Update: Two Transfers

I've made two transfers before the deadline instead of my planned one. I've lost my nerve on Tzolis. I was expecting him to start, but so many others - including people better at predicting line-ups than me - are leaning towards Eze. So, with a spare transfer sitting there, it seems sensible to move to a safer option.

I've gone with Sangaré, the template pick. On the one hand it narrows the difference between me and everyone else, and stops me missing out on a value player. On the other it now means I'll only have one free transfer next week. Meaning only one extra Chelsea player.

I could do with Liverpool doing well later on today. If I'm sitting with two blanks before we even get to Saturday it might be a long weekend. Though, saying that, Bruno could save me again with another super Sunday.

Questions, questions, questions..

I'm posting a fair bit this season. Very engaged! Hopefully it continues. I didn't actually share my GW2 score in that last post, so I'll do that here. Then I'll list some of the remaining questions I have. Things I feel still haven't been resolved in these first two weeks.

GW2: 110 points (avg. 81)

My GW3 team will look identical, except Mbeumo will become Cherki (team news permitting). Cherki will also be captain.

So, my questions..

Gabriel.

This is a tricky one, as clean sheets look good; defcon looks good, but the attacking threat feels a little diminished. Mainly because Arsenal have continued the trend of taking short corners. So, with the hefty price tag, there's definitely a decision to be made.

If Konsa usurps Mosquera, and the consensus seems to be that he will, then that's a huge saving if you're just looking for that Arsenal clean sheet potential. Gabriel needs much more to justify the price jump.

Then again, does he? Maybe you just get both and let the price tags average out. It's very nice owning Gabriel. It feels like you have a huge advantage over people who don't own him. If a few goals do come as well, then it's a massive differential. So I really don't want to lose him ..but, that extra money would help to get to Haaland.

Van Dijk.

This one's similar. Defcon looks decent. Clean sheets not so much. Goal threat always good.

It's highly unlikely I'll be taking Califiori out any time soon. So at the moment Van Dijk is the one I'd be most eager to downgrade to Konsa. That triple-up would lock me out of getting Saka though. Plus, if Liverpool do improve, and Van Dijk has that big return potential, it's a bit more exciting than just hoping for an Arsenal clean sheet. Perhaps Konsa will offer more in this Arsenal side? Who knows.

Luckily the next two Liverpool fixtures are nice. So I can wait a few more weeks before making plans.

Tzolis.

This one always had the feel of one of those early season picks. Where a new player arrives. Everyone gets excited. Then it doesn't quite happen. Saying that though, he did look great in the Community Shield and Coventry games, and he only came off at half time as he'd picked up a yellow.

I actually really like the fixture this week. Chelsea don't look great defensively. I watched the second half of the Arsenal match on Monday. In commentary Gary Neville said that Eze looked good (after coming on for Tzolis) and might have played his way into the team. However, I wasn't too impressed. I think he can be frustrating and looked a bit hit and miss. So I'm hoping and somewhat expecting that Tzolis starts. Giving me at least one more week to weigh up his fpl worth.

Isak.

As with Gabriel, I really enjoy owning Isak as a differential. He hasn't looked sharp in the first two games, but his xG has been good, he's got himself a goal and Liverpool have looked attacking.

The smart, sensible, safe move would be to upgrade him to Haaland this week. It's still so early in the season though, and I can't resist giving him these next two games. Ipswich away, Fulham at home. It's a big gamble, but I'll be kicking myself if he does well and I don't show the patience and bravery to stick with him. My whole philosophy in going against Haaland was to have these stronger differential options in my team. If Gabriel, van Dijk and Isak all do well that's a lot of points that other managers can't get to.

Semenyo.

I mentioned this one last time. With Haaland lacking cover will Semenyo get some minutes through the middle? He tends to be a ninety minute player. So maybe he's the Man City option to go with. Especially if I'm forgoing Haaland. I think Foden has looked good and Cherki has started well, but minutes are always a worry. So here we have big question marks.

Lammens.

My keeper choice is looking like a mistake at the moment. United haven't looked impressive at the back. On the flip side, there isn't really an obvious alternative. Plus, I wouldn't be wasting a transfer anyway. When I wildcard I'll naturally switch to two £4.5m keepers, in preparation for the bench boost. Right now there's little point worrying.

Players That I Don't Own

Sangaré.

If I was wildcarding I'd probably have Sangaré. That defcon is so powerful across a season, especially when it's fixture proof - as hard fixtures offer precisely that opportunity to do those defensive things. I've already missed out on two price rises, so this is one where I'm in danger of losing a tempo and falling behind the herd. Hopefully he disappoints.

De Cuyper.

This one's a little bit dangerous. As it's one of those where, if you don't own him, the tendency is to think, "There's no point getting him in now, he'll lose his place soon." Then he just keeps starting. Another where I'm hoping he disappoints.

Tarkowski.

One of my favourite fpl players. I don't think I'll be bringing him in, but he's always on my radar.

Palmer & Rogers.

I want both these players. Next week I'll have the two free transfers to bring them in. The only problem is I'll have to downgrade Fernandes. Part of the non-Haaland plan is being able to move between these big midfielders, but ideally I'd like to leave Fernandes and switch between the others. So maybe I'll just go for one instead of two. We'll see how things look after this gameweek.

Wissa.

I actually had Wissa in my very first draft when I returned to fpl. I think he's a really good pick this season. My current plan means I can't really bring him in however. He'll only become an option when I choose to wildcard. The one saving grace is that I think Newcastle's goals have been very precise. For want of a better word. The goals have been very low xG. The sort of goals where the attackers have had to do everything perfectly to score the goal. So I suspect they've overperformed a little.

Szoboszlai.

I should really mention Szoboszlai as well, given how he punished me in GW1. It's one of those where I'm just not feeling it, but I see him in so many teams. I understand the logic. He has a lot of routes to points. It feels boring and underwhelming though. I think partly it's psychological. Not having Haaland means I have money for the midfield. So I feel this need to have explosive players. To maximise upside. Perhaps I need to think a little harder.

Anyway, we're all set for GW3 either way, and I'm looking forward to it. I often hear people say that it feels "scary" to go against Haaland, or other highly owned players. I really don't feel that though. For me, these weeks where I get to go massively differential are the most exciting. I'll be in work tomorrow afternoon when the Man City game takes place. I'll go on my break at around 5pm and check the scores. If it's horrendous it'll be, "Oh well, I'll give Match of the Day a miss tonight. Back to work." I won't dwell on it. If it goes well I'll be buzzing and I'll have a little spring in my step.

I often see content creators talk about the effect the game has on their mental state. I do understand the disappointment. I can't pretend I don't feel it. However, I think I'm lucky, as I have other interests. So if the fpl isn't going great I just switch off and turn my attention elsewhere. I then come back four or five days later, refreshed, closer to the deadline. I also think it's good to manage your expectations. I know Haaland could smash three or four goals this week and leave me in the dust. So I'm prepared for that reality. Likewise, my idea of victory is somewhat more muted.

If Haaland scores thirteen points and Cherki gets eight I'll see that as a win, or at least a draw. Even though I'll be ten points down. As I'm hoping the rest of my side can make up the difference. If not this week, then at least in the weeks to come.

Some weeks it's just about survival.

The problem is there are quite a few good fixtures for Haaland in the upcoming calendar. Meaning even if I survive this one there'll be more danger to come. The pain for me - and my ego - will come not in having a bad week, but in hitting the wildcard and throwing in the towel.

Right now I'm enjoying being a little contrarian though.

Every Game A Revolution

It feels like every single game shifts the narrative. Haaland scores two: "Let's ditch the United players." Fernandes grabs a hattrick: "Uh oh, maybe we should keep him?" Tzolis looked fantastic during GW1. Hauled off at halftime GW2 - suddenly he looks like one to avoid.

And that's before we get to the transfer news.

Consequently, I'm trying to be patient.

That City Central Midfield

Firstly, I need to make note of the City midfield situation. They've signed Enzo Fernandez. This is after signing the Moroccan midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi. So now they have options in that department. Especially with Fernandez, who's a readymade Premier League midfielder. This all makes my concerns over that area of the field a bit redundant. (Though I guess it remains to be seen how things pan out. Anderson remains a question mark - is he title-winning quality? Will Fernandez gel and fit in?)

Nevertheless, it's looking better, and the odds on City being truly impressive have improved.

On top of this they've also signed Ndiaye. This means there's now more competition in the wide areas. Making the minutes for Foden/Semenyo/Cherki less certain.

The one position where there isn't clear competition is up front. Where it's essentially Haaland and no one else.

So Haaland's minutes seem to be the one bankable option. Making him look even more essential.

(I wonder if Semenyo becomes the second choice in that position? That's an interesting thing to keep an eye on. He hasn't looked like a great FPL asset in the first two gameweeks, but if he starts on the right then moves up top after 75 minutes when Haaland gets taken off that's a bit more attractive.)

All in all my "No Haaland" strategy is looking less attractive. I basically need City to be bad in general for it to work. As if they're good it might be even harder to cover Haaland now. Even if he isn't quite worth the £15.5m price tag when compared to captain options from other clubs. And that in of itself is a big and quite unlikely if.

That Said..

..I'm still going Haaland-less this week.

My plan was to just do Mbeumo to Cherki, and I think that's what I'll stick with.

After Tzolis getting taken off I have considered other options. One was to upgrade Tzolis to Cherki and downgrade Joao Pedro to Wissa. Then wildcard in GW4 to get Joao Pedro back.

I'd lose a bit of value selling Joao Pedro though. Plus, I'd essentially be wasting an extra transfer just to improve my team for this week. Furthermore, I'd probably be wildcarding into a non-Haaland side! (As, in spite of everything, I still like taking the other side of the ledger on this one.) Then I wouldn't have a wildcard left to fix that problem going forward.

(I've also considered the option of getting Haaland this week by downgrading Fernandes to Gross and upgrading Isak. But, likewise, that instinctively doesn't appeal to me. I'd rather keep Fernandes and Isak this week and still have two free transfers next week to get the Chelsea guys.)

A really bold move would be to make no transfers. I'm a little loathe to take Mbeumo out. Everton haven't looked great defensively.

I also don't think Coventry have been as bad as the results have suggested. They weren't too bad against Arsenal. They were just outclassed. In fact, the game was very similar to the Community Shield game where Arsenal outclassed City. I didn't watch the Hull defeat, but from the highlights and the stats it seems that Hull did a bit of a smash and grab on them.

Coventry bullied the Championship last season, now they're having to adapt to being underdogs. Whereas Hull were undogs for the entirety of last season. Perhaps it'll take Coventry a few games to get going.

The problem with not making a transfer though is the lack of captain. Cherki looks in form, whereas Semenyo and Foden look a bit too lightweight. Isak has Ipswich, but surely they won't concede another hatful.

So I think it has to be Cherki. I need to be patient, but not so patient that I don't bring in any City players at all. That might be going a bit too far with my wait and see strategy.

Haaland and Tempo

As I type it's Sunday morning and we're halfway through GW2. The players I own haven't done too badly. Foden two assists. Semenyo one. Isak a goal. It's only van Dijk that's let the side down with a one-pointer. However, in the wider scheme of things I am doing badly ..as I don't own Haaland, nor the twenty-six points his captaincy would've delivered.

So now I'm hoping Fernandes can match him this afternoon. And it's hope rather than expectation.

Consequently, the cogs are turning..

I'm at a crossroads. Do I wildcard to get Haaland? Or do I show more patience and continue Haaland-less?

At the start of the season I mentioned tempo. In the chess sense. I fear if I don't wildcard I'll lose it. That I'll end up too many moves behind. Patience is all well and good, but if there's a clear mistake - and going without Haaland might be a big one - the sooner fixed the better. Especially when Man City have Coventry at home. So why wait?

The problem is, I have another plan. I could just get Cherki.

One transfer. Mbeumo to Cherki. Sememyo, Foden, Cherki against Coventry. Captain Cherki.

It really appeals to the contrarian in me.

I'd then still have two free transfers the week after to get Palmer and Rogers. (With that Haaland money I have the freedom to go big in midfield.)

On top of this, Liverpool have Ipswich next, so I'd like to keep Isak.

I know what I want to do. Is it wise though?

I feel a lot now depends on this Man Utd v Ipswich game. How good Fernandes does or doesn't look. How bad or otherwise Ipswich are.

Thankfully, I'm actually off work this weekend, so I can watch it. Let's hope it's a good game.

GW1 Complete (Nearly): Mixed Feelings

We've pretty much finished GW1. Chelsea are still to play, and I have Joao Pedro, but he's so highly owned it's almost moot.

I don't know whether to see this week as a success or a lucky escape. Fernandes and Haaland both blanked, so my captaincy decision paid off. A massive three points earnt there. From the highlights it looked as though Haaland should've scored, so it feels a bit jammy. Though, saying that, Liverpool looked attacking in their highlights too. Both Isak and Haaland had chances but looked rusty.

In the end it was Szoboszlai that hurt me with the late penalty. (I'm really glad I was at work for that one, as I'd have been hoping it was Isak's and the disappointment would've wounded me.)

Generally people's bench boosts looked a bit underwhelming too, which was a bonus. (Except those with De Cuyper, who justified the bench boost on his own with 17 points.)

I can now just roll my team over for GW2, assuming no injuries emerge. Then, after that second round of data and observation, I can make a few decisions on my path forward.

Man City Midfield

Interestingly, the Manchester City midfield did end up being the talking point. With Guehi starting instead of Kovacic. The general consensus seems to be that Guehi did well, though I suspect that's largely a consequence of the bar of expectation being so low. It also helps that he scored a goal. Either way, it's hard to imagine someone who was a Crystal Palace centre half just a year ago suddenly becoming a world class midfielder. Sometimes these things happen in football, but the odds are stacked against it.

On top of this, Anderson now has a yellow flag. So central midfield is clearly an issue. I wish I'd seen the game and not just the highlights to get a better sense of the performance. For me this is the big question with Haaland. Ultimately it's the team he's in that justifies the price. We know he's going to score, but he's not going to get three or four in a game if he's only getting one or two chances. Thankfully we have another gameweek to assess things.

GW1: Team Reveal

First, I'll further flesh out why I'm going without Haaland.

[Note: This may be cope. Helping me to justify a terrible decision post-hoc.]

I mentioned the price in the last post. £15.5m is a huge price. I'm surprised he's an automatic default in so many teams given the price. It makes me wonder what price it would take to get his ownership below 50%. £16m? £17m? £18m?

Then there are the wider questions around Man City.

Pep gone. Rodri gone. (An underappreciated) Bernardo Silva gone.

How will Maresca do? I'm sure he's a decent manager, but at the same time I don't think Chelsea fans are devasted that he's gone.

I like Elliot Anderson - I actually had him in my first draft. Aside from FPL there's a big question mark over him in purely footballing terms though. A really good player, yes. A title-winning world class player? That remains to be seen.

What isn't in doubt is that Kovacic is a bit average. Again, a good Premier League midfielder. Certainly not a bad player. But not world class.

So, for me, that midfield, if that's the midfield two, has question marks. I think with Bernardo Silva gone a lot now relies on Foden. I think he has to start as the number ten. He's the one player who threads the midfield lines. So that's interesting to me.

Now I'm not saying City will become a bad team if the midfield is a touch subpar. I'm sure they'll still be impressive. However, there's a difference between being good and being really good. Between beating teams 2-1 and beating teams 4 or 5 nil.

What type of City will we see?

Perhaps they'll get a new manager bounce? Perhaps they'll be worse? Perhaps there'll be little difference to last season? It's hard to say. If I had to put my money somewhere I'd say slightly worse though.

Liverpool

With Liverpool there are similar questions. Though, in my opinion, it's hard to see Liverpool being worse than they were last season. So going Isak over Haaland is exciting for me. It's obviously a gamble, but one that pays off handsomely if it does work out.

I also have van Dijk. Which is another nice bonus made possible by not having Haaland.

Who I don't have is Szoboszlai. As with Haaland, this is a decision that could hurt me given how well-owned he is. He's easy to bring in though, given my midfield, so as long as I'm not too stubborn that shouldn't be a problem.

My Team

So, let's have a look at my team.

I'm well hedged on City with Semenyo and Foden in there. Can they cover Haaland? Probably not when taking captaincy into account. Almost certainly if captaincy is taken out of the equation.

It's interesting that their combined cost matches Haaland's single price.

I've also had O'Reilly in drafts at times. However, I don't like the uncertainty over his starts. On top of this, I think the easiest way to get Haaland in GW3 is to downgrade Fernandes to a cheap mid to upgrade Isak. So it's probably worth keeping that third spot free.

I have three Arsenal, which pleases me. Tzolis feels like one of those picks where a new player arrives in the Premier League and everyone gets excited. Then they fail to live up to the hype. I really liked the look of him in the Community Shield game though, and his goal involvement track record is pretty spectacular - albeit in foreign leagues (we've seen similar things before - Timo Werner springs to mind).  So my expectations are low and I see it as a fun little punt.

My Bench

My bench is very cheap - in classic FPL mode. With so many people bench boosting early it feels like a little luxury having a super cheap bench.

As I've noted before, I plan on saving the chips and using them on the fly as things unfold.

There's a high possibility that I could be wildcarding in GW3 if the Haaland decision proves to be a disaster. Which could in turn trigger a bench boost. Though that doesn't appeal to me. I'd rather use it later.

It's even less likely I'll be using the free hit early, as I don't like using it in the first five or six weeks. Mainly because I think it loses you a tempo. I'm using tempo in the chess sense - not that I'm a particularly good chess player. That is, it costs you a move early in the game when getting your pieces positioned on the board is important. If you use the free hit you don't get a free transfer for that particular week. So after four or five weeks you've had one less free transfer than everyone else. At a time when transfers are really important as you adapt to the new information those early weeks provide. (This is assuming you haven't wildcarded early, making it irrelevant anyway. Hence if I need a chip in GW3 it'll be the wildcard for this very reason.)

So that's where I am. Now it's just a case of (hopefully) enjoying the weekend.

As I finish up the one change I'm considering is a Gabriel captaincy. Hull do look like they'll be the whipping boys, but will they get thrashed at home on the opening day of the season? Surely they'll be a bit fired up for it. Likewise, will Coventry score away from home at Arsenal?

Plus, I'm off work today, but in over the weekend. So I'll get to watch this Arsenal game tonight. Why not truly roll the dice and go differential?

..Okay, let's do it.

The Smug One Returns

Oh, am I late again?

Surely it's perfect timing. There's still a week to go. Plus, I've at least got my badge sorted..

A smug little fox. I had my best season last year. I won my mini league. I'm the golden one. So I'm turning up confident.

[..hold on, I'll go and make another cup of tea, then I'll get to my actual plans. I was out last night, so I'm having a lazy Sunday morning. I'm listening to The Beekeeper by Tori Amos - an underrated album, ideal for such circumstances]

Haaland???

My plan is to go without Haaland. I won't share my actual team just yet as it's liable to change over the coming days. (Today's Community Shield should help to enlighten things.)

There are two reasons I'm planning on going without Haaland. Firstly, it's just my natural style. How can I resist being the black sheep? It's my natural tendency.

Secondly, that price difference! I can save 6.5m by going with Isak. Someone with near-Haaland like potential. Though, admittedly, much less likelihood of delivering that. He could do well. He (and Liverpool) could be unimpressive. Whereas Haaland kind of has a track record when it comes to these things.

Nevertheless, it's a gamble I like.

(No) Chip Strategy

I've been watching a bit of FPL content over the last week or so and it seems to be all about the chips. Early bench boosts, questions over when to wildcard, possible free hits.

Needless to say, I'm not thinking about any of these things. I discussed this at the start of last season and my thoughts remain similar.

Veteran FPL players are very used to planning chip use. It's ingrained. You saved your chips for the second half of the season (forward planning in of itself), then planned their use to navigate the blanks and doubles. Something with MASSIVE upside. Especially over casually players who either didn't know or didn't care about double gameweeks.

Now we have chips for the first half of the season as well, and that desire to plan remains. Yet the blanks and doubles aren't there to necessitate that.

So my question is: where's the upside?

And I actually think the upside comes in not planning. In using these chips as problem solvers or afterburners that you can turn on when an opportunity presents itself.

For example, let's say you have Gabriel, but he gets suspended for one game. You can use your free hit that week to navigate that problem. Instead of using one transfer to take him out and another to bring him back.

In turn, saving those two frees means you have more leeway to use the bench boost if you still have it. (I think if you have three or four transfers rolled you can bench boost whenever you fancy it - this is a big challenge for me, as I do find it hard to roll them.)

Enjoy The Bench Boost!

I totally understand how much of a headache the bench boost can be, but the whole point of the chips is that they add a bit of fun. I'm determined to just enjoy it. How many times did I say, "Wow, this would be a great bench boost!" in the days before we had two of them. Now I get to indulge that urge at some point during the first half of the season. I just need to be a bit chill about it and not be too much of a perfectionist. Just vibe it out.

Similar with the triple captain. In a way this is how the chips are supposed to be used. The blanks and doubles are an aberration of fixture pile ups, and it's almost a form of cheating to use these chips as get out of jail free cards. In an ideal season, with no out of place fixtures, the chips would just be fun things to use any particular week you felt an instinctive urge to use them. Like instinctively hitting the afterburner in a race around a Mario Kart track.

At the start of the season my instincts haven't fully kicked in yet. I've literally never seen a lot of these cheapie bench options play. So it feels like forcing things to even think along these lines.

Though, saying this, if Haaland scores a hattrick and the people bench boosting smash it, I'll find myself 50 points down after GW1. Therefore, take my opinions with a pinch of salt it you happen to be reading this. My badge should've definitely been a black sheep. Not a haloed fox with a golden crown.