Wildcard Ready ..and Jungle Instincts

Okay, my wildcard is all set.

A classic 4-4-2 formation.

Konsa, a little boringly, starts ahead of Barry and Barnes. Palmer has snatched the armband.

I'm really liking this team and everything feels right ..which is usually the precursor to tragedy.

Let's not be negative though.

Team Value

One unintended consequence of this wildcard is that I've picked up a lot of team value. I say unintended as it's something I never really care too much about. When you have a slightly differential style it's hard to always be on the right side of the price changes.

This time I seem to be with the current though. I hit the wildcard on Saturday night and since then I've caught quite a few increases. The only players in slight danger of dropping are Fernandes and Gabriel. So that could take the sheen off things. Not that it really matters. Again, it's not really how I play the game. However, saying that, I have been talking about tempo this season, and I can't help but be slightly enamoured with the thought that this wildcard might have set things up nicely. Getting the right players at the right price. We can but dream.

Finally, I always talk about instinct too. Sometimes I feel unsure. My instinct might lean slightly in one direction, but my thought processes lead somewhere else. When I hit the wildcard though I just had a very strong overall sense that it was the right time to do it.

It's really interesting to me how these things work. I'm always so fascinated by this interplay between mental analysis and gut feeling. Sometimes things just come together. Normally it's the head versus the heart, but sometimes it's the head with the heart. Or at least the head happy to let the heart take the driving seat.

I love these moments of in-the-moment-ness.

Of course, it doesn't just apply to fpl, but all aspects of life. Everywhere a course of action needs to be decided. Often there's so much inner-conflict - waiting, inaction, weighing things up, wondering. Then sometimes - whoosh - you just know. You don't think, you do.

Looking back to last Saturday it's clear why I had that vibe.

- I wanted both Rogers and Palmer, but only had one free transfer.

- I'd watched Liverpool on the Friday and Szoboszlai had really impressed on the eye test.

- The opportunity was there to get Konsa at £4.4m.

- I'd brought Sangaré in, but it wasn't a move I was happy with. (The whole point of going without Haaland was to have expensive attacking midfielders. So it wasn't right for me. I wasn't feeling it.)

- I had the opportunity to get De Cuyper before yet more price rises.

- Semenyo was going to drop in price that night.

So there was a list of reasons. All of which I was aware of to some degree. Nevertheless, when I hit the wildcard it wasn't a checklist decision. It was an in the moment decision. Had it been a considered decision I'd have waited until Sunday morning. Or more likely Monday, after all the gameweek fixtures had finished. But it was a "Now's the right time to do this" feeling.

It's fascinating how the body/mind processes information like this. Giving a feeling of what's right, as opposed to a chain-of-logic-derived mental 'answer'. It makes sense too. If you were out in the wild getting chased by a tiger you wouldn't have time to write a checklist and consider every option.

This isn't to say the checklists are bad. Spending time doing your homework - learning the jungle terrain - is useful. But there are moments when you have to run through the jungle, and in those moments you almost have to flow in the current of all those bits of knowledge simultaneously. You can't focus on the individual drops of water or pebbles on the riverbed, you have to feel the whole river. (We've moved from jungle to river now, I think it might be time to wrap this up, lol.)

Obviously, this all sounds a bit pretentious considering I'm just talking about hitting the wildcard in fpl. Again though, it's not just fpl. Can I apply some of these lessons to the real world? The actual jungle. Often in life I overthink things and don't trust my instinct. If I can be bold trying to climb the league in a fantasy football game why can't I exercise that same boldness in the more important areas of my life? Then again, you don't want to be too rash and emotional - as some people are. Underthinking can be a problem too. So synthesising thought and instinct is the aim and ideal I guess.

Hopefully I've managed to do it effectively in fpl at least. Sitting here nearly a full week after making the wildcard decision I'm feeling really pleased I did it. It's gained me a fair bit of team value, and had I waited until later I might not have been able to get the team I wanted. So, though I don't normally care about team value, my instinct helped me avoid the pitfall of it.

"Semenyo is going to drop in price. The tiger is coming. You better start running!"

Let's see if it gets me any points ..or if I just end up getting eaten by the Haaland tiger 🐯

[For the record my current team value is £101.1m. I'm not sure how that measures up to the average engaged manager, but for me it's unprecedented to have a team value that high after three gameweeks!]

Super Sixth Sense

I had a moment of realisation last night. Actually, you could even go as far as saying a moment of cognitive dissonance. Either way, it was a moment where I was confronted with the consequences of my own biased thinking ..and it came via the Super 6.

Normally I don't put any thought whatsoever into the Sky Sports Super 6. It's pure instinct. I click to see how I've done in the previous week, then click to enter my predictions for the upcoming round of games. Rarely do I spend more than five seconds on a particular result. In fact, sometimes if I'm in a rush I'll just put 2-0 to the team I think is most likely to win in every bracket. I spend more time looking at the mini league table than I do the actual scores.

Anyway, last night Man City won in the Champions League, 2-0. Naturally both goals from Haaland. I checked to see what I'd put. I'd went 2-1 to Porto.

"Wow, I really do have an anti-City bias," I thought.

And clearly I do. My thinking at the start of the season wasn't that illogical. Pep had gone. With the departure of Rodri and Bernardo Silva the midfield was looking a bit light. Haaland was very expensive. There were some reasons to go against the herd. However, I think in hindsight I took it too far in the other direction.

Now we're sitting here with City three for three in the Premier League. A solid win in the Champions League. Enzo Fernandez adding a bit of pep to the midfield (if you pardon the pun). And Haaland doing the business as usual.

Meanwhile I'm sitting with a rank of 2.4m.

So I think I need to admit that my strategy has failed, and I need to stop trying to cope it away. Yes, I still have the bench boost. Yes, I still have the triple captain. But realistically that's about 20 points combined. It's not that much, and I need to claw back a bit more than that.

I need to start trying to get Haaland in my side.

Nevertheless ..here's my current wildcard team.

The great man remains absent.

C'mon, he is expensive.

I haven't completely abandoned my plan. It's more that I'm trying to shake off the psychological bias. Over the next few games at least I still feel it makes sense to spread the funds. Especially as I can now see the bench boost on the horizon. (I'm thinking GW6.)

I like this as it gives me a few more weeks to assess the value of Gabriel. Likewise we get a few more weeks to judge Fernandes, Isak and the Chelsea assets. Which of these expensive players do I really want long term? I'm still not sure.

I also get a nice bench boost. On current GW6 plans it'll be Rushworth, Barry, De Cuyper and Leif Davis (who faces the shaky-looking Fulham). That week Isak and Szoboszlai face Man City. So you could argue they're not optimal. Perhaps even bench-able. However, at the moment I really don't mind that fixture. It's at home and I don't think Man City are impervious defensively (hopefully that's not my continuing anti-City bias). Personally I wouldn't bench those players, but even if I did I'd happily bench boost them anyway.

The trickiest decision has been choosing the two 4.5m keepers. None of them fill me with much hope. Verbruggen seems the obvious one, especially with this week's fixture. After that it's a coin toss. Ideally I'd prefer Petrovic, but the games don't rotate well. Plus he'd have Chelsea for the bench boost. So I've went Rushworth. I still feel it's too early to sufficiently judge the promoted clubs, so I'm taking a punt on Coventry having the potential to defy their early results. After all, they have faced City and Arsenal in the first three. The only downside is that he'll face Newcastle, and consequently Harvey Barnes, when I bench boost. You can't have it all ways though.

We'll see where things are in GW6.

GW7

My hope is to now just roll transfers until GW7. Inevitably things won't work out that simply, but if they do it'll be a huge bonus. As then I can potentially navigate to Haaland post-bench boost for his game against Ipswich. The other options are to free hit that week, or to just go against Haaland again. All options are on the table (my mental biases permitting), and by that time we'll have another three weeks of games to get a better picture.

The remaining decision this week is captaincy. Which I'm really not sure about. I defaulted to Joao Pedro instinctively. However, Palmer has penalties and more routes to points. Then again, Isak faces Fulham. It's a tough one.

Of course, you wouldn't be surprised if Haaland outscores them all. The one silver lining is that he played 90 mins in City's win last night, whereas Semenyo came off after 60. So, though he'll no doubt start, what with it being a derby, there's the realistic possibility that he comes off early. Especially if City already have the game in the bag.

Plus, with so many moving to Chelsea assets the danger isn't quite as high. Still, just not owning him could prove to be my undoing once again 😶

Going Against Haaland: The Result

It didn't go well, but it didn't go that badly either.

41 points :/

The one thing that annoys me is that I took out Tzolis for Sangaré. That cost me five points and a free transfer. It annoys me as it's one of those decisions where I went against my natural instinct and buckled under the fear. I felt that he would start, but I played it safe and deferred to other people.

Avoiding Haaland and captaining Cherki obviously didn't work out either (especially as the sacrificed Mbeumo scored). However, I don't have any regrets about that, as it was what I wanted to do. It was definitely my own decision, and it wasn't too far off coming good. Isak delivered. Van Dijk grabbed a clean sheet. I just needed a bit more from the others.

It was lucky that Haaland didn't get more. Then again, Cherki hit the post as well. Foden not starting was also a touch unlucky. I suspected Coventry wouldn't be as bad as people thought, and that proved true. So, though my gamble didn't pay off, it wasn't quite as stupid as it looked, and though I've missed out on points my ego remains somewhat intact.

Wildcard ACTIVE.

I've now hit the wildcard. It just felt like the right time to do it. My team remains Haaland-less. I think the main thing that pushed me in this direction was watching the Liverpool performance. Szoboszlai owners were very unfortunate to come away with nothing. He had multiple shots at goal. Almost had a penalty, and wasn't too far off defcon either. In contrast, Liverpool defensively still didn't look rock solid, and I feared for the Van Dijk clean sheet. So switching those two felt desirable.

Naturally I'm now planning for bench boost too. GW6 looks appealing.

I'll no doubt tinker quite a bit between now and the deadline.

Update: Two Transfers

I've made two transfers before the deadline instead of my planned one. I've lost my nerve on Tzolis. I was expecting him to start, but so many others - including people better at predicting line-ups than me - are leaning towards Eze. So, with a spare transfer sitting there, it seems sensible to move to a safer option.

I've gone with Sangaré, the template pick. On the one hand it narrows the difference between me and everyone else, and stops me missing out on a value player. On the other it now means I'll only have one free transfer next week. Meaning only one extra Chelsea player.

I could do with Liverpool doing well later on today. If I'm sitting with two blanks before we even get to Saturday it might be a long weekend. Though, saying that, Bruno could save me again with another super Sunday.

Questions, questions, questions..

I'm posting a fair bit this season. Very engaged! Hopefully it continues. I didn't actually share my GW2 score in that last post, so I'll do that here. Then I'll list some of the remaining questions I have. Things I feel still haven't been resolved in these first two weeks.

GW2: 110 points (avg. 81)

My GW3 team will look identical, except Mbeumo will become Cherki (team news permitting). Cherki will also be captain.

So, my questions..

Gabriel.

This is a tricky one, as clean sheets look good; defcon looks good, but the attacking threat feels a little diminished. Mainly because Arsenal have continued the trend of taking short corners. So, with the hefty price tag, there's definitely a decision to be made.

If Konsa usurps Mosquera, and the consensus seems to be that he will, then that's a huge saving if you're just looking for that Arsenal clean sheet potential. Gabriel needs much more to justify the price jump.

Then again, does he? Maybe you just get both and let the price tags average out. It's very nice owning Gabriel. It feels like you have a huge advantage over people who don't own him. If a few goals do come as well, then it's a massive differential. So I really don't want to lose him ..but, that extra money would help to get to Haaland.

Van Dijk.

This one's similar. Defcon looks decent. Clean sheets not so much. Goal threat always good.

It's highly unlikely I'll be taking Califiori out any time soon. So at the moment Van Dijk is the one I'd be most eager to downgrade to Konsa. That triple-up would lock me out of getting Saka though. Plus, if Liverpool do improve, and Van Dijk has that big return potential, it's a bit more exciting than just hoping for an Arsenal clean sheet. Perhaps Konsa will offer more in this Arsenal side? Who knows.

Luckily the next two Liverpool fixtures are nice. So I can wait a few more weeks before making plans.

Tzolis.

This one always had the feel of one of those early season picks. Where a new player arrives. Everyone gets excited. Then it doesn't quite happen. Saying that though, he did look great in the Community Shield and Coventry games, and he only came off at half time as he'd picked up a yellow.

I actually really like the fixture this week. Chelsea don't look great defensively. I watched the second half of the Arsenal match on Monday. In commentary Gary Neville said that Eze looked good (after coming on for Tzolis) and might have played his way into the team. However, I wasn't too impressed. I think he can be frustrating and looked a bit hit and miss. So I'm hoping and somewhat expecting that Tzolis starts. Giving me at least one more week to weigh up his fpl worth.

Isak.

As with Gabriel, I really enjoy owning Isak as a differential. He hasn't looked sharp in the first two games, but his xG has been good, he's got himself a goal and Liverpool have looked attacking.

The smart, sensible, safe move would be to upgrade him to Haaland this week. It's still so early in the season though, and I can't resist giving him these next two games. Ipswich away, Fulham at home. It's a big gamble, but I'll be kicking myself if he does well and I don't show the patience and bravery to stick with him. My whole philosophy in going against Haaland was to have these stronger differential options in my team. If Gabriel, van Dijk and Isak all do well that's a lot of points that other managers can't get to.

Semenyo.

I mentioned this one last time. With Haaland lacking cover will Semenyo get some minutes through the middle? He tends to be a ninety minute player. So maybe he's the Man City option to go with. Especially if I'm forgoing Haaland. I think Foden has looked good and Cherki has started well, but minutes are always a worry. So here we have big question marks.

Lammens.

My keeper choice is looking like a mistake at the moment. United haven't looked impressive at the back. On the flip side, there isn't really an obvious alternative. Plus, I wouldn't be wasting a transfer anyway. When I wildcard I'll naturally switch to two £4.5m keepers, in preparation for the bench boost. Right now there's little point worrying.

Players That I Don't Own

Sangaré.

If I was wildcarding I'd probably have Sangaré. That defcon is so powerful across a season, especially when it's fixture proof - as hard fixtures offer precisely that opportunity to do those defensive things. I've already missed out on two price rises, so this is one where I'm in danger of losing a tempo and falling behind the herd. Hopefully he disappoints.

De Cuyper.

This one's a little bit dangerous. As it's one of those where, if you don't own him, the tendency is to think, "There's no point getting him in now, he'll lose his place soon." Then he just keeps starting. Another where I'm hoping he disappoints.

Tarkowski.

One of my favourite fpl players. I don't think I'll be bringing him in, but he's always on my radar.

Palmer & Rogers.

I want both these players. Next week I'll have the two free transfers to bring them in. The only problem is I'll have to downgrade Fernandes. Part of the non-Haaland plan is being able to move between these big midfielders, but ideally I'd like to leave Fernandes and switch between the others. So maybe I'll just go for one instead of two. We'll see how things look after this gameweek.

Wissa.

I actually had Wissa in my very first draft when I returned to fpl. I think he's a really good pick this season. My current plan means I can't really bring him in however. He'll only become an option when I choose to wildcard. The one saving grace is that I think Newcastle's goals have been very precise. For want of a better word. The goals have been very low xG. The sort of goals where the attackers have had to do everything perfectly to score the goal. So I suspect they've overperformed a little.

Szoboszlai.

I should really mention Szoboszlai as well, given how he punished me in GW1. It's one of those where I'm just not feeling it, but I see him in so many teams. I understand the logic. He has a lot of routes to points. It feels boring and underwhelming though. I think partly it's psychological. Not having Haaland means I have money for the midfield. So I feel this need to have explosive players. To maximise upside. Perhaps I need to think a little harder.

Anyway, we're all set for GW3 either way, and I'm looking forward to it. I often hear people say that it feels "scary" to go against Haaland, or other highly owned players. I really don't feel that though. For me, these weeks where I get to go massively differential are the most exciting. I'll be in work tomorrow afternoon when the Man City game takes place. I'll go on my break at around 5pm and check the scores. If it's horrendous it'll be, "Oh well, I'll give Match of the Day a miss tonight. Back to work." I won't dwell on it. If it goes well I'll be buzzing and I'll have a little spring in my step.

I often see content creators talk about the effect the game has on their mental state. I do understand the disappointment. I can't pretend I don't feel it. However, I think I'm lucky, as I have other interests. So if the fpl isn't going great I just switch off and turn my attention elsewhere. I then come back four or five days later, refreshed, closer to the deadline. I also think it's good to manage your expectations. I know Haaland could smash three or four goals this week and leave me in the dust. So I'm prepared for that reality. Likewise, my idea of victory is somewhat more muted.

If Haaland scores thirteen points and Cherki gets eight I'll see that as a win, or at least a draw. Even though I'll be ten points down. As I'm hoping the rest of my side can make up the difference. If not this week, then at least in the weeks to come.

Some weeks it's just about survival.

The problem is there are quite a few good fixtures for Haaland in the upcoming calendar. Meaning even if I survive this one there'll be more danger to come. The pain for me - and my ego - will come not in having a bad week, but in hitting the wildcard and throwing in the towel.

Right now I'm enjoying being a little contrarian though.

Every Game A Revolution

It feels like every single game shifts the narrative. Haaland scores two: "Let's ditch the United players." Fernandes grabs a hattrick: "Uh oh, maybe we should keep him?" Tzolis looked fantastic during GW1. Hauled off at halftime GW2 - suddenly he looks like one to avoid.

And that's before we get to the transfer news.

Consequently, I'm trying to be patient.

That City Central Midfield

Firstly, I need to make note of the City midfield situation. They've signed Enzo Fernandez. This is after signing the Moroccan midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi. So now they have options in that department. Especially with Fernandez, who's a readymade Premier League midfielder. This all makes my concerns over that area of the field a bit redundant. (Though I guess it remains to be seen how things pan out. Anderson remains a question mark - is he title-winning quality? Will Fernandez gel and fit in?)

Nevertheless, it's looking better, and the odds on City being truly impressive have improved.

On top of this they've also signed Ndiaye. This means there's now more competition in the wide areas. Making the minutes for Foden/Semenyo/Cherki less certain.

The one position where there isn't clear competition is up front. Where it's essentially Haaland and no one else.

So Haaland's minutes seem to be the one bankable option. Making him look even more essential.

(I wonder if Semenyo becomes the second choice in that position? That's an interesting thing to keep an eye on. He hasn't looked like a great FPL asset in the first two gameweeks, but if he starts on the right then moves up top after 75 minutes when Haaland gets taken off that's a bit more attractive.)

All in all my "No Haaland" strategy is looking less attractive. I basically need City to be bad in general for it to work. As if they're good it might be even harder to cover Haaland now. Even if he isn't quite worth the £15.5m price tag when compared to captain options from other clubs. And that in of itself is a big and quite unlikely if.

That Said..

..I'm still going Haaland-less this week.

My plan was to just do Mbeumo to Cherki, and I think that's what I'll stick with.

After Tzolis getting taken off I have considered other options. One was to upgrade Tzolis to Cherki and downgrade Joao Pedro to Wissa. Then wildcard in GW4 to get Joao Pedro back.

I'd lose a bit of value selling Joao Pedro though. Plus, I'd essentially be wasting an extra transfer just to improve my team for this week. Furthermore, I'd probably be wildcarding into a non-Haaland side! (As, in spite of everything, I still like taking the other side of the ledger on this one.) Then I wouldn't have a wildcard left to fix that problem going forward.

(I've also considered the option of getting Haaland this week by downgrading Fernandes to Gross and upgrading Isak. But, likewise, that instinctively doesn't appeal to me. I'd rather keep Fernandes and Isak this week and still have two free transfers next week to get the Chelsea guys.)

A really bold move would be to make no transfers. I'm a little loathe to take Mbeumo out. Everton haven't looked great defensively.

I also don't think Coventry have been as bad as the results have suggested. They weren't too bad against Arsenal. They were just outclassed. In fact, the game was very similar to the Community Shield game where Arsenal outclassed City. I didn't watch the Hull defeat, but from the highlights and the stats it seems that Hull did a bit of a smash and grab on them.

Coventry bullied the Championship last season, now they're having to adapt to being underdogs. Whereas Hull were undogs for the entirety of last season. Perhaps it'll take Coventry a few games to get going.

The problem with not making a transfer though is the lack of captain. Cherki looks in form, whereas Semenyo and Foden look a bit too lightweight. Isak has Ipswich, but surely they won't concede another hatful.

So I think it has to be Cherki. I need to be patient, but not so patient that I don't bring in any City players at all. That might be going a bit too far with my wait and see strategy.

Haaland and Tempo

As I type it's Sunday morning and we're halfway through GW2. The players I own haven't done too badly. Foden two assists. Semenyo one. Isak a goal. It's only van Dijk that's let the side down with a one-pointer. However, in the wider scheme of things I am doing badly ..as I don't own Haaland, nor the twenty-six points his captaincy would've delivered.

So now I'm hoping Fernandes can match him this afternoon. And it's hope rather than expectation.

Consequently, the cogs are turning..

I'm at a crossroads. Do I wildcard to get Haaland? Or do I show more patience and continue Haaland-less?

At the start of the season I mentioned tempo. In the chess sense. I fear if I don't wildcard I'll lose it. That I'll end up too many moves behind. Patience is all well and good, but if there's a clear mistake - and going without Haaland might be a big one - the sooner fixed the better. Especially when Man City have Coventry at home. So why wait?

The problem is, I have another plan. I could just get Cherki.

One transfer. Mbeumo to Cherki. Sememyo, Foden, Cherki against Coventry. Captain Cherki.

It really appeals to the contrarian in me.

I'd then still have two free transfers the week after to get Palmer and Rogers. (With that Haaland money I have the freedom to go big in midfield.)

On top of this, Liverpool have Ipswich next, so I'd like to keep Isak.

I know what I want to do. Is it wise though?

I feel a lot now depends on this Man Utd v Ipswich game. How good Fernandes does or doesn't look. How bad or otherwise Ipswich are.

Thankfully, I'm actually off work this weekend, so I can watch it. Let's hope it's a good game.