I've made my bed, I'm going to have to lie in it.

..also, the bench boost is cancelled.

Joao Pedro is seemingly out. That puts me a man down and rules out a bench boost. It's quite fortunate in a sense, as it means I can just play Szoboszlai - a fairly sturdy replacement. It was Szoboszlai sitting on my bench that leaned me into wanting to use it in the first place. So this is a potential net positive, as the other fixtures my bench had weren't ideal. It's also saved me a transfer.

As for the bed I'll have to lie in that's not looking so rosy. Yesterday I could've used two transfers (meaning a minus four) to bring in Haaland. I could've upgraded Joao Pedro and downgraded Fernandes to a £4.4m midfielder. Alas, that's no longer possible, as Haaland increased in price last night.

I wouldn't have made that move anyway, though I did briefly consider it. In fact, I knew Haaland was rising (I've been using the price change feature a lot in the last few weeks). It does make Haaland even more expensive when I do get him though 😬

I think I've criticised Man Utd enough this week, but they really do seem to be in crisis mode. So captaining a Utd player, away from home, when everyone else has Haaland, feels ominous. Again though, I've made my bed, so I just have to roll with it. Hopefully Sunderland can do me a favour.

Other than the captaincy I quite like my team. The goalkeeper isn't ideal, and the Arsenal fixture isn't the best. However, saying that, I really don't think having a triple-up on Arsenal is that risky. Everyone has Calafiori, and many have Konsa now too. So if Arsenal lose the clean sheet it's just Gabriel versus whichever third defender other people have. Even with a concession Gabriel could get defcon or an attacking return. So losing the clean sheet isn't as damaging as it would appear on first viewing. It's not like having a triple-up when everyone else has no one from that team, or just one.

Bournemouth played away in Europe last night, so the Liverpool fixture isn't awful. Barnes and Barry are somewhat hopeful picks - I'm not expecting much, but the fixtures are nice. So there are reasons to be optimistic. Even if Utd lose again they could lose 4-3 and Fernandes could get a haul. Anything could happen.

And tonight's Chelsea game just feels like a bonus. Tough fixture for Palmer and Rogers, but I certainly don't mind owning either.

A.I.M. - Artificial Intent Metric

That Manchester United vs Manchester City game really got me thinking about intent. And how important it is.

I don't want to pick on Marcus Rashford - I could use other United players - but his lack of intent on Sunday in comparison to Bruno Fernandes was quite striking, as he did get on the ball in good positions. Yet never looked like doing anything.

An Example

Let's say two players put speculative crosses into the box from similar positions. At similar points in a play's development. Let's say from the lefthand side of the eighteen yard box, and both crosses go into the same dangerous area of the pitch.

(Player A and Player B

putting near identical crosses into the box)

Now statistically these both go down the same. AI analysis, or just general data analysis, scores them both the same. Two crosses into a dangerous area.

However, in reality, though they're both just percentage balls into the box, the intent on the ball matters greatly.

We know this from watching games - the eye test - and we also know it from personal experience of playing football.

If I'm just having a kick-about and I put a ball into the box - la di da - like it doesn't matter. Then that's completely different to a game where it's important.

"We're 1-0 down, we desperately need a goal. The clock's ticking. This needs to count."

The difference is both subtle and huge. Thanks to that purposeful intent there may be a little bit of extra speed and aggression on the ball, making it harder for the keeper to judge. The slight difference in the angle of the cross as a consequence may make it favour the attackers slightly more than the defenders.

Again, we can witness this difference in intent (intensity) when we watch games. I could clearly see the difference between Fernandes and Rashford (and the other United players). When Fernandes played a cross or forward pass you felt something might happen. Whereas Rashford's shots and crosses were just hopeful. There was no real belief or urgency. Of course, this is all subjective too. Another person might watch the same game and judge things differently. They might think it was Rashford that had intent on the ball and that Fernandes lacked it. Or that Fernandes was just as lacking as Rashford.

This is why it's hard for data alone to gauge these things. We're trying to read subtleties, including things like body language. You could have deeper data. You could for example take into account the speed and angle of the cross. But even then it's not that simple. A pass or cross might need to be slower not faster, and the intent of the player helps them execute it accurately, or with the perfect timing.

So, anyway, I'm thinking that maybe I should use the eye test to ascribe intent ratings to players (and the teams they play for - as obviously the players they're playing with affect the potential as well).

For example, Haaland would be a 9 or 10. In fact, I've probably undercounted for this so far this season. I've been looking at other players with similar or close xG, such as Isak. Forgetting the fact that Haaland is a monster, with superhuman levels of intent and will to score.

So Haaland is a 10, and he's surrounded by players who have (to varying degrees) a similar level of intent. Therefore he's a 10 in a City side I'd score around 8.

Whereas Bruno is a 9 or 10. Let's say a 9. But in a team that's much lower. Let's give a generous 6.

This is actually why I brought Szoboszlai in. On the eye test he looked full of intent. Like he wanted to make an impact on the game, not just make up the numbers. Driving through midfield with the ball. Aggressive shots at goal - nearly all on target. Maybe Liverpool, like United, aren't quite top tier either though. He hasn't had the points so far, so we'll see how it plays out. Had I not watched Liverpool play Ipswich I wouldn't have him in my team. Will I benefit from this in the long term, or would I have been better off not seeing the game?

It's interesting. I'm definitely someone who values the eye test. So maybe this is a way to quantify my impressions a little better.

The Sunday Fixtures

Another post in quick succession. (I'm really enjoying my bread and circuses at the moment.)

77 points

This is how my gameweek finished, sans the final fixture. Currently I'm on a green arrow, but I'm not fully confident it can go down as a good week points-wise. It's been a high scoring week. I've seen a few people pass the 100 mark. So seventy-seven, though impressive in most gameweeks, could be hovering above the average when it's all tallied up.

I'm fairly happy though.

The Sunday Fixtures in Review

I have to start in reverse with that Utd/City game. Man Utd were awful. I felt sorry for Bruno Fernandes at times. He didn't play badly, but he was the only one you could say that about. The rest of the side were frighteningly average. We've known this for some time, but seeing them come undone against a 10-man City, at Old Trafford, made it stark.

The defenders made so many mistakes. Even just simple passes seemed a struggle. Dalot and Maguire in particular. And up top it was the same. They just looked ineffective. Rashford got in good positions but didn't know what to do with it. He's kind of like a talented headless chicken. Cunha, who has great feet to be fair, looked undeadly - if that's a word.

Whereas with the City attackers there's this feeling that they're likely to score when they get a chance, with United it's always hopeful shots.

We've skied it over the bar, we've hit the side netting. Oh well, maybe next time.

Like actually scoring doesn't matter that much. If you've had a few attempts that's what counts.

I'm being very harsh here, but it's almost like I watched the game through Fernandes' eyes being a Fernandes owner, and I felt for him. You look at all the good Premier League defenders at clubs like Bournemouth, Leeds, Sunderland, Brighton and so on. Likewise the effective attacking players at such clubs - Gross, Gibbs-White, Dewsbury-Hall, Tavernier. The list goes on, we all own them. And you wonder why a club like Manchester United has worse players. Why a player like Bruno Fernandes has to make the most of such an average situation year after year.

The whole team looked lost after Haaland scored. It was as if it was City that had eleven players on the pitch. (It was frustrating to watch - perhaps why I'm taking out my frustration here.)

Needless to say it answered the question I had. Fernandes or Haaland? It's definitely Haaland, through no fault of Fernandes.

I'll keep Fernandes (and Isak) for the next two weeks though. GW7 will be the switch over. So who knows what we'll see next week. I'll probably even captain Fernandes. (It'll be with a sense of defeat though 😔)

Coventry 0 - 5 Brighton

This fixture was easier to watch, as I got very lucky. The two clean sheets were very fortunate, as Coventry had chances. Though the massive haul from Gross left a slight bitter aftertaste.

This was another game where one side went down to ten men (Coventry). In some ways they were unlucky. Not only did they suffer the sending off, but they also conceded two quite brilliant goals. The fourth from Dunk was a wonder strike, and the first from Kostoulas was incredibly well manoeuvred. They also conceded a penalty, that Gross annoyingly dispatched. 

Still, in spite of the bad luck, they looked like a Championship side. It was like watching a cup game between teams from different tiers. The effort was equal, but the quality wasn't. Again, Coventry created chances, but they weren't clinical. Whereas Brighton had that touch of class in the final third.

It's difficult to say how much of the score was Brighton's brilliance and how much was Coventry's lack thereof. As I noted in my previous post, Brighton now face Arsenal next, so it's not ideal for my bench boost. Should I just play Verbruggen and De Cuyper and hope for the best? They have just scored five, and they do at least have home advantage. Then again, Arsenal will surely score at least one, and they don't concede many. So both attacking and defensive returns are quite unlikely.

At the moment I'm favouring just hitting the bench boost regardless. Why not? It'll be fun. You never know what might happen. I could transfer one of the two out, but as things stand I'd rather roll the transfer.

All in all I feel things are finally starting to take shape.

Bench Boost GW5 ??

I think I might bring my bench boost forward to GW5. Sunderland looked superb against Arsenal last night and it made having De Cuyper and Verbruggen facing them at the Stadium of Light look a lot less attractive. Also, Fulham kept a clean sheet against Liverpool, making the Leif Davis fixture look a bit less appetising. He scored 14 points yesterday, so I've probably missed the haul either way. Nevertheless, Everton doesn't seem that much worse as a fixture now.

(Plus, I'm trigger-happy, I really want to use the bench boost. I can't resist 😈)

I also have Szoboszlai sat on my bench going into GW5, so that's pushing me in the same direction.

The problem is, Brighton face Arsenal, which isn't appealing either. Consequently I might use my one free transfer to take out De Cuyper or Verbruggen. I could do De Cuyper to Muharemovic (home to Palace), or Verbruggen to Kinsky (home to Villa).

It all makes these Sunday fixtures doubly worth watching. (Did I mention I'm typing this on Sunday morning - in the middle of GW4?)

Coventry vs Brighton gives me a good opportunity to assess the two Brighton assets - and Brighton in general.

Then it's United vs City. Aka Bruno vs Haaland. I'm becoming a bit of a stuck record constantly restating how going against Haaland could damage me. As I sit here mid-gameweek it's all too apparent though.

I'm pleased with my gameweek so far, but once again this is ultimately what will decide things. I need Fernandes to compete with Haaland.

It seems like the average could be high this week ..players like Saka, Raya and Gibbs-White have already notched points for other people. Matching my Gabriel differential. On top of that a lot of people will have captained Joao Pedro or triple-captained Palmer, which is another seven or five points I've missed out on. So I'd happily take any sort of green arrow.

Whatever the points outcome I'm happy with the wildcard. I feel like three Chelsea attackers and three Arsenal defenders is a lock for me now. After that it's just the other five spots. Watching the Liverpool highlights didn't dissuade me from owning their players too much. Though, yes, the question mark needs to remain hanging over Isak's head.

The core decision is essentially Isak + Fernandes vs Haaland + Cheaper Mid.

In a way I think Fernandes is what makes the decision. As if he consistently gets returns like he did last season then he allows the luxury of Isak. Whereas if he's miles behind Haaland I'll have to get Haaland regardless of Isak. (Unless Isak suddenly becomes massively captainable, which at the moment he clearly isn't.)

So United vs City is an interesting fixture that puts this entire question into sharp focus. The ultimate real time eye test.

Wildcard Ready ..and Jungle Instincts

Okay, my wildcard is all set.

A classic 4-4-2 formation.

Konsa, a little boringly, starts ahead of Barry and Barnes. Palmer has snatched the armband.

I'm really liking this team and everything feels right ..which is usually the precursor to tragedy.

Let's not be negative though.

Team Value

One unintended consequence of this wildcard is that I've picked up a lot of team value. I say unintended as it's something I never really care too much about. When you have a slightly differential style it's hard to always be on the right side of the price changes.

This time I seem to be with the current though. I hit the wildcard on Saturday night and since then I've caught quite a few increases. The only players in slight danger of dropping are Fernandes and Gabriel. So that could take the sheen off things. Not that it really matters. Again, it's not really how I play the game. However, saying that, I have been talking about tempo this season, and I can't help but be slightly enamoured with the thought that this wildcard might have set things up nicely. Getting the right players at the right price. We can but dream.

Finally, I always talk about instinct too. Sometimes I feel unsure. My instinct might lean slightly in one direction, but my thought processes lead somewhere else. When I hit the wildcard though I just had a very strong overall sense that it was the right time to do it.

It's really interesting to me how these things work. I'm always so fascinated by this interplay between mental analysis and gut feeling. Sometimes things just come together. Normally it's the head versus the heart, but sometimes it's the head with the heart. Or at least the head happy to let the heart take the driving seat.

I love these moments of in-the-moment-ness.

Of course, it doesn't just apply to fpl, but all aspects of life. Everywhere a course of action needs to be decided. Often there's so much inner-conflict - waiting, inaction, weighing things up, wondering. Then sometimes - whoosh - you just know. You don't think, you do.

Looking back to last Saturday it's clear why I had that vibe.

- I wanted both Rogers and Palmer, but only had one free transfer.

- I'd watched Liverpool on the Friday and Szoboszlai had really impressed on the eye test.

- The opportunity was there to get Konsa at £4.4m.

- I'd brought Sangaré in, but it wasn't a move I was happy with. (The whole point of going without Haaland was to have expensive attacking midfielders. So it wasn't right for me. I wasn't feeling it.)

- I had the opportunity to get De Cuyper before yet more price rises.

- Semenyo was going to drop in price that night.

So there was a list of reasons. All of which I was aware of to some degree. Nevertheless, when I hit the wildcard it wasn't a checklist decision. It was an in the moment decision. Had it been a considered decision I'd have waited until Sunday morning. Or more likely Monday, after all the gameweek fixtures had finished. But it was a "Now's the right time to do this" feeling.

It's fascinating how the body/mind processes information like this. Giving a feeling of what's right, as opposed to a chain-of-logic-derived mental 'answer'. It makes sense too. If you were out in the wild getting chased by a tiger you wouldn't have time to write a checklist and consider every option.

This isn't to say the checklists are bad. Spending time doing your homework - learning the jungle terrain - is useful. But there are moments when you have to run through the jungle, and in those moments you almost have to flow in the current of all those bits of knowledge simultaneously. You can't focus on the individual drops of water or pebbles on the riverbed, you have to feel the whole river. (We've moved from jungle to river now, I think it might be time to wrap this up, lol.)

Obviously, this all sounds a bit pretentious considering I'm just talking about hitting the wildcard in fpl. Again though, it's not just fpl. Can I apply some of these lessons to the real world? The actual jungle. Often in life I overthink things and don't trust my instinct. If I can be bold trying to climb the league in a fantasy football game why can't I exercise that same boldness in the more important areas of my life? Then again, you don't want to be too rash and emotional - as some people are. Underthinking can be a problem too. So synthesising thought and instinct is the aim and ideal I guess.

Hopefully I've managed to do it effectively in fpl at least. Sitting here nearly a full week after making the wildcard decision I'm feeling really pleased I did it. It's gained me a fair bit of team value, and had I waited until later I might not have been able to get the team I wanted. So, though I don't normally care about team value, my instinct helped me avoid the pitfall of it.

"Semenyo is going to drop in price. The tiger is coming. You better start running!"

Let's see if it gets me any points ..or if I just end up getting eaten by the Haaland tiger 🐯

[For the record my current team value is £101.1m. I'm not sure how that measures up to the average engaged manager, but for me it's unprecedented to have a team value that high after three gameweeks!]

Super Sixth Sense

I had a moment of realisation last night. Actually, you could even go as far as saying a moment of cognitive dissonance. Either way, it was a moment where I was confronted with the consequences of my own biased thinking ..and it came via the Super 6.

Normally I don't put any thought whatsoever into the Sky Sports Super 6. It's pure instinct. I click to see how I've done in the previous week, then click to enter my predictions for the upcoming round of games. Rarely do I spend more than five seconds on a particular result. In fact, sometimes if I'm in a rush I'll just put 2-0 to the team I think is most likely to win in every bracket. I spend more time looking at the mini league table than I do the actual scores.

Anyway, last night Man City won in the Champions League, 2-0. Naturally both goals from Haaland. I checked to see what I'd put. I'd went 2-1 to Porto.

"Wow, I really do have an anti-City bias," I thought.

And clearly I do. My thinking at the start of the season wasn't that illogical. Pep had gone. With the departure of Rodri and Bernardo Silva the midfield was looking a bit light. Haaland was very expensive. There were some reasons to go against the herd. However, I think in hindsight I took it too far in the other direction.

Now we're sitting here with City three for three in the Premier League. A solid win in the Champions League. Enzo Fernandez adding a bit of pep to the midfield (if you pardon the pun). And Haaland doing the business as usual.

Meanwhile I'm sitting with a rank of 2.4m.

So I think I need to admit that my strategy has failed, and I need to stop trying to cope it away. Yes, I still have the bench boost. Yes, I still have the triple captain. But realistically that's about 20 points combined. It's not that much, and I need to claw back a bit more than that.

I need to start trying to get Haaland in my side.

Nevertheless ..here's my current wildcard team.

The great man remains absent.

C'mon, he is expensive.

I haven't completely abandoned my plan. It's more that I'm trying to shake off the psychological bias. Over the next few games at least I still feel it makes sense to spread the funds. Especially as I can now see the bench boost on the horizon. (I'm thinking GW6.)

I like this as it gives me a few more weeks to assess the value of Gabriel. Likewise we get a few more weeks to judge Fernandes, Isak and the Chelsea assets. Which of these expensive players do I really want long term? I'm still not sure.

I also get a nice bench boost. On current GW6 plans it'll be Rushworth, Barry, De Cuyper and Leif Davis (who faces the shaky-looking Fulham). That week Isak and Szoboszlai face Man City. So you could argue they're not optimal. Perhaps even bench-able. However, at the moment I really don't mind that fixture. It's at home and I don't think Man City are impervious defensively (hopefully that's not my continuing anti-City bias). Personally I wouldn't bench those players, but even if I did I'd happily bench boost them anyway.

The trickiest decision has been choosing the two 4.5m keepers. None of them fill me with much hope. Verbruggen seems the obvious one, especially with this week's fixture. After that it's a coin toss. Ideally I'd prefer Petrovic, but the games don't rotate well. Plus he'd have Chelsea for the bench boost. So I've went Rushworth. I still feel it's too early to sufficiently judge the promoted clubs, so I'm taking a punt on Coventry having the potential to defy their early results. After all, they have faced City and Arsenal in the first three. The only downside is that he'll face Newcastle, and consequently Harvey Barnes, when I bench boost. You can't have it all ways though.

We'll see where things are in GW6.

GW7

My hope is to now just roll transfers until GW7. Inevitably things won't work out that simply, but if they do it'll be a huge bonus. As then I can potentially navigate to Haaland post-bench boost for his game against Ipswich. The other options are to free hit that week, or to just go against Haaland again. All options are on the table (my mental biases permitting), and by that time we'll have another three weeks of games to get a better picture.

The remaining decision this week is captaincy. Which I'm really not sure about. I defaulted to Joao Pedro instinctively. However, Palmer has penalties and more routes to points. Then again, Isak faces Fulham. It's a tough one.

Of course, you wouldn't be surprised if Haaland outscores them all. The one silver lining is that he played 90 mins in City's win last night, whereas Semenyo came off after 60. So, though he'll no doubt start, what with it being a derby, there's the realistic possibility that he comes off early. Especially if City already have the game in the bag.

Plus, with so many moving to Chelsea assets the danger isn't quite as high. Still, just not owning him could prove to be my undoing once again 😶

Going Against Haaland: The Result

It didn't go well, but it didn't go that badly either.

41 points :/

The one thing that annoys me is that I took out Tzolis for Sangaré. That cost me five points and a free transfer. It annoys me as it's one of those decisions where I went against my natural instinct and buckled under the fear. I felt that he would start, but I played it safe and deferred to other people.

Avoiding Haaland and captaining Cherki obviously didn't work out either (especially as the sacrificed Mbeumo scored). However, I don't have any regrets about that, as it was what I wanted to do. It was definitely my own decision, and it wasn't too far off coming good. Isak delivered. Van Dijk grabbed a clean sheet. I just needed a bit more from the others.

It was lucky that Haaland didn't get more. Then again, Cherki hit the post as well. Foden not starting was also a touch unlucky. I suspected Coventry wouldn't be as bad as people thought, and that proved true. So, though my gamble didn't pay off, it wasn't quite as stupid as it looked, and though I've missed out on points my ego remains somewhat intact.

Wildcard ACTIVE.

I've now hit the wildcard. It just felt like the right time to do it. My team remains Haaland-less. I think the main thing that pushed me in this direction was watching the Liverpool performance. Szoboszlai owners were very unfortunate to come away with nothing. He had multiple shots at goal. Almost had a penalty, and wasn't too far off defcon either. In contrast, Liverpool defensively still didn't look rock solid, and I feared for the Van Dijk clean sheet. So switching those two felt desirable.

Naturally I'm now planning for bench boost too. GW6 looks appealing.

I'll no doubt tinker quite a bit between now and the deadline.

Update: Two Transfers

I've made two transfers before the deadline instead of my planned one. I've lost my nerve on Tzolis. I was expecting him to start, but so many others - including people better at predicting line-ups than me - are leaning towards Eze. So, with a spare transfer sitting there, it seems sensible to move to a safer option.

I've gone with Sangaré, the template pick. On the one hand it narrows the difference between me and everyone else, and stops me missing out on a value player. On the other it now means I'll only have one free transfer next week. Meaning only one extra Chelsea player.

I could do with Liverpool doing well later on today. If I'm sitting with two blanks before we even get to Saturday it might be a long weekend. Though, saying that, Bruno could save me again with another super Sunday.

Questions, questions, questions..

I'm posting a fair bit this season. Very engaged! Hopefully it continues. I didn't actually share my GW2 score in that last post, so I'll do that here. Then I'll list some of the remaining questions I have. Things I feel still haven't been resolved in these first two weeks.

GW2: 110 points (avg. 81)

My GW3 team will look identical, except Mbeumo will become Cherki (team news permitting). Cherki will also be captain.

So, my questions..

Gabriel.

This is a tricky one, as clean sheets look good; defcon looks good, but the attacking threat feels a little diminished. Mainly because Arsenal have continued the trend of taking short corners. So, with the hefty price tag, there's definitely a decision to be made.

If Konsa usurps Mosquera, and the consensus seems to be that he will, then that's a huge saving if you're just looking for that Arsenal clean sheet potential. Gabriel needs much more to justify the price jump.

Then again, does he? Maybe you just get both and let the price tags average out. It's very nice owning Gabriel. It feels like you have a huge advantage over people who don't own him. If a few goals do come as well, then it's a massive differential. So I really don't want to lose him ..but, that extra money would help to get to Haaland.

Van Dijk.

This one's similar. Defcon looks decent. Clean sheets not so much. Goal threat always good.

It's highly unlikely I'll be taking Califiori out any time soon. So at the moment Van Dijk is the one I'd be most eager to downgrade to Konsa. That triple-up would lock me out of getting Saka though. Plus, if Liverpool do improve, and Van Dijk has that big return potential, it's a bit more exciting than just hoping for an Arsenal clean sheet. Perhaps Konsa will offer more in this Arsenal side? Who knows.

Luckily the next two Liverpool fixtures are nice. So I can wait a few more weeks before making plans.

Tzolis.

This one always had the feel of one of those early season picks. Where a new player arrives. Everyone gets excited. Then it doesn't quite happen. Saying that though, he did look great in the Community Shield and Coventry games, and he only came off at half time as he'd picked up a yellow.

I actually really like the fixture this week. Chelsea don't look great defensively. I watched the second half of the Arsenal match on Monday. In commentary Gary Neville said that Eze looked good (after coming on for Tzolis) and might have played his way into the team. However, I wasn't too impressed. I think he can be frustrating and looked a bit hit and miss. So I'm hoping and somewhat expecting that Tzolis starts. Giving me at least one more week to weigh up his fpl worth.

Isak.

As with Gabriel, I really enjoy owning Isak as a differential. He hasn't looked sharp in the first two games, but his xG has been good, he's got himself a goal and Liverpool have looked attacking.

The smart, sensible, safe move would be to upgrade him to Haaland this week. It's still so early in the season though, and I can't resist giving him these next two games. Ipswich away, Fulham at home. It's a big gamble, but I'll be kicking myself if he does well and I don't show the patience and bravery to stick with him. My whole philosophy in going against Haaland was to have these stronger differential options in my team. If Gabriel, van Dijk and Isak all do well that's a lot of points that other managers can't get to.

Semenyo.

I mentioned this one last time. With Haaland lacking cover will Semenyo get some minutes through the middle? He tends to be a ninety minute player. So maybe he's the Man City option to go with. Especially if I'm forgoing Haaland. I think Foden has looked good and Cherki has started well, but minutes are always a worry. So here we have big question marks.

Lammens.

My keeper choice is looking like a mistake at the moment. United haven't looked impressive at the back. On the flip side, there isn't really an obvious alternative. Plus, I wouldn't be wasting a transfer anyway. When I wildcard I'll naturally switch to two £4.5m keepers, in preparation for the bench boost. Right now there's little point worrying.

Players That I Don't Own

Sangaré.

If I was wildcarding I'd probably have Sangaré. That defcon is so powerful across a season, especially when it's fixture proof - as hard fixtures offer precisely that opportunity to do those defensive things. I've already missed out on two price rises, so this is one where I'm in danger of losing a tempo and falling behind the herd. Hopefully he disappoints.

De Cuyper.

This one's a little bit dangerous. As it's one of those where, if you don't own him, the tendency is to think, "There's no point getting him in now, he'll lose his place soon." Then he just keeps starting. Another where I'm hoping he disappoints.

Tarkowski.

One of my favourite fpl players. I don't think I'll be bringing him in, but he's always on my radar.

Palmer & Rogers.

I want both these players. Next week I'll have the two free transfers to bring them in. The only problem is I'll have to downgrade Fernandes. Part of the non-Haaland plan is being able to move between these big midfielders, but ideally I'd like to leave Fernandes and switch between the others. So maybe I'll just go for one instead of two. We'll see how things look after this gameweek.

Wissa.

I actually had Wissa in my very first draft when I returned to fpl. I think he's a really good pick this season. My current plan means I can't really bring him in however. He'll only become an option when I choose to wildcard. The one saving grace is that I think Newcastle's goals have been very precise. For want of a better word. The goals have been very low xG. The sort of goals where the attackers have had to do everything perfectly to score the goal. So I suspect they've overperformed a little.

Szoboszlai.

I should really mention Szoboszlai as well, given how he punished me in GW1. It's one of those where I'm just not feeling it, but I see him in so many teams. I understand the logic. He has a lot of routes to points. It feels boring and underwhelming though. I think partly it's psychological. Not having Haaland means I have money for the midfield. So I feel this need to have explosive players. To maximise upside. Perhaps I need to think a little harder.

Anyway, we're all set for GW3 either way, and I'm looking forward to it. I often hear people say that it feels "scary" to go against Haaland, or other highly owned players. I really don't feel that though. For me, these weeks where I get to go massively differential are the most exciting. I'll be in work tomorrow afternoon when the Man City game takes place. I'll go on my break at around 5pm and check the scores. If it's horrendous it'll be, "Oh well, I'll give Match of the Day a miss tonight. Back to work." I won't dwell on it. If it goes well I'll be buzzing and I'll have a little spring in my step.

I often see content creators talk about the effect the game has on their mental state. I do understand the disappointment. I can't pretend I don't feel it. However, I think I'm lucky, as I have other interests. So if the fpl isn't going great I just switch off and turn my attention elsewhere. I then come back four or five days later, refreshed, closer to the deadline. I also think it's good to manage your expectations. I know Haaland could smash three or four goals this week and leave me in the dust. So I'm prepared for that reality. Likewise, my idea of victory is somewhat more muted.

If Haaland scores thirteen points and Cherki gets eight I'll see that as a win, or at least a draw. Even though I'll be ten points down. As I'm hoping the rest of my side can make up the difference. If not this week, then at least in the weeks to come.

Some weeks it's just about survival.

The problem is there are quite a few good fixtures for Haaland in the upcoming calendar. Meaning even if I survive this one there'll be more danger to come. The pain for me - and my ego - will come not in having a bad week, but in hitting the wildcard and throwing in the towel.

Right now I'm enjoying being a little contrarian though.

Every Game A Revolution

It feels like every single game shifts the narrative. Haaland scores two: "Let's ditch the United players." Fernandes grabs a hattrick: "Uh oh, maybe we should keep him?" Tzolis looked fantastic during GW1. Hauled off at halftime GW2 - suddenly he looks like one to avoid.

And that's before we get to the transfer news.

Consequently, I'm trying to be patient.

That City Central Midfield

Firstly, I need to make note of the City midfield situation. They've signed Enzo Fernandez. This is after signing the Moroccan midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi. So now they have options in that department. Especially with Fernandez, who's a readymade Premier League midfielder. This all makes my concerns over that area of the field a bit redundant. (Though I guess it remains to be seen how things pan out. Anderson remains a question mark - is he title-winning quality? Will Fernandez gel and fit in?)

Nevertheless, it's looking better, and the odds on City being truly impressive have improved.

On top of this they've also signed Ndiaye. This means there's now more competition in the wide areas. Making the minutes for Foden/Semenyo/Cherki less certain.

The one position where there isn't clear competition is up front. Where it's essentially Haaland and no one else.

So Haaland's minutes seem to be the one bankable option. Making him look even more essential.

(I wonder if Semenyo becomes the second choice in that position? That's an interesting thing to keep an eye on. He hasn't looked like a great FPL asset in the first two gameweeks, but if he starts on the right then moves up top after 75 minutes when Haaland gets taken off that's a bit more attractive.)

All in all my "No Haaland" strategy is looking less attractive. I basically need City to be bad in general for it to work. As if they're good it might be even harder to cover Haaland now. Even if he isn't quite worth the £15.5m price tag when compared to captain options from other clubs. And that in of itself is a big and quite unlikely if.

That Said..

..I'm still going Haaland-less this week.

My plan was to just do Mbeumo to Cherki, and I think that's what I'll stick with.

After Tzolis getting taken off I have considered other options. One was to upgrade Tzolis to Cherki and downgrade Joao Pedro to Wissa. Then wildcard in GW4 to get Joao Pedro back.

I'd lose a bit of value selling Joao Pedro though. Plus, I'd essentially be wasting an extra transfer just to improve my team for this week. Furthermore, I'd probably be wildcarding into a non-Haaland side! (As, in spite of everything, I still like taking the other side of the ledger on this one.) Then I wouldn't have a wildcard left to fix that problem going forward.

(I've also considered the option of getting Haaland this week by downgrading Fernandes to Gross and upgrading Isak. But, likewise, that instinctively doesn't appeal to me. I'd rather keep Fernandes and Isak this week and still have two free transfers next week to get the Chelsea guys.)

A really bold move would be to make no transfers. I'm a little loathe to take Mbeumo out. Everton haven't looked great defensively.

I also don't think Coventry have been as bad as the results have suggested. They weren't too bad against Arsenal. They were just outclassed. In fact, the game was very similar to the Community Shield game where Arsenal outclassed City. I didn't watch the Hull defeat, but from the highlights and the stats it seems that Hull did a bit of a smash and grab on them.

Coventry bullied the Championship last season, now they're having to adapt to being underdogs. Whereas Hull were undogs for the entirety of last season. Perhaps it'll take Coventry a few games to get going.

The problem with not making a transfer though is the lack of captain. Cherki looks in form, whereas Semenyo and Foden look a bit too lightweight. Isak has Ipswich, but surely they won't concede another hatful.

So I think it has to be Cherki. I need to be patient, but not so patient that I don't bring in any City players at all. That might be going a bit too far with my wait and see strategy.

Haaland and Tempo

As I type it's Sunday morning and we're halfway through GW2. The players I own haven't done too badly. Foden two assists. Semenyo one. Isak a goal. It's only van Dijk that's let the side down with a one-pointer. However, in the wider scheme of things I am doing badly ..as I don't own Haaland, nor the twenty-six points his captaincy would've delivered.

So now I'm hoping Fernandes can match him this afternoon. And it's hope rather than expectation.

Consequently, the cogs are turning..

I'm at a crossroads. Do I wildcard to get Haaland? Or do I show more patience and continue Haaland-less?

At the start of the season I mentioned tempo. In the chess sense. I fear if I don't wildcard I'll lose it. That I'll end up too many moves behind. Patience is all well and good, but if there's a clear mistake - and going without Haaland might be a big one - the sooner fixed the better. Especially when Man City have Coventry at home. So why wait?

The problem is, I have another plan. I could just get Cherki.

One transfer. Mbeumo to Cherki. Sememyo, Foden, Cherki against Coventry. Captain Cherki.

It really appeals to the contrarian in me.

I'd then still have two free transfers the week after to get Palmer and Rogers. (With that Haaland money I have the freedom to go big in midfield.)

On top of this, Liverpool have Ipswich next, so I'd like to keep Isak.

I know what I want to do. Is it wise though?

I feel a lot now depends on this Man Utd v Ipswich game. How good Fernandes does or doesn't look. How bad or otherwise Ipswich are.

Thankfully, I'm actually off work this weekend, so I can watch it. Let's hope it's a good game.

GW1 Complete (Nearly): Mixed Feelings

We've pretty much finished GW1. Chelsea are still to play, and I have Joao Pedro, but he's so highly owned it's almost moot.

I don't know whether to see this week as a success or a lucky escape. Fernandes and Haaland both blanked, so my captaincy decision paid off. A massive three points earnt there. From the highlights it looked as though Haaland should've scored, so it feels a bit jammy. Though, saying that, Liverpool looked attacking in their highlights too. Both Isak and Haaland had chances but looked rusty.

In the end it was Szoboszlai that hurt me with the late penalty. (I'm really glad I was at work for that one, as I'd have been hoping it was Isak's and the disappointment would've wounded me.)

Generally people's bench boosts looked a bit underwhelming too, which was a bonus. (Except those with De Cuyper, who justified the bench boost on his own with 17 points.)

I can now just roll my team over for GW2, assuming no injuries emerge. Then, after that second round of data and observation, I can make a few decisions on my path forward.

Man City Midfield

Interestingly, the Manchester City midfield did end up being the talking point. With Guehi starting instead of Kovacic. The general consensus seems to be that Guehi did well, though I suspect that's largely a consequence of the bar of expectation being so low. It also helps that he scored a goal. Either way, it's hard to imagine someone who was a Crystal Palace centre half just a year ago suddenly becoming a world class midfielder. Sometimes these things happen in football, but the odds are stacked against it.

On top of this, Anderson now has a yellow flag. So central midfield is clearly an issue. I wish I'd seen the game and not just the highlights to get a better sense of the performance. For me this is the big question with Haaland. Ultimately it's the team he's in that justifies the price. We know he's going to score, but he's not going to get three or four in a game if he's only getting one or two chances. Thankfully we have another gameweek to assess things.

GW1: Team Reveal

First, I'll further flesh out why I'm going without Haaland.

[Note: This may be cope. Helping me to justify a terrible decision post-hoc.]

I mentioned the price in the last post. £15.5m is a huge price. I'm surprised he's an automatic default in so many teams given the price. It makes me wonder what price it would take to get his ownership below 50%. £16m? £17m? £18m?

Then there are the wider questions around Man City.

Pep gone. Rodri gone. (An underappreciated) Bernardo Silva gone.

How will Maresca do? I'm sure he's a decent manager, but at the same time I don't think Chelsea fans are devasted that he's gone.

I like Elliot Anderson - I actually had him in my first draft. Aside from FPL there's a big question mark over him in purely footballing terms though. A really good player, yes. A title-winning world class player? That remains to be seen.

What isn't in doubt is that Kovacic is a bit average. Again, a good Premier League midfielder. Certainly not a bad player. But not world class.

So, for me, that midfield, if that's the midfield two, has question marks. I think with Bernardo Silva gone a lot now relies on Foden. I think he has to start as the number ten. He's the one player who threads the midfield lines. So that's interesting to me.

Now I'm not saying City will become a bad team if the midfield is a touch subpar. I'm sure they'll still be impressive. However, there's a difference between being good and being really good. Between beating teams 2-1 and beating teams 4 or 5 nil.

What type of City will we see?

Perhaps they'll get a new manager bounce? Perhaps they'll be worse? Perhaps there'll be little difference to last season? It's hard to say. If I had to put my money somewhere I'd say slightly worse though.

Liverpool

With Liverpool there are similar questions. Though, in my opinion, it's hard to see Liverpool being worse than they were last season. So going Isak over Haaland is exciting for me. It's obviously a gamble, but one that pays off handsomely if it does work out.

I also have van Dijk. Which is another nice bonus made possible by not having Haaland.

Who I don't have is Szoboszlai. As with Haaland, this is a decision that could hurt me given how well-owned he is. He's easy to bring in though, given my midfield, so as long as I'm not too stubborn that shouldn't be a problem.

My Team

So, let's have a look at my team.

I'm well hedged on City with Semenyo and Foden in there. Can they cover Haaland? Probably not when taking captaincy into account. Almost certainly if captaincy is taken out of the equation.

It's interesting that their combined cost matches Haaland's single price.

I've also had O'Reilly in drafts at times. However, I don't like the uncertainty over his starts. On top of this, I think the easiest way to get Haaland in GW3 is to downgrade Fernandes to a cheap mid to upgrade Isak. So it's probably worth keeping that third spot free.

I have three Arsenal, which pleases me. Tzolis feels like one of those picks where a new player arrives in the Premier League and everyone gets excited. Then they fail to live up to the hype. I really liked the look of him in the Community Shield game though, and his goal involvement track record is pretty spectacular - albeit in foreign leagues (we've seen similar things before - Timo Werner springs to mind).  So my expectations are low and I see it as a fun little punt.

My Bench

My bench is very cheap - in classic FPL mode. With so many people bench boosting early it feels like a little luxury having a super cheap bench.

As I've noted before, I plan on saving the chips and using them on the fly as things unfold.

There's a high possibility that I could be wildcarding in GW3 if the Haaland decision proves to be a disaster. Which could in turn trigger a bench boost. Though that doesn't appeal to me. I'd rather use it later.

It's even less likely I'll be using the free hit early, as I don't like using it in the first five or six weeks. Mainly because I think it loses you a tempo. I'm using tempo in the chess sense - not that I'm a particularly good chess player. That is, it costs you a move early in the game when getting your pieces positioned on the board is important. If you use the free hit you don't get a free transfer for that particular week. So after four or five weeks you've had one less free transfer than everyone else. At a time when transfers are really important as you adapt to the new information those early weeks provide. (This is assuming you haven't wildcarded early, making it irrelevant anyway. Hence if I need a chip in GW3 it'll be the wildcard for this very reason.)

So that's where I am. Now it's just a case of (hopefully) enjoying the weekend.

As I finish up the one change I'm considering is a Gabriel captaincy. Hull do look like they'll be the whipping boys, but will they get thrashed at home on the opening day of the season? Surely they'll be a bit fired up for it. Likewise, will Coventry score away from home at Arsenal?

Plus, I'm off work today, but in over the weekend. So I'll get to watch this Arsenal game tonight. Why not truly roll the dice and go differential?

..Okay, let's do it.

The Smug One Returns

Oh, am I late again?

Surely it's perfect timing. There's still a week to go. Plus, I've at least got my badge sorted..

A smug little fox. I had my best season last year. I won my mini league. I'm the golden one. So I'm turning up confident.

[..hold on, I'll go and make another cup of tea, then I'll get to my actual plans. I was out last night, so I'm having a lazy Sunday morning. I'm listening to The Beekeeper by Tori Amos - an underrated album, ideal for such circumstances]

Haaland???

My plan is to go without Haaland. I won't share my actual team just yet as it's liable to change over the coming days. (Today's Community Shield should help to enlighten things.)

There are two reasons I'm planning on going without Haaland. Firstly, it's just my natural style. How can I resist being the black sheep? It's my natural tendency.

Secondly, that price difference! I can save 6.5m by going with Isak. Someone with near-Haaland like potential. Though, admittedly, much less likelihood of delivering that. He could do well. He (and Liverpool) could be unimpressive. Whereas Haaland kind of has a track record when it comes to these things.

Nevertheless, it's a gamble I like.

(No) Chip Strategy

I've been watching a bit of FPL content over the last week or so and it seems to be all about the chips. Early bench boosts, questions over when to wildcard, possible free hits.

Needless to say, I'm not thinking about any of these things. I discussed this at the start of last season and my thoughts remain similar.

Veteran FPL players are very used to planning chip use. It's ingrained. You saved your chips for the second half of the season (forward planning in of itself), then planned their use to navigate the blanks and doubles. Something with MASSIVE upside. Especially over casually players who either didn't know or didn't care about double gameweeks.

Now we have chips for the first half of the season as well, and that desire to plan remains. Yet the blanks and doubles aren't there to necessitate that.

So my question is: where's the upside?

And I actually think the upside comes in not planning. In using these chips as problem solvers or afterburners that you can turn on when an opportunity presents itself.

For example, let's say you have Gabriel, but he gets suspended for one game. You can use your free hit that week to navigate that problem. Instead of using one transfer to take him out and another to bring him back.

In turn, saving those two frees means you have more leeway to use the bench boost if you still have it. (I think if you have three or four transfers rolled you can bench boost whenever you fancy it - this is a big challenge for me, as I do find it hard to roll them.)

Enjoy The Bench Boost!

I totally understand how much of a headache the bench boost can be, but the whole point of the chips is that they add a bit of fun. I'm determined to just enjoy it. How many times did I say, "Wow, this would be a great bench boost!" in the days before we had two of them. Now I get to indulge that urge at some point during the first half of the season. I just need to be a bit chill about it and not be too much of a perfectionist. Just vibe it out.

Similar with the triple captain. In a way this is how the chips are supposed to be used. The blanks and doubles are an aberration of fixture pile ups, and it's almost a form of cheating to use these chips as get out of jail free cards. In an ideal season, with no out of place fixtures, the chips would just be fun things to use any particular week you felt an instinctive urge to use them. Like instinctively hitting the afterburner in a race around a Mario Kart track.

At the start of the season my instincts haven't fully kicked in yet. I've literally never seen a lot of these cheapie bench options play. So it feels like forcing things to even think along these lines.

Though, saying this, if Haaland scores a hattrick and the people bench boosting smash it, I'll find myself 50 points down after GW1. Therefore, take my opinions with a pinch of salt it you happen to be reading this. My badge should've definitely been a black sheep. Not a haloed fox with a golden crown.

FIFA Fantasy ..England, and the World Cup in General

I haven't been posting about World Cup Fantasy, but I have been playing it, and I've finished with a rank of 216.

Obviously, I'm just posting now to brag a bit, as I'm quite pleased with that. Especially given I took Messi out of my team before the England game out of sheer loyalty to the nation ..and the Falkland Islands.

It does give me a chance to pen my thoughts about the World Cup though. Overall I've really enjoyed it. I think having it in America has been good. The stadiums were fantastic, and seeing so many people that normally don't have an interest in football discussing the game was something I really enjoyed. In fact, I like seeing people come to something with fresh eyes. People immersed in football often carry all these mental clichés that cloud their basic observation. Low block, high press, false nine, game management, and so on. People love the jargon and technicality, and end up thinking in ideas. As oppose to just observing reality.

So I loved seeing Trump (and other American Twitter accounts) say things like, "Messi was well guarded ..then all of a sudden he's standing on the right ..he moved to the right and the other player was just standing there."

Because his head isn't filled with countless hours of analysis and punditry he sees the simple truth and expresses it in simple language.

Of course, those comments were in relation to the England game.

(Messi in acres of space before the second goal)

In fairness there was a small foul before this moment, but still that's a shocking amount of space to have in the final third of the pitch. Everyone's given their opinion on the England game - most people are probably sick of it by now - and normally after a tournament I'd say, "Oh well, maybe next time," but here I do think an inquest is in order, as it's such an easy problem to fix. It really is just about getting the basics right.

It doesn't matter what tactics you're playing, what substitutes you make, whether you're sitting back defensively to protect a lead, or going for a second goal. At the end of the day there always has to be pressure on the ball when it's in the final third. If someone's in a position where they can put a cross in, you have to put pressure on them. You can't just give them five or ten yards to have a free swing. I could put in a decent cross in a world cup semi final if there was no one putting pressure on me.

Likewise with shots around the box. If someone's within twenty-five yards of the goal there must be pressure on the ball. Whatever the tactics. You can't just let someone have this much time and space.

(The Enzo Fernandez goal)

Thirty-five yards out, not so much of a problem. Twenty yards out: criminal.

You could give me a hundred free shots at goal from thirty-five yards out and I probably wouldn't be able to stick it in the top corner once. It takes world class ability to be able to do that even a handful of times out of a hundred. Whereas if you give me a hundred free shots at goal from twenty yards out then I'm smashing a few goals in - and I'm just a non-professional that's played a bit of five a side.

So giving a professional player one or two chances like that is just handing them a gift. You might as well give them a penalty.

This is obvious stuff, but it gets lost amidst the jargon.

It's understandable why the players dropped back so deep and were scared to press. The pressure, the occasion, the fear of losing something so precious - an appearance in a world cup final. I don't blame the players as individuals. You never see these players play like this in the Premier League. I blame two things:

Firstly, the collective psychology. We've had this exact same problem in previous tournaments (though this was perhaps the worst example of it). Too much fear and not enough aggression. As an England player you should feel personally insulted if an opposition player gets an easy cross in or an easy shot at goal. If they do something special or clever to earn that half a yard then fair enough. But you can't just give them a free shot at goal. We gave the Argentinians opportunities, they gave us nothing. We had to earn our chances. Make them earn theirs.

I think that defeat hurt so much because it felt like we let them bully us. Like we just handed them our lunch money.

Secondly, we've forgotten the basics. Again, all the jargon and over-analysis means everyone's overthinking things. In the modern game we have the high press - as we see teams like Man City play - where teams press high up the pitch, even hounding the goalkeeper. I think because of this people tend to have this view that you either press or sit back. Like it's a binary. When in reality, for the most part, football isn't like that. There are times in games when you're on the front foot and you press high, other times when you're on the back foot and sit deep. However, even when you're sitting deep you still need to press the ball when it comes into your own half. Especially when it's in your final third, where a single shot or cross can hurt you.

So even when you sit back (either deliberately as a tactic or just as a consequence of the flow of the game) you still need to press the opposition when they reach your final third.

This is just the basics of football. It's literally doing the basics. The modern football brain can't process the contradiction of not pressing and pressing at the same time though. So we get all these debates about substitutions and formations and game management, when it's all irrelevant if you don't do the basics. There should always be aggressive pressure on the ball in and around the box whatever formation you're playing. Even if you're deliberately 'sitting back' to defend a lead.

Anyway, that's my two cents.

(You can tell I was riled up by that Argentina performance, lol)

Although I was annoyed I think by and large it was a great tournament. The game against Mexico was an unbelievable night. The day after we were all on cloud nine. Also, though I've truly hated Argentina at times over the last week or so you have to admire their fight and will to win. So now the tournament's over I'm happy to shake hands with everyone and get back to club football.

Spain deserved to win ..because they did the basics. They weren't anything special in the final third. I think France and England both have better attacking players. Nevertheless, they defended well, played as a team, bossed the midfield, and efficiently did the business.

I'll end with my favourite image from the tournament. From one of the first games in fact.

(Mike Myers watching Canada)

I've always loved Mike Myers and seeing him look so glum watching Canada (this was when they were 1-0 down in the first game) made me laugh. His ancestry is British and his face looks exactly like an annoyed British football fan. The charm and twinkle of Austin Powers or Wayne from Wayne's World nowhere to be seen. This is what football does to people.

Respect to Mexico, USA and Canada for putting on a very eventful tournament. There's been a lot of controversy and talking points, but world cups are watercooler moments for the whole of humanity. So that's sort of the point really. It doesn't matter if the half time show is good or bad (I actually thought all the little kids singing was cute - so that kind of won me over), what's important is that we're all talking about it. So ten out of ten in that regard.

Well done everyone. Let's do it again in four years' time.

Financial Fair Play aka Communism

This article will probably be a bit less focused. I'd like to have another whinge, but, to be fair, there are multiple sides to the argument. So though I know what side I come down on, I understand that it's not palatable to most people ..for one obvious reason.

That, in my world, football clubs would be allowed to go out of business.

I know. No one wants this. But the alternative isn't great either ..and it looks like the Soviet Union.

A little example..

I'll use a pub. (Perhaps an ironic example, as pubs are going out of business - every day - and the powers-that-be are not so bothered.)

Anyhow, let's say you own a pub. Now let's also say you have a little windfall. Let's say you inherit £30,000 from some distant great-aunt who's died. You then think, "Ah, I'll use this money to invest in my pub. To make it better. Expand the business."

However, then some bureaucrat comes along and says, "Sorry, you can't spend that money on your pub. No, no, no. It wouldn't be fair on the pub down the road."

You then say, "But it's my money. I want to invest it in something worthwhile. In my business - my life's passion. I don't just want to waste it on another holiday or leave it sitting in a bank. Plus, what about that mega-pub in town. They spent £100,000 improving their premises."

"Ah, yes, you see," replies the bureaucrat, "But the mega-pub makes a lot more money than your pub. So they can afford to spend more money."

"But I can afford to spend the money too," you plead, "I have it there in my bank account. How will my pub ever become a mega-pub if I'm not allowed to invest it?"

"No, these are the rules. You can't spend it. It just wouldn't be fair."

This is basically what the financial fair play rules say to football clubs.

Now, in defence of such rules, they did come about to stop clubs from going out of business. Plus, my example is obviously a bit of an oversimplification. We've seen countless examples of clubs going into administration over the years, so the problem is certainly real. Clubs were spending and borrowing too much money, in order to compete with other clubs, and falling into arrears. So, in this case, it's understandable that people were saying "Something Must Be Done!".

So the rules are partly there to make sure clubs don't spend and borrow beyond their means, but they're also there to stop clubs that have the means from spending so much that it's unfair on other clubs.

It sounds nice in theory, however, in my opinion, it's just not how the world works. Firstly, the world is always going to be unfair. You can't regulate that away. The mega-clubs (and mega-pubs in my example) already have a huge advantage that just ends up entrenched by the rules.

Secondly, it's competition and the fear of going out of business that pushes businesses to make good economic decisions. So, in the long run, though it seems fairer, it just makes it more likely that the entire footballing economy will tank. It's like comparing a communist economy, where the state manages everything, to a capitalist economy, where companies are free to take risks and potentially go out of business. Generally the capitalist economies do better overall. It's not nice when a company goes out of business, of course, especially for the employees, but sometimes things go out of business. That's life.

Sure, this is another oversimplification. There are arguments both ways, and most countries tend to have a mix of something in between, but still, football, and the Premier League in particular, was a very successful export long before these rules came about. We need to be careful not to kill the golden goose.

People talk about a football club going out of business like it's a hospital closing down. But they're not hospitals. No one's dying. It's not the NHS. It's a game. So a bit of perspective would be handy.

(I've ended up having the whinge I wanted to have 😁 Again, I'm being a tad unfair, as fans want their teams to be ambitious and to compete, yet they also get upset if that ambition leads to financial issues. So football governing bodies (and politicians that get involved in the debate) are trying to give fans what they want ultimately. A world where a club can never go out of business.)

I think I'm definitely in the minority on this one. The rules just seem insane to me though. As a child I used to sometimes dream of becoming rich and buying a football club. It'd be a bit pointless now. Why would you bother? Personally I think the super-rich owners have been good for football. Abramovich buying Chelsea (..and no, I'm not getting into the wider politics there, lol) turned a two horse Premier League title race into a three horse race. Likewise, the turnaround of Manchester City has been remarkable and memory-filled.

Newcastle could be doing similar things today with their Saudi owners, but, typical Newcastle, they got the money just as the bureaucrats turned up to stop them spending it. It would've been good for the north-east, but apparently it's fairer this way.

(Finally, there's an argument that the fair play rules weren't just brought about to save clubs, but also had the aim of clipping the wings of the Premier League - which was becoming too wealthy and dominant for UEFAs liking. I can imagine there's some truth in this, so it's worth noting, but I spend enough time bashing Europe when it comes to the EU, so I'll try to leave it out of my football whinging.)