very lucky Lucas Moura assist, and Alonso just getting one yellow card when he easily could have picked up two. Some of my big calls also paid off as well though. Hazard outscored Aguero - justifying the captains armband, and sticking with Firmino finally paid off as he grabbed his first goal of the season.

(click to enlarge)

Having Robertson, Alonso and Mendy also paid off handsomely again. Salah failing to assist or score for the first time this season also helped a lot too :)

My midfield was a bit hit and miss. Hazard and Moura came good, but Silva, Guendouzi and Stephens contributed just four points between them. Though Stephens did come off my bench for the injured Zaha, so his point was something of a bonus really. Guendouzi in particular looks unlikely to pick up any significant points in the future. He plays so deep that even an odd assist looks unlikely. He also drops back for Arsenal's corners and set plays. So that area of my team definitely needs improvement.

I've just used my transfer to switch the 7m (and still injured) Zaha for the 6m Troy Deeney. So the following week I'll have a spare 1.1m to make some kind of change. Perhaps Jorginho or maybe James Milner. It would be nice to have an extra Chelsea player for their GW5 tie with Cardiff, but I don't think it would be worth the minus 4 sadly. So I'll have to wait another week to spend the cash.

(Troy Deeney - 

this week's free transfer)

I should also show my GW4 bench before I forget. It wasn't too bad thanks to Newcastle's semi-decent display against Man City. It would have been nice to have added Yedlin's goal to my overall points tally, but my fear that City would put five and six past Newcastle made me leave him last in the pecking order.

(GW4 bench)

The injury to Tomkins is more of a minor irritation than a major worry at the moment, so I'll just have to keep an eye on it.

The Top Five Players I Don't Have That I Fear

Whenever I'm talking to people about FPL teams it always seems to come back to one question - who you fear not having in your side. I think the two biggest reasons why people pick players are either because they really rate them, or they really fear not having them. We all have our favourite players. Players we want to have in our side. In my case these are probably Firmino, Robertson, Azpilicueta (who I sadly had to drop for Mendy), Son (who I'm still tempted to have in my side even though he's barely featured yet). Also, being a Middlesbrough fan I'm very tempted to get in Wolves' Adama Traore - it's especially difficult to resist the temptation when there's a club association.

This desire to pick our favourite players can be good ..but it can also lead us astray. It's similar with the fear factor. It can be useful, but it can also lead you to suspend your own judgement on a player and just follow the herd, or the stats. Was it a good decision for me to callously drop Azpilicueta for Mendy? So far it seems like a good decision, but only time will tell.

Anyway, I thought it would be good to have a Top 5 Players I Fear each week, as it's probably the best and most succinct way to rate the top players I don't have. So this week's list...

1. Lukaku

2. Salah

3. Kane

4. Mane

5. Trippier

Normally Salah and Kane would be top. Especially given that I decided to completely dismiss both of them at the beginning of the season. I don't even have a plan to get either in if they start tearing it up. After watching the weekend's fixtures though my fear has shifted elsewhere a little bit.

Lukaku may seem like an odd choice for top spot, especially given how poor Man Utd have started, but it's what my gut instinct says at the moment. He's going to start pretty much every game. He will get goals. It's just a question of how many. Even after he misfired against Tottenham his two goals yesterday weren't surprising.

Also my team is set up in a way where I'd pretty much have to drop Aguero to bring him in. Plus I've never been a huge fan of Lukaku, so I'll drag my feet if it gets to the point where he becomes essential to own.

Mane and Trippier are pretty much self-explanatory. Both have made great starts to the season and look on course to keep doing well. Aubameyang and Lacazette are not too far down the list either, with both looking much better at the weekend. It'll be interesting to see if my list is still the same after Gameweek 5.