Wildcard Delirium - GW37

It's literally 6 o'clock in the morning. I'm never up this early, but the sudden onset of warm weather has made it difficult to sleep. So now I'm tired, but wide awake. I've did some final tinkering to my GW37 wildcard in this semi-delirium ..removing Haaland to bring in Son. 

Yes, I'm gambling. So I better post my team now, otherwise I won't be in the mood to do it once it all comes crashing down. That Fulham vs Manchester City game kicks off in about six hours. Meaning my season could effectively be over before the 3 o'clock kick offs even begin.

Before we look at my team though, let's re-cap, and find out how we got into this desperate state.

Lately..

My last post was just before Double Gameweek 34. I went into that one feeling confident, but with no Crystal Palace players. It was very much a week of two halves. After the first round of games I'd dropped from 60k to 110k. However, I then clawed all that back, plus a bit more, thanks to a Foden brace, a Semenyo goal and Branthwaite coming off my bench with 20 points. So amazingly I ended the week at 52k.

It was very much the Undertaker meme.

However, in weeks 35 and 36 it's been steady decline. Not quite buried in the coffin, but definitely getting there. It certainly feels more "I Know It's Over" by the Smiths than Wrestlemania at the moment.

GW35 was the mini double, and I went into that just with Palmer. So though I didn't do too badly overall (59 points), I was always going to lose ground on people with multiple doublers. Then GW36 was equally "decent, but not enough" (94 points). I didn't have Jackson (that was a pretty big dividend for people that brought him in solely with the double in mind), and I captained Saka over Haaland 😖 - which cost me 11 points.

So now I'm sitting at 82k with two weeks left. In a situation where about 85% of people in the top 100k will be bench boosting. Plus, I'm about 50 points behind the guy who's top in my mini league.

So..

How My Team Is Looking Without Haaland

My thinking is differential. De Bruyne and Callum Wilson in - Wilson captain ! ..and no Haaland.

The plan is also to do Gordon to Salah next week as one final dice roll, if I somehow survive this week. Before my early morning deliberations I did have Haaland in, and Son was absent. However, I really want Son, especially for that last game against Sheffield United, so I thought, "Okay, you're not going to captain Haaland, let's just go all in against him."

Of course, I've still got to sit around waiting for early team news, which is frustrating. I'd like to just hit 'save your team' and stop thinking about it. It's always a little annoying to write one of these blog posts only to change your mind again before deadline.

I sound a little miserable, but I'm actually enjoying the season. I do love getting the opportunity to go against the herd. It's more just the anticipation. I'm one of these people that just switches off if I have a bad gameweek, so I know the weekend (and season) could be over pretty quickly for me.

Template 'til Christmas

I've actually already started thinking about next season. My plan is to do my "Template 'til Christmas" experiment. As I've mentioned on this blog before, usually I start the season badly then come on strong in the second half, so I really like the idea of seeing how my season would go if I just followed the template like other people tend to do. Only to jettison it once things begin to naturally diverge over the Christmas period. Though saying this, this season hasn't really followed that pattern. I had a decent start this year, but have been treading water these last two or three months. Although you could say it was my unorthodox use of the bench boost in the first half of the season that's left me bench-boost-less now, and out of kilter with the chips.

Also, it's worth adding that the variance with the chips has been incredible this season. Free Hitting in the big blank saw every single player blank, whereas Free Hitting in the double was off the charts. Mateta getting 29 points alone was crazy. Hopefully the bad memories of this season will put people off using it in the blank next season.

Also, if I do my "Template 'til Christmas" plan, I'll have to figure out how to decide what the template actually is each week, and how I track the changes. That might require some thought. It may not be as obvious as it at first appears. There's definitely a psychological aspect, so I'll have to try to stop my own biases slipping in.

Another issue is the AI. I wonder if the various AIs are actually making the template worse. Before it was the "wisdom of the crowd," but now that collective opinion is skewed somewhat by appeals to algorithm. I suspect the AIs aren't quite good enough yet to be better than people en masse. After all, they're only as good as their inputs, and they're not literally watching the games and reading between the lines of press conference statements.

I'd really like to see some deep dives on the AI. How do they work? What are they picking up and not picking up? How successful have they been? I think people are a little too in awe to be truly sceptical though. It's one thing thinking you know better than an fpl content maker, it's another having the arrogance to think you can outsmart a calculator.

It'll be interesting to see if AI completely conquers the game, or if just remains as a tool that can be used with caveats.

Anyway, let's get on with GW37. At least with Haaland completely out my side I won't be sat watching him play with mixed feelings. The Callum Wilson captaincy feels pretty reckless, but it definitely feels fun too. ..Easy to say that now though.

Double Gameweek 34 - A Few Differentials

As per usual this season, it's been a while since I last posted. That was way back on the cusp of Free Hit GW29 -- which didn't exactly go well: 19 points (average was 12). Every single player blanked, though I did get a tiny green arrow from it.

We're now on the cusp of Double GW34.

In between we've had:

GW30: 50 points (avg. 47)

GW31: 64 points (avg. 46)

GW32: 60 points (avg. 56)

GW33: 74 points (avg. 58)

It's not been great. I've dropped from around 38k to 60k.

It feels like I'm treading water, so could do with a bit of luck and magic as we head into this final run-in.

My Double Team

I'm actually quite happy with this team. I've managed to get a team of doublers without chips or hits. It also has a few differentials.

Semenyo and Mac Allister are players that could do well that are fairly low owned. Obviously there are big minutes worries with Semenyo, especially with him being out recently (his red flag only lifted yesterday). However, he's a player I always really like the look of when I see Bournemouth play. I like having players that are genuine eye test picks, it makes things much more enjoyable. I probably would've had him earlier given his price, were it not for the unavoidable Solanke/Watkins/Haaland front three.

I brought him in for Watkins in GW31, with this double in mind, so I was disappointed to see him absent through injury/flu last week. Hopefully he's coming back at the perfect time.

I also like having Foden. Obviously, it's just the one game, and there's the danger he gets benched for it, but the upside is so nice. It also fits with my plan going forward, which is to use my wildcard in GW37. Essentially as a Free Hit (though with one eye on GW38).

Next week is also a mini-double, with Chelsea and Spurs having two fixtures. I already have Gusto and Palmer. It's possible I could also bring in Nicolas Jackson for Solanke, though it's much more likely I'd be doing Mac Allister to Gordon with my free transfer.

I won't be bringing any Spurs players in. I don't really like the fixtures, so I'm hoping having a 'steady as she goes' team for GW35 & 36 works out as a differential against people that are wildcarding in GW35. Not having Son will be a big concern. Likewise not having Isak could continue to damage me, as it has recently. It's sink or swim now though. Either I get a bit of luck and push on, or my season just fizzles out.

I'm enjoying going against the grain at the moment, but I might not be too keen on fpl for the remainder of the season if things go against me.

Free Hit GW29: No James Maddison

It's been a while since I relayed my gameweek scores, so I'll quickly run through them:

GW21: 54 points (-4)         (avg. 47)

GW22: 62 points                (avg. 48)
GW23: 74 points                (avg. 57)

GW24: 82 points                (avg. 62)

GW25: 92 points                (avg. 73)        (*triple captained Haaland - 30 points)

GW26: 53 points                (avg. 46)

GW27: 85 points                (avg. 63)
GW28: 53 points                (avg. 44)

My current rank is: 39,455

Gameweek TWENTY NINE.

Needless to say, after my last post, I will be free hitting this week. My team currently looks like this:

I may make some changes tonight/tomorrow morning. Though as I'm working tomorrow I'll miss the build up to the deadline, so it should be settled before my head hits the pillow tonight.

The big omission is Maddison. This is clearly a risk, especially with him being so highly owned by others. However, I feel it's a fairly pleasant differential.

The decision to choose two Spurs defenders instead of two mids was initially an instinctive one. Having thought about it I feel it makes sense from a logical point of view too though. I like having players with attacking potential in all positions. So when it came to choosing defenders this week Porro, Udogie and Doughty all naturally stood out. Given the dearth of games alternatives aren't too obvious. Whereas with Maddison, though he's obviously a great pick, and someone I would've chosen just as instinctively when looking at midfielders, there are players in midfield that can potentially match him.

Douglas Luiz, Elanga, Kudus, Bailey. All could potentially match him in any given gameweek. In fact, my big worry is going with the wrong alternative. Luiz could've very easily been in this side.

Of course, Maddison is still the better pick, and the danger is he gets double digits. That would probably do some real rank damage. The flip side offers a lot of upside though, and if he gets the odd assist or goal I can live with it if my guys deliver.

It also makes things a tad more exciting.

Free Hit Psychology

Firstly, a caveat: this is just my personal opinion. People that delve in the mathematics of fpl deeper may know better. So what follows is just my modus operandi. Perhaps my thinking may be helpful or interesting to others, but do take it with a pinch of salt.

Anyhow, my feeling is that there is a heavy psychological bias against free hitting in blank gameweeks, which presents an opportunity for those that go that route.

In comparison to free hitting in a double, free hitting in a blank feels incredibly boring, as there are only a handful of games - and those games tend to be uninspiring. The bigger teams and big name players being absent.

On top of this, it also feels like you're not getting much extra by using the free hit. You might be able to get 8, 9, even 10 players for the blank by managing your transfers. With a (-4) hit or two, perhaps even a full eleven. Including an optimal captain. So, the feeling is, why waste the chip. Especially if you can save it for a double gameweek, where you can potentially select eleven very good players, each with two games.

So, using it in a double gameweek is much more fun and exciting. The ceiling that week if it pays off obviously much higher too.

But..

Here are the upsides to using it for the blank:

1) You don't have to wreck your team planning for the blank. By free hitting you can just continue sailing along peacefully with your team. Choosing the players you genuinely want, rather than restricting yourself to players that get a game in the blank. Essentially you can just ignore the blank if you're free hitting.

2) You have an optimal team for the blank gameweek, when most other managers won't have that. Especially if the popular move is to free hit later. Meaning eleven players that each have real potential to return, when most managers have to make-do and mend with players that would normally only be bench options.

3) You have a bench (and a decent vice captain). Usually we don't have to delve into the bench, but there's always the possibility of a benching or an injury. So if a key player does go missing, by having a good first bench option, you're instantly up on most other managers.

4) A bit of a continuation of that last one - you have eleven players. Not especially exciting, but many people going into that week will not.

5) This is my personal favourite. Hits feel like a (-2) for managers that don't free hit, but for you those hits are still a (-4).

 ..if a manager isn't free hitting the temptation to take a (-4) is enhanced in a blank, as the player they're bringing in will almost certainly get 2 points just for playing. Which is 2 points more than having no player. So it makes sense to bring in a player as you only lose 2 points if they blank (as opposed to a normal week - where you'd lose the (-4) along with whatever extra points the player you were taking out would've earned).

However, from your point of view, as a free hitter, those managers are still spending 4 points. Meaning you're instantly up 4 points on every manager that buys one transfer; 8 points up on everyone buying two; 12 points on those buying three. That's before the first game even kicks off.

So..

..all in all, you have the extra hit points, the extra points for having more players fielded (even if it's just a few appearance points), the extra security of a bench, and you'll have some optimal differentials that can potentially score decent points that week.

It's the closest you get to having a week where you're guaranteed to outperform most other managers.

Free Hitting In A Double

Obviously, in counterpoint, the ceiling is much higher in a double. However, the outperformance isn't as guaranteed, as most people will still have a strong team for the double, as the players needed tend to be the players people want long term anyway (unlike in the blank). Also, the good single gameweek players people have will still have the potential to outscore or match the doublers. (We've seen this week how easily that can be the case.) Also, other chips can be used that week.

So, personally, I always enjoy free hitting in the big blank. It feels like such a simple solution to such an obvious problem, and the more people that choose to navigate it with hits because that doesn't excite them, the happier I feel about doing it.

Again though, this is just my way of thinking about things, and there may well be flaws in my thinking. Plus, as ever, no two teams, or two seasons, are ever the same. So the reality is, it's never really that simple anyway.

Into The Weeds

Another minus 4 this season. I've taken out Son and Trent Alexander-Arnold to bring in Saka and Estupinan. My original thinking, a week or so ago, was to take a minus 4 to bring in Saka/Foden and Haaland, but Haaland remaining out for the FA Cup tie quashed that idea. Either way though the decision to simply leave Salah on my bench has remained consistent.

I'll be going into GW21 with Salah benched and 10 million in the bank, so looking at things simply on a squad value level it doesn't look too good. You'd think having that much of the budget benched and unused would come at a heavy cost. However, instinctively I don't feel bad about it at all. The money allows me to easily get Haaland in should the opportunity arise, and keeping Salah feels like a fun gamble. It's unlikely Egypt will go out early, but if they do I get a massive dividend. Plus, I will want him back as soon as he is back. It's all well and good saying I'll take him out and put the money to one side to bring him back, but things rarely work out like that. Other issues inevitably crop up. So I'm just going to keep him.

With TAA it was a little different. A lot of people will no doubt keep him, which could prove sensible (of course, what's right and wrong always depends upon your own particular circumstances, so there's rarely a true right and wrong). Going into this run of games the one player I feared was Estupinan, so this gave me a nice excuse to bring him in. I also don't like holding injured players. I could've taken out Senesi instead, who is suspended this week, but the Bournemouth fixtures are okay and I need a decent squad if I'm going to carry a non-playing Salah.

This is how I'm looking for GW21. You'll see Saka is captain (I'm hoping he finally goes big just as I bring him in - it would be just my luck this season given the good luck I've had in other weeks). You'll also see a Brownhill in the starting eleven. This may look like madness alongside the decision to keep Salah ..that spot could easily be a Foden/Richarlison/etc. Even if Brownhill just gets his usual two points though it would mean I'd need a six point swing this week with the minus 4. So I'm actually quite happy to play him. It's another one of these fun little differentials that make the game interesting. Burnley vs Luton is the first game tomorrow night, so as I'm at work it'll give me a little surprise to look forward to at the end of my shift.

On top of this, if I find myself with a luxury transfer in the coming weeks I'll be able to switch Brownhill to Garnacho. So novel ways of managing Salah's absence abound.

I'm also really looking forward to the Newcastle vs Man City game this weekend (thankfully I'm off work on the Saturday), which could be a great game. Hopefully Gordon and Alvarez both do well ..and we see some De Bruyne and Haaland.

2024: The Perfect Start

Since my last post things have went pretty well. This week (GW20) looks to be a very minor red arrow, but prior to that it's been green all the way. I'll share the gameweeks below. (Excuse the endless flags as I've only just took the screenshots.)

68 points (-4) (avg. 40)

63 points (-4) (avg. 44)

 

57 points (avg. 36)

50 points (avg. 38)

85 points (avg. 59)

Trent came in this week for Trippier, not that it made much difference. I got lucky bringing in Solanke for the hat-trick.

I've kinda managed getting a good balance between copying others and making my own instinctive judgements. I was really pleased with the 5 points I got for Gordon this week. I very nearly started Senesi instead, but after some thought I realised it would've been far too kneejerk. Gordon (and Trippier) have both been great for me overall, so completely ditching both would be overkill. Especially given Gordon's price. I looked at the Liverpool and Man City fixtures and thought, "Actually, y'know what, playing Gordon in both isn't too bad at all really given his price. And if I get one return over the two games, which is possible, I'll be more than happy."

So with one in the bag already it feels quite good. Weirdly I felt better about that one assist than all of Salah's captaincy returns.

Going Forward

Now we have decisions to make with both Son and Salah off to tournaments and Haaland still missing in action. Fortunately we have a break before the next gameweek, so plenty of time to let things ferment.

I have some ideas, but nothing is set in stone yet. I'll do another post before the deadline hopefully to get into the weeds a bit. We're entering the planning stage with blanks and doubles creeping onto the horizon.

My current rank is: 37,310

My run from GW13 has been really good.

Hopefully I can keep the momentum going in 2024.

FPL Investments

If you want growth you need investment. A calculated loan on the back of future earnings, to invest in improvements that will add value over time, and grow that future income. Here at fplzebub we're all about widening our pool of talent and upgrading our infrastructure. To take the necessary steps to ensure we don't just compete, but stay ahead of our rivals. Hence today we're announcing a MINUS 4 to sign Ollie Watkins, ahead of the big Christmas period.

(We'd also like to welcome to the team Josh Brownhill.)

The Story So Far..

Before we get to that though, let's take a look at past earnings.

GW13: A slightly sullen 45 points

(avg. 46)

GW14: Exceeding analyst expectations,

80 points (avg. 54)

GW15: Once again outperforming the

market, 43 points (avg. 35)

These impressive results over the last quarter (sorry, I'll knock the market speak on the head now) have resulted in a huge uptick in rank. I'm currently sat at 126k, which I'm very pleased with.

The flags, along with the blank of GW18, have presented me with a bit of a dilemma though. I always begrudge wasting points on transfers. It usually feels so profligate. However, this time I feel it's worthwhile in order to keep on top of things.

Obviously I needed to transfer out the injured Mbeumo. I also wanted to bring in Watkins though, especially for the blank. Originally I was planning to just downgrade Mbeumo this week, then make the move for Watkins after the Arsenal game. (Or even wait until next week to make both transfers - I would've been more than happy to play Archer this week.) Then the news of Son's injury appeared.

On top of this I have just the right amount of money in the bank to do Archer & Mbeumo to Brownhill & Watkins. So I'm sailing a little close to the wind on point-ones. Emptying the bank completely would likewise make it impossible to transfer out Al-Dakhil, should I need to. Who's now dropped down to 3.9m ..annoyingly.

Blank GW18

I want to keep hold of both Alvarez and Haaland, so after using those initial two transfers for Waktins and Brownhill I would've been left with just one transfer to muddle through GW18. With the other bench spot being taken up by the now non-playing Al-Dakhil.

A minus 4 this week really helps to smooth things over though.

Ollie Watkins is in place. Brownhill is a handy playing bench option (if Son does miss out this week), with half-decent fixtures, who can play in GW18. Plus, I now have two more transfers before then to fix issues. If Son is fine it'll be a case of downgrading a keeper to Dubravka and upgrading Al-Dakhil, getting me a bit of bench coverage. If not (or if other issues appear) I've got some leeway to navigate things (hopefully).

Son to Saka would be a pretty straightforward move, so in some ways Son going would remove another potential source of damage.

I've been a little lucky these last few weeks. I am going very much with my instincts now though, so it feels like we're in the slipstream. Skating or surfing along the wave of the season. With a bit more luck things will continue like this.

How it's currently looking.

Oh, and as one final aside. I'm really enjoying owning the Burnley and Luton keepers. That single clean sheet I got from Trafford, plus the odd save points I've been picking up, mean I've actually ended up better off than I would've been with Areola. Albeit only slightly.

Obviously, on paper it looks a complete waste of money, and were it not for the bench boost earlier I certainly wouldn't have had either. In fact, the plan was always to downgrade at least one the moment a free transfer became available. It's worked out quite differently however, and it's added a little bit of variance. A fun little differential I get to watch each week. Both teams are looking a tiny bit more competitive in the league too.