Jackson In

Just a quick update.

A pretty straightforward transfer. Jackson in, Joao Pedro out.

No point overcomplicating things.

I'm also just going to play all my Arsenal guys at the back. The Davis fixture away to Hull looks attractive at first glance, but the way I look at it is: Arsenal and Liverpool are two evenly matched teams; Hull and Ipswich are two evenly matched teams. So there ain't much difference in reality, even though Hull feels nicer.

The Brighton players on my bench are a slight headache. As Brighton looked good against Liverpool, in spite of the loss. Surely City will score, but will they keep Brighton out?

It's always good to have decent bench though, so why am I complaining?

It's all good. Steady as she goes.

Seven and Eight: Up and Up

As promised, an update on how my last two gameweeks went.

What the world is waiting for.

GW7 - Bench Boost:

88 points (avg. 59)

GW8:

60 points (avg. 45)

Two good weeks. Two lucky weeks. 21 points from my bench boost was very nice - and quite fortunate, as the fixtures were far from ideal. Then this week goals from Konsa and Gabriel.

I actually had a feeling Gabriel would do well. In the previous two Arsenal games he looked in the mix on corners. I watched the Champions League game against Bayern and it seemed like they were back to the old Declan Rice direct corner routine. Considering my previous post noting the short corners this was a welcome relief. When I saw Konsa had scored I thought, "Oh well, maybe next week, at least they're scoring those sort of goals again." Then later when Gabriel's name did come up on the scoresheet I felt very vindicated ..and jammy. Though his goal was a header from open play.

I'm now up to 436k in rank. So I feel like I'm in the running for a decent rank again.

I also got lucky with the Haaland vice captaincy. I could've very easily went with Palmer over Joao Pedro.

The Chelsea Conundrum.

With Joao Pedro out Chelsea really lacked a spear tip. I talked about the drama in that game last time, so I won't go over it all again. Although I do have to mention Gary Neville once more. (I don't want to pick on him, but he makes it almost unavoidable).

With Joao Pedro out they started Morgan Rogers up front. In commentary Gary kept saying, "I don't understand why they're not starting Welbeck?!" Or words of disbelief to that effect.

However, they didn't start Welbeck because they tried that against Brentford the last time Joao Pedro was out and he barely touched the ball. In fact, that game was similar to this one. There wasn't much in the game, it could've went either way, but Chelsea couldn't score and the other team managed to do so. Then the game ran away from them.

Playing Rogers upfront was just as bad as playing Welbeck in the end, perhaps worse, but either way Chelsea have a problem. No Joao Pedro, no goals. So if he remains out that's a problem. As his absence seems to make Rogers and Palmer worse options too.

Isak and Jackson

And now we have attacking alternatives.

Isak looked very sharp again. He's almost matching Haaland for consistency of returns. It's annoying not owning him, as I had him from the start. I took the gamble on him, but still had to let him go to get Haaland. (Obviously I can't really complain given I got to keep Gabriel, but still..)

Likewise Nicolas Jackson looked good, and it wasn't just the goals. His overall performance was impressive. He looks a lot more mature and serious than he did the last time he was in the Premier League. The fixtures are great as well. The Manzambi/Jackson double up is tempting.

If Joao Pedro is out the switch to Jackson looks straight forward. At least as a temporary move. The bigger question is do I downgrade Palmer too and make it permanent, to make way for Isak?

It is a conundrum.

And it all hinges on Joao Pedro. He makes such a difference to Chelsea, and when he plays you'd be scared not to own him, as with the service from Palmer and Rogers he has genuine double digit potential in any given gameweek.

In fact, this was my thinking behind captaining him ahead of Palmer - there was a logic. Obviously Palmer has penalties, and normally it makes sense to captain the penalty taker. However, I think this was the exception that proves the rule.

Imagine Chelsea had won the game 3-1, and one of those goals was a penalty. Palmer would've got a goal, plus maybe another return. Let's say an assist. However, Joao Pedro (if he'd have played) could've still hauled. He might've scored the other two. Or scored and assisted. Or won the penalty.

Then imagine Chelsea had won the game 3-1 with no penalty. In that game the potential for Joao Pedro is even bigger, but the likelihood of a Palmer haul is considerably less.

So in both scenarios there's the potential for a haul with Joao Pedro.

Of course, Palmer is good enough that he could score a hattrick in any game as well. So in theory anything could happen, but going by what we've seen this season it's tended to be Joao Pedro getting the multiple returns.

Of course, you could say. "What if Chelsea win 1-0 and it's a penalty?"

However, if you're only expecting one goal you shouldn't really be captaining someone from that team.

I had hopes that Chelsea would put a few past Tottenham. If I'd have known Joao Pedro was out I'd have thought differently.

Again, I did get very lucky though. I wasn't far off captaining Palmer. So hopefully my luck continues.

Chelsea vs Spurs: Another Rant About Gary Neville

No, this is not because I've had a bad week in FPL. I've actually been quite lucky, which I'll come to later. I'll also share how my bench boost went last week (where I had even more luck).

First I need to have my rant though.

What happened today serves as yet another illustration of the modern game being ruled to the letter of the law, not the spirit of the game.

For context, there was an incident where Cole Palmer beat his man and would've been heading towards goal, had the opposing player not grabbed the ball with his hand. Palmer, angry, reacted and did that thing that footballers do, where they square up to the other player with their chest.

It's a stupid thing to do, and you shouldn't react like that, but at the same time it's not a punch or a kick or anything serious. It's what we normally call "a bit of handbags." It's a yellow card. Nothing more, nothing less. And that's what the referee gave.

However, in commentary Gary Neville wanted a red. He was more irate than Palmer. He was talking about the incident like it was a drop kick to the head. He wasn't bothered about the deliberate handball that preceded it, that potentially stopped a goal. He even said of Palmer's reaction, "I can't understand why he's done it."

Er, Gary, he was potentially through on goal (albeit from forty odd yards out). He's desperate to score. He wants to win. It's an important game. The other guy has blatantly cheated.

It's called passion.

I then went on Twitter to give my all-important opinion, only to find that most of the other comments where just like Gary's.

"How is that not a red?!!"

Obviously it's understandable from Spurs fans, but it's crazy that the average fan is now more outraged by a bit of handbags than by a deliberate handball that's stopped an exciting chance from developing.

Ten minutes or so later, Gary got his wish. Palmer got a second yellow and went off the pitch. This time it was harder to argue against, as he stood on his opponent with his studs when going for the ball, and that generally is a certain yellow. Assuming there's intent.

Even here though there was zero benefit of the doubt given. Often it's hard to tell if such contact is deliberate. Even now watching it back I'm not totally sure it was. Again, it was a yellow by modern standards, as was his earlier reaction. So I can't fault the referee. It's just that desire to have players sent off that I find so pernicious. Wanting players punished for showing passion. Giving players yellows and potentially reds for minor infringements and accidental collisions.

Towards the very end of the game we got yet another example. Morgan Rogers was given a yellow card for a daft little kick out at a player. It was a yellow and he deserved it. He was frustrated at the end of a game where they'd been beat and he was a bit petulant. Again, Gary Neville wanted a red for it though. Like a nerdy hall monitor.

I've mentioned before that there's lots of actual cheating that goes on in games that doesn't get punished. For example, defenders dropping to the floor when they feel the slightest bit of contact to get a free kick when they're under pressure. Which nine out of ten times they get. It's deliberate diving. They're cynically cheating, but that's fine. Whereas if you genuinely try to win the ball but are a split second late you get a yellow.

It's like passion is punished, but cold cynical acts are fine. Like here where a deliberate handball isn't a big deal - Gary isn't ranting about that - but the reaction is.

It's similar when you see commentators say things like, "That was a good free kick to give away," or, "That was a good yellow," when a player deliberately fouls a player near the halfway line that's heading towards goal. That sort of cynical and deliberate foul is praised by commentators. But if you show a bit of passion and accidentally nick someone's toe when trying to genuinely win the ball back then you're deemed a violent criminal.

It really does feel like football is being ran by a HR department.

Anyway, I've decided I'm not going to tell you how my bench boost went and how lucky I've been, as I've typed too much and I have food in the oven. I'll leave that 'til the next post.

I'm Bench Boosting

It's not the most inspiring bench boost ..but beggars can't be choosers.

Leif Davis away to Man City in particular is worrisome. Conceivably that could be negative points territory. I feel I have to go now though. The next few weeks' fixtures aren't ideal, and once we get into the long grass I'll no doubt have other fires to put out.

My plan was to bench boost last week, when Davis had Fulham at home. However, he only got one point in that fixture too. So I could wait for another optimal fixture and still blank anyway. At the end of the day it's the £4.0m slot. Let's be realistic, anything higher than zero will be a bonus. Plus, who knows, in football there's always the chance of a little magic.

As for my overall team things feel much more comfortable now I have Haaland. I went for Gross as well. That one feels a bit boring, but it's been offset by Manzambi. The added spice that makes the bench boost a more hopeful lottery.

Gabriel

I still have Gabriel. It should feel like a luxury, but it doesn't. I was thinking about him vs Tarkowski earlier. Last week Tarkowski got 17 defcon, lol. It's almost like his floor is three points. Those Arsenal short corners really make a difference too. I wish I'd considered that at the start of the season. They started doing it at the back end of last season, so there's no excuse really. Saying that, it is still early in the season, and Arsenal remain the premium defensive outfit.

So maybe a Gabriel haul is just around the corner.

It doesn't feel like that though.

Either way, now the bench boost is out of the way I'll be able to focus cash on the first eleven. So even if he doesn't start firing he'll provide the funds to bring in a bigger hitter elsewhere. 

If You Can't Be Good, Be Lucky

Jam.

Big Jam.

I must apologise to every other player in the game.

75 points (avg. 58)

De Cuyper came off my bench with his fifteen points. Obviously it was totally unexpected too, as we all just assumed Szoboszlai would play. So very lucky. It's comfortably the best thing he's done for me since I brought him in.

And now he's probably going.

His injury changes my transfer dynamics yet again. Meaning Gabriel gets a stay of execution.

My plan now is to bring in Haaland, Elliot Anderson and either Gross or Manzambi.

Manzambi seems like a lovely differential, but do I want to go against Gross? Of course, I could get both and forgo Anderson. The Ipswich fixture is hard to ignore though.

I'll decide on Friday.

My overall rank is 1.7m (approx.)

Not ideal, let's hope we're at least moving in the right direction now.

A Perfect Illustration

Yesterday's Liverpool vs Man City game almost perfectly illustrated the point I've been making about how overregulation is killing the game. It was almost funny.

I've written about this before here: https://cyprilocks.substack.com/p/the-handball-of-the-british-empire

For the last few weeks we've had this constant talk about unfairness and cheating.

I've been pointing out,

"Look, you can't eliminate external unfair circumstances. If Manchester United play Grimsby in the FA Cup that's always going to be unfair if you're judging by club size and resources. It's just the way it is ..but so what? Why is this bad? As long as it's eleven vs eleven on the pitch and the referee treats them all equally, what's the problem?"

No amount of regulation can make two clubs economically equal, but even if it could, why would you want to do this? It'd be horrible and boring.

I'm a Middlesbrough fan. If we play Arsenal in the FA Cup this season, or get promotion to the Premier League and play these massive teams next year, it'll be fun. I'll be very happy about that. It's literally what I'm hoping for when I turn up every game.

I'm not thinking, "Oh no, that'd be awful. We should be playing Watford every week. That way it'd be fair and even."

Yes, we'll probably get hammered, but even one season in the top flight would be exciting. I'd love to see Haaland at the Riverside. Plus, you never know, we could do alright. We could stay up. We could get a few results against bigger teams ..and it'd be all the more sweeter as we'd be the underdog.

This is the beauty with football. This is why it is fair.

If Man City play Accrington Stanley in the FA Cup it doesn't matter how many millions they've spent, if they don't show some grit and passion, there's a chance, albeit small, that they could get embarrassed. As, at the end of the day, for all the money and pizzazz, it's eleven men against eleven with a football and a referee's whistle.

It's the great leveller.

And in England we uphold this to a tee. Not only do we have a fine tradition of this sporting fairness, but it remains today. There's no match-fixing, no bribery. The very thought of such a thing is almost unthinkable in English football. The game is cleaner than a referee's whistle. This is why it's such a slander on English football when people scream "It's corrupt!"

When it really isn't. It's just not.

The Sending Off

Anyway, this brings me back to the actual game. Yesterday it wasn't eleven vs eleven. It was eleven vs ten. As Liverpool's Ryan Gravenberch was sent off for two very soft yellow cards.

So we had this ridiculous spectacle where people were outraged over Manchester City's past spending, yet the actual unfairness was right there before everyone's eyes on the pitch.

Now, you could criticise the referee, but in truth it's not really the referee's fault. The referee is trying to ref the game fairly to the best of his ability. (As above, our referees are honest. Some might be idiots, but they're honest, and I won't hear anyone say otherwise.)

The wider reason why Gravenberch was sent off was because of the modern rules.

As with the financial regulations, in the quest to make the game fairer and eradicate fouls and cheating, they've made the game more unfair.

In today's game all fouls are severely punished, regardless of intent. In the past a yellow or red card was for something serious or deliberate. Today they get given for technical breaches. A player makes an honest attempt to win the ball back for his team and because he fails he gets a yellow card.

So, Gravenberch was sent off yesterday not because he tried to cheat, but because he was competitive. (The very thing we supposedly want the game to be.) He stuck his foot out to try to win the ball back for his team, and because his opponent was a fraction quicker he's sent off the pitch.

This is unfair.

(Again, imagine if Accrington Stanley do play Man City at some point. Would it be fair if they go down to ten men for half the game because one of their players accidentally trips the much faster Haaland?

It's the underdog's right to compete and make things difficult that levels the game.)

After the red card Gary Neville said in commentary that Gravenberch knew he was on a yellow, so should've been more careful, which shows how ridiculous it all is. Yes, if you're on a yellow card you obviously shouldn't do something stupid like drag someone's shirt or go flying into a crazy slide tackle, but the idea that you should go the entire game without trying to win the ball back is just insane.

Yeah, the ball's there to be won, you could win it, but no, better just let the opponent have it.

Don't do your job and actually try to compete in a football match, whatever you do.

Of course, if Gravenberch didn't show passion and try to win the ball back, Gary Neville and all the other pundits would be criticising him for that too. So all these talking heads don't really know what they want. It was a competitive game up until the sending off, but they're more annoyed that fifteen years ago Man City signed Aguero and a bunch of other superstars.

They're all very confused, and they're confused because they're lost in a maze of rules and regulations. Anyone with an ounce of common sense can see it's the rules themselves that are the problem.

Failure.

Well, GW6 and the results are in: my plan to go against Haaland has failed.

(Ignore the fifteen points from De Cuyper on my bench ..I'm trying to. Obviously it was a mistake not to play him. Though I don't regret it, as I genuinely thought Davis had the better fixture. I thought Sunderland away would be a difficult tie. This is one of the problems with relying too much on the eye test. Sunderland impressed me a lot against Arsenal, and that one game probably weighed more heavily on my judgement than it should've done. So it was a mistake, but it was my own call. Ipswich won and Sunderland weren't exactly a walkover. Meaning it wasn't that bad of a mistake. Plus, I am an eye test guy, and that's how I play. So I can live with it.)

What I can't live with is the wider failure.

Having Fernandes, Isak and Gabriel instead of Haaland just hasn't paid off.

Isak: Unlucky, as it's an injury. Though, saying that, he had injury problems last season so it's not hugely surprising.

Gabriel: So far he just hasn't offered any of the extras that he offered last season to justify the price.

Fernandes: Manchester United look terrible.

I caught the second half of yesterday's game. They looked like relegation contenders. In fact, I missed the first half as I was on my way home from the Riverside. It was my club's - Middlesbrough's - 150 year anniversary. Our history isn't quite as illustrious as United's, but the football was certainly better. I wouldn't trade a single United player for Will Lankshear.

Anyway, back to my team..

It'll be a relief to finally bring Haaland in. I was tempted to do it last night, but with today's (Sunday's) games to go, plus midweek fixtures, I need to wait. I'm also not sure whether to use two transfers or all three. If I make three I'll be able to ditch Gabriel to use the cash to get a more expensive midfielder. However, if I do that I'll have a benching headache.

I could bench boost, the problem is Davis would be playing Man City. So I haven't quite found the right solution yet. It might be wiser to get a cheap mid and save the transfer.

We'll see where we are.

Bench Boosting ..without the chip

Don't worry, this isn't about Man City.

It's just regular ol' fpl content.

Here's my team..

I was planning to bench boost in GW6, but instead my bench is being boosted into the first team. With Davis and Szoboszlai coming in for the flagged Isak and Konsa.

Isak is definitely out. Konsa could possibly start, but as his upside isn't huge it's a nice opportunity to play Davis.

Isak being out makes next week's decision a little easier. I was toying with keeping Isak and going with him, Haaland and Joao Pedro up front. Now it looks like it'll be a straight swap for Haaland, with just Fernandes dropping down to free up the cash. Though with three free transfers I could drop Gabriel and Palmer instead.

I have no idea when the bench boost will be used.

Manchester City: Smashing A Beautiful Blue Sportscar

Life is unfair, but if there's some guy who's better looking than me (unfair though that may be), I can't go to the government and say, "Please, can you ban this man from spending money on getting new clothes and a haircut? It's not fair! How can I compete with him when getting a job or a girlfriend?!"

You can't restrict everyone else's freedom to make things "fair", and even if you could it would never be fair anyway. As every arbitrary restriction would be an unfairness in of itself.

In fact, part of competition lies in the desire to overcome unfairness. The other guy may be better looking than me, but if I work harder, or smarter, or show some creativity, perhaps I'll overcome that. Of course, you could argue that it's unfair that I'm smarter and more creative than the good-looking guy. That maybe the government should restrict or limit my use of that in the interests of fairness. Life is complex though, and who decides these things? What god gets to weigh them up and say, "Yes, I'll decide what's fair."

It's unfair that Manchester United has a history of success and your side doesn't. It's unfair that Arsenal sit at the heart of a capital city with a huge catchment area, whereas your club sits in a small, unknown town. There are so many differences such as these that are accidents of chance and history. And no two clubs, just as no two people, will ever be exactly level in all things.

This is life.

Now what am I getting at here? Of course, it's the recent Manchester City furore.

The two questions people are asking are:

Did City break the rules?

What should their punishment be?

However, I would argue that the more important question is:

Should we have these rules in the first place?

Rules that effectively limit how much owners can invest in their football clubs.

As above, where I was complaining about the good-looking guy, the argument is, "It's not fair that other clubs can spend more money! They should be banned from doing it!"

Now firstly, it's bad in general wanting to ban things, and wanting to stop other clubs from investing money and effort into being the best they can be. Essentially stopping the pursuit of excellence. Just as it would be pretty spiteful for me to want to ban another man from getting an expensive haircut and being the best he can be.

Secondly, the way the rules work aren't fair anyway. As clubs are allowed to spend in proportion to the revenue they generate. Meaning bigger clubs are allowed to spend and invest more money than smaller clubs. So it entrenches unfairness. It actively stops investors coming into the game and shaking things up.

Imagine you run a corner shop. You inherit some money and want to invest it in your shop to make it more successful. But then the authorities come along and say, "No, you can't invest that money, it wouldn't be fair on the other corner shops!" So you can't improve your business. Meanwhile Sainsbury's and Tesco are investing millions. When you raise that point though the reply comes back, "Ah, but they're much bigger, they can afford to invest that sort of money."

Of course, you can afford to invest it too. The money is sat in your bank. But you're not allowed to, as it wouldn't be "fair."

If corner shops and other businesses had to be ran like this it would just be silly, but that's how football is run now.

And it wasn't even originally about fairness

Everyone talks about "fairness" now, however the rules came in to stop clubs from going out of business. That was the aim. It wasn't to impose fairness, which, as we've noted, is an impossible task.

The argument was that clubs were borrowing too much money and taking too many risks in order to compete with other clubs. Resulting in some clubs going into administration. So that's what the rules were (understandably) aiming to stop.

Even here though it's foolish to think you can have a system where the threat of going out of business is removed. It's economically illiterate.

If I spend money I don't have to buy a sportscar, to compete with the good-looking rich guy who's just bought a sportscar, then I'm going to go bankrupt ..and it would be my own fault. You can't just ban everyone from buying a sportscar because of idiots like me.

Yes, it might be unfair that some people don't have a sportscar, but banning just creates a world where no one has a sportscar and no one ever can have one.

Anyway, this is what these rules are doing to the Premier League. In the pursuit of rosy-eyed fairness they're going to kill the golden goose.

They're going to smash a beautiful blue sportscar, one of their most cherished possessions, because some silly rules that were brought into being barely ten years ago say they have to.

I've made my bed, I'm going to have to lie in it.

..also, the bench boost is cancelled.

Joao Pedro is seemingly out. That puts me a man down and rules out a bench boost. It's quite fortunate in a sense, as it means I can just play Szoboszlai - a fairly sturdy replacement. It was Szoboszlai sitting on my bench that leaned me into wanting to use it in the first place. So this is a potential net positive, as the other fixtures my bench had weren't ideal. It's also saved me a transfer.

As for the bed I'll have to lie in that's not looking so rosy. Yesterday I could've used two transfers (meaning a minus four) to bring in Haaland. I could've upgraded Joao Pedro and downgraded Fernandes to a £4.4m midfielder. Alas, that's no longer possible, as Haaland increased in price last night.

I wouldn't have made that move anyway, though I did briefly consider it. In fact, I knew Haaland was rising (I've been using the price change feature a lot in the last few weeks). It does make Haaland even more expensive when I do get him though 😬

I think I've criticised Man Utd enough this week, but they really do seem to be in crisis mode. So captaining a Utd player, away from home, when everyone else has Haaland, feels ominous. Again though, I've made my bed, so I just have to roll with it. Hopefully Sunderland can do me a favour.

Other than the captaincy I quite like my team. The goalkeeper isn't ideal, and the Arsenal fixture isn't the best. However, saying that, I really don't think having a triple-up on Arsenal is that risky. Everyone has Calafiori, and many have Konsa now too. So if Arsenal lose the clean sheet it's just Gabriel versus whichever third defender other people have. Even with a concession Gabriel could get defcon or an attacking return. So losing the clean sheet isn't as damaging as it would appear on first viewing. It's not like having a triple-up when everyone else has no one from that team, or just one.

Bournemouth played away in Europe last night, so the Liverpool fixture isn't awful. Barnes and Barry are somewhat hopeful picks - I'm not expecting much, but the fixtures are nice. So there are reasons to be optimistic. Even if Utd lose again they could lose 4-3 and Fernandes could get a haul. Anything could happen.

And tonight's Chelsea game just feels like a bonus. Tough fixture for Palmer and Rogers, but I certainly don't mind owning either.

A.I.M. - Artificial Intent Metric

That Manchester United vs Manchester City game really got me thinking about intent. And how important it is.

I don't want to pick on Marcus Rashford - I could use other United players - but his lack of intent on Sunday in comparison to Bruno Fernandes was quite striking, as he did get on the ball in good positions. Yet never looked like doing anything.

An Example

Let's say two players put speculative crosses into the box from similar positions. At similar points in a play's development. Let's say from the lefthand side of the eighteen yard box, and both crosses go into the same dangerous area of the pitch.

(Player A and Player B

putting near identical crosses into the box)

Now statistically these both go down the same. AI analysis, or just general data analysis, scores them both the same. Two crosses into a dangerous area.

However, in reality, though they're both just percentage balls into the box, the intent on the ball matters greatly.

We know this from watching games - the eye test - and we also know it from personal experience of playing football.

If I'm just having a kick-about and I put a ball into the box - la di da - like it doesn't matter. Then that's completely different to a game where it's important.

"We're 1-0 down, we desperately need a goal. The clock's ticking. This needs to count."

The difference is both subtle and huge. Thanks to that purposeful intent there may be a little bit of extra speed and aggression on the ball, making it harder for the keeper to judge. The slight difference in the angle of the cross as a consequence may make it favour the attackers slightly more than the defenders.

Again, we can witness this difference in intent (intensity) when we watch games. I could clearly see the difference between Fernandes and Rashford (and the other United players). When Fernandes played a cross or forward pass you felt something might happen. Whereas Rashford's shots and crosses were just hopeful. There was no real belief or urgency. Of course, this is all subjective too. Another person might watch the same game and judge things differently. They might think it was Rashford that had intent on the ball and that Fernandes lacked it. Or that Fernandes was just as lacking as Rashford.

This is why it's hard for data alone to gauge these things. We're trying to read subtleties, including things like body language. You could have deeper data. You could for example take into account the speed and angle of the cross. But even then it's not that simple. A pass or cross might need to be slower not faster, and the intent of the player helps them execute it accurately, or with the perfect timing.

So, anyway, I'm thinking that maybe I should use the eye test to ascribe intent ratings to players (and the teams they play for - as obviously the players they're playing with affect the potential as well).

For example, Haaland would be a 9 or 10. In fact, I've probably undercounted for this so far this season. I've been looking at other players with similar or close xG, such as Isak. Forgetting the fact that Haaland is a monster, with superhuman levels of intent and will to score.

So Haaland is a 10, and he's surrounded by players who have (to varying degrees) a similar level of intent. Therefore he's a 10 in a City side I'd score around 8.

Whereas Bruno is a 9 or 10. Let's say a 9. But in a team that's much lower. Let's give a generous 6.

This is actually why I brought Szoboszlai in. On the eye test he looked full of intent. Like he wanted to make an impact on the game, not just make up the numbers. Driving through midfield with the ball. Aggressive shots at goal - nearly all on target. Maybe Liverpool, like United, aren't quite top tier either though. He hasn't had the points so far, so we'll see how it plays out. Had I not watched Liverpool play Ipswich I wouldn't have him in my team. Will I benefit from this in the long term, or would I have been better off not seeing the game?

It's interesting. I'm definitely someone who values the eye test. So maybe this is a way to quantify my impressions a little better.

The Sunday Fixtures

Another post in quick succession. (I'm really enjoying my bread and circuses at the moment.)

77 points

This is how my gameweek finished, sans the final fixture. Currently I'm on a green arrow, but I'm not fully confident it can go down as a good week points-wise. It's been a high scoring week. I've seen a few people pass the 100 mark. So seventy-seven, though impressive in most gameweeks, could be hovering above the average when it's all tallied up.

I'm fairly happy though.

The Sunday Fixtures in Review

I have to start in reverse with that Utd/City game. Man Utd were awful. I felt sorry for Bruno Fernandes at times. He didn't play badly, but he was the only one you could say that about. The rest of the side were frighteningly average. We've known this for some time, but seeing them come undone against a 10-man City, at Old Trafford, made it stark.

The defenders made so many mistakes. Even just simple passes seemed a struggle. Dalot and Maguire in particular. And up top it was the same. They just looked ineffective. Rashford got in good positions but didn't know what to do with it. He's kind of like a talented headless chicken. Cunha, who has great feet to be fair, looked undeadly - if that's a word.

Whereas with the City attackers there's this feeling that they're likely to score when they get a chance, with United it's always hopeful shots.

We've skied it over the bar, we've hit the side netting. Oh well, maybe next time.

Like actually scoring doesn't matter that much. If you've had a few attempts that's what counts.

I'm being very harsh here, but it's almost like I watched the game through Fernandes' eyes being a Fernandes owner, and I felt for him. You look at all the good Premier League defenders at clubs like Bournemouth, Leeds, Sunderland, Brighton and so on. Likewise the effective attacking players at such clubs - Gross, Gibbs-White, Dewsbury-Hall, Tavernier. The list goes on, we all own them. And you wonder why a club like Manchester United has worse players. Why a player like Bruno Fernandes has to make the most of such an average situation year after year.

The whole team looked lost after Haaland scored. It was as if it was City that had eleven players on the pitch. (It was frustrating to watch - perhaps why I'm taking out my frustration here.)

Needless to say it answered the question I had. Fernandes or Haaland? It's definitely Haaland, through no fault of Fernandes.

I'll keep Fernandes (and Isak) for the next two weeks though. GW7 will be the switch over. So who knows what we'll see next week. I'll probably even captain Fernandes. (It'll be with a sense of defeat though 😔)

Coventry 0 - 5 Brighton

This fixture was easier to watch, as I got very lucky. The two clean sheets were very fortunate, as Coventry had chances. Though the massive haul from Gross left a slight bitter aftertaste.

This was another game where one side went down to ten men (Coventry). In some ways they were unlucky. Not only did they suffer the sending off, but they also conceded two quite brilliant goals. The fourth from Dunk was a wonder strike, and the first from Kostoulas was incredibly well manoeuvred. They also conceded a penalty, that Gross annoyingly dispatched. 

Still, in spite of the bad luck, they looked like a Championship side. It was like watching a cup game between teams from different tiers. The effort was equal, but the quality wasn't. Again, Coventry created chances, but they weren't clinical. Whereas Brighton had that touch of class in the final third.

It's difficult to say how much of the score was Brighton's brilliance and how much was Coventry's lack thereof. As I noted in my previous post, Brighton now face Arsenal next, so it's not ideal for my bench boost. Should I just play Verbruggen and De Cuyper and hope for the best? They have just scored five, and they do at least have home advantage. Then again, Arsenal will surely score at least one, and they don't concede many. So both attacking and defensive returns are quite unlikely.

At the moment I'm favouring just hitting the bench boost regardless. Why not? It'll be fun. You never know what might happen. I could transfer one of the two out, but as things stand I'd rather roll the transfer.

All in all I feel things are finally starting to take shape.

Bench Boost GW5 ??

I think I might bring my bench boost forward to GW5. Sunderland looked superb against Arsenal last night and it made having De Cuyper and Verbruggen facing them at the Stadium of Light look a lot less attractive. Also, Fulham kept a clean sheet against Liverpool, making the Leif Davis fixture look a bit less appetising. He scored 14 points yesterday, so I've probably missed the haul either way. Nevertheless, Everton doesn't seem that much worse as a fixture now.

(Plus, I'm trigger-happy, I really want to use the bench boost. I can't resist 😈)

I also have Szoboszlai sat on my bench going into GW5, so that's pushing me in the same direction.

The problem is, Brighton face Arsenal, which isn't appealing either. Consequently I might use my one free transfer to take out De Cuyper or Verbruggen. I could do De Cuyper to Muharemovic (home to Palace), or Verbruggen to Kinsky (home to Villa).

It all makes these Sunday fixtures doubly worth watching. (Did I mention I'm typing this on Sunday morning - in the middle of GW4?)

Coventry vs Brighton gives me a good opportunity to assess the two Brighton assets - and Brighton in general.

Then it's United vs City. Aka Bruno vs Haaland. I'm becoming a bit of a stuck record constantly restating how going against Haaland could damage me. As I sit here mid-gameweek it's all too apparent though.

I'm pleased with my gameweek so far, but once again this is ultimately what will decide things. I need Fernandes to compete with Haaland.

It seems like the average could be high this week ..players like Saka, Raya and Gibbs-White have already notched points for other people. Matching my Gabriel differential. On top of that a lot of people will have captained Joao Pedro or triple-captained Palmer, which is another seven or five points I've missed out on. So I'd happily take any sort of green arrow.

Whatever the points outcome I'm happy with the wildcard. I feel like three Chelsea attackers and three Arsenal defenders is a lock for me now. After that it's just the other five spots. Watching the Liverpool highlights didn't dissuade me from owning their players too much. Though, yes, the question mark needs to remain hanging over Isak's head.

The core decision is essentially Isak + Fernandes vs Haaland + Cheaper Mid.

In a way I think Fernandes is what makes the decision. As if he consistently gets returns like he did last season then he allows the luxury of Isak. Whereas if he's miles behind Haaland I'll have to get Haaland regardless of Isak. (Unless Isak suddenly becomes massively captainable, which at the moment he clearly isn't.)

So United vs City is an interesting fixture that puts this entire question into sharp focus. The ultimate real time eye test.

Wildcard Ready ..and Jungle Instincts

Okay, my wildcard is all set.

A classic 4-4-2 formation.

Konsa, a little boringly, starts ahead of Barry and Barnes. Palmer has snatched the armband.

I'm really liking this team and everything feels right ..which is usually the precursor to tragedy.

Let's not be negative though.

Team Value

One unintended consequence of this wildcard is that I've picked up a lot of team value. I say unintended as it's something I never really care too much about. When you have a slightly differential style it's hard to always be on the right side of the price changes.

This time I seem to be with the current though. I hit the wildcard on Saturday night and since then I've caught quite a few increases. The only players in slight danger of dropping are Fernandes and Gabriel. So that could take the sheen off things. Not that it really matters. Again, it's not really how I play the game. However, saying that, I have been talking about tempo this season, and I can't help but be slightly enamoured with the thought that this wildcard might have set things up nicely. Getting the right players at the right price. We can but dream.

Finally, I always talk about instinct too. Sometimes I feel unsure. My instinct might lean slightly in one direction, but my thought processes lead somewhere else. When I hit the wildcard though I just had a very strong overall sense that it was the right time to do it.

It's really interesting to me how these things work. I'm always so fascinated by this interplay between mental analysis and gut feeling. Sometimes things just come together. Normally it's the head versus the heart, but sometimes it's the head with the heart. Or at least the head happy to let the heart take the driving seat.

I love these moments of in-the-moment-ness.

Of course, it doesn't just apply to fpl, but all aspects of life. Everywhere a course of action needs to be decided. Often there's so much inner-conflict - waiting, inaction, weighing things up, wondering. Then sometimes - whoosh - you just know. You don't think, you do.

Looking back to last Saturday it's clear why I had that vibe.

- I wanted both Rogers and Palmer, but only had one free transfer.

- I'd watched Liverpool on the Friday and Szoboszlai had really impressed on the eye test.

- The opportunity was there to get Konsa at £4.4m.

- I'd brought Sangaré in, but it wasn't a move I was happy with. (The whole point of going without Haaland was to have expensive attacking midfielders. So it wasn't right for me. I wasn't feeling it.)

- I had the opportunity to get De Cuyper before yet more price rises.

- Semenyo was going to drop in price that night.

So there was a list of reasons. All of which I was aware of to some degree. Nevertheless, when I hit the wildcard it wasn't a checklist decision. It was an in the moment decision. Had it been a considered decision I'd have waited until Sunday morning. Or more likely Monday, after all the gameweek fixtures had finished. But it was a "Now's the right time to do this" feeling.

It's fascinating how the body/mind processes information like this. Giving a feeling of what's right, as opposed to a chain-of-logic-derived mental 'answer'. It makes sense too. If you were out in the wild getting chased by a tiger you wouldn't have time to write a checklist and consider every option.

This isn't to say the checklists are bad. Spending time doing your homework - learning the jungle terrain - is useful. But there are moments when you have to run through the jungle, and in those moments you almost have to flow in the current of all those bits of knowledge simultaneously. You can't focus on the individual drops of water or pebbles on the riverbed, you have to feel the whole river. (We've moved from jungle to river now, I think it might be time to wrap this up, lol.)

Obviously, this all sounds a bit pretentious considering I'm just talking about hitting the wildcard in fpl. Again though, it's not just fpl. Can I apply some of these lessons to the real world? The actual jungle. Often in life I overthink things and don't trust my instinct. If I can be bold trying to climb the league in a fantasy football game why can't I exercise that same boldness in the more important areas of my life? Then again, you don't want to be too rash and emotional - as some people are. Underthinking can be a problem too. So synthesising thought and instinct is the aim and ideal I guess.

Hopefully I've managed to do it effectively in fpl at least. Sitting here nearly a full week after making the wildcard decision I'm feeling really pleased I did it. It's gained me a fair bit of team value, and had I waited until later I might not have been able to get the team I wanted. So, though I don't normally care about team value, my instinct helped me avoid the pitfall of it.

"Semenyo is going to drop in price. The tiger is coming. You better start running!"

Let's see if it gets me any points ..or if I just end up getting eaten by the Haaland tiger 🐯

[For the record my current team value is £101.1m. I'm not sure how that measures up to the average engaged manager, but for me it's unprecedented to have a team value that high after three gameweeks!]

Super Sixth Sense

I had a moment of realisation last night. Actually, you could even go as far as saying a moment of cognitive dissonance. Either way, it was a moment where I was confronted with the consequences of my own biased thinking ..and it came via the Super 6.

Normally I don't put any thought whatsoever into the Sky Sports Super 6. It's pure instinct. I click to see how I've done in the previous week, then click to enter my predictions for the upcoming round of games. Rarely do I spend more than five seconds on a particular result. In fact, sometimes if I'm in a rush I'll just put 2-0 to the team I think is most likely to win in every bracket. I spend more time looking at the mini league table than I do the actual scores.

Anyway, last night Man City won in the Champions League, 2-0. Naturally both goals from Haaland. I checked to see what I'd put. I'd went 2-1 to Porto.

"Wow, I really do have an anti-City bias," I thought.

And clearly I do. My thinking at the start of the season wasn't that illogical. Pep had gone. With the departure of Rodri and Bernardo Silva the midfield was looking a bit light. Haaland was very expensive. There were some reasons to go against the herd. However, I think in hindsight I took it too far in the other direction.

Now we're sitting here with City three for three in the Premier League. A solid win in the Champions League. Enzo Fernandez adding a bit of pep to the midfield (if you pardon the pun). And Haaland doing the business as usual.

Meanwhile I'm sitting with a rank of 2.4m.

So I think I need to admit that my strategy has failed, and I need to stop trying to cope it away. Yes, I still have the bench boost. Yes, I still have the triple captain. But realistically that's about 20 points combined. It's not that much, and I need to claw back a bit more than that.

I need to start trying to get Haaland in my side.

Nevertheless ..here's my current wildcard team.

The great man remains absent.

C'mon, he is expensive.

I haven't completely abandoned my plan. It's more that I'm trying to shake off the psychological bias. Over the next few games at least I still feel it makes sense to spread the funds. Especially as I can now see the bench boost on the horizon. (I'm thinking GW6.)

I like this as it gives me a few more weeks to assess the value of Gabriel. Likewise we get a few more weeks to judge Fernandes, Isak and the Chelsea assets. Which of these expensive players do I really want long term? I'm still not sure.

I also get a nice bench boost. On current GW6 plans it'll be Rushworth, Barry, De Cuyper and Leif Davis (who faces the shaky-looking Fulham). That week Isak and Szoboszlai face Man City. So you could argue they're not optimal. Perhaps even bench-able. However, at the moment I really don't mind that fixture. It's at home and I don't think Man City are impervious defensively (hopefully that's not my continuing anti-City bias). Personally I wouldn't bench those players, but even if I did I'd happily bench boost them anyway.

The trickiest decision has been choosing the two 4.5m keepers. None of them fill me with much hope. Verbruggen seems the obvious one, especially with this week's fixture. After that it's a coin toss. Ideally I'd prefer Petrovic, but the games don't rotate well. Plus he'd have Chelsea for the bench boost. So I've went Rushworth. I still feel it's too early to sufficiently judge the promoted clubs, so I'm taking a punt on Coventry having the potential to defy their early results. After all, they have faced City and Arsenal in the first three. The only downside is that he'll face Newcastle, and consequently Harvey Barnes, when I bench boost. You can't have it all ways though.

We'll see where things are in GW6.

GW7

My hope is to now just roll transfers until GW7. Inevitably things won't work out that simply, but if they do it'll be a huge bonus. As then I can potentially navigate to Haaland post-bench boost for his game against Ipswich. The other options are to free hit that week, or to just go against Haaland again. All options are on the table (my mental biases permitting), and by that time we'll have another three weeks of games to get a better picture.

The remaining decision this week is captaincy. Which I'm really not sure about. I defaulted to Joao Pedro instinctively. However, Palmer has penalties and more routes to points. Then again, Isak faces Fulham. It's a tough one.

Of course, you wouldn't be surprised if Haaland outscores them all. The one silver lining is that he played 90 mins in City's win last night, whereas Semenyo came off after 60. So, though he'll no doubt start, what with it being a derby, there's the realistic possibility that he comes off early. Especially if City already have the game in the bag.

Plus, with so many moving to Chelsea assets the danger isn't quite as high. Still, just not owning him could prove to be my undoing once again 😶

Going Against Haaland: The Result

It didn't go well, but it didn't go that badly either.

41 points :/

The one thing that annoys me is that I took out Tzolis for Sangaré. That cost me five points and a free transfer. It annoys me as it's one of those decisions where I went against my natural instinct and buckled under the fear. I felt that he would start, but I played it safe and deferred to other people.

Avoiding Haaland and captaining Cherki obviously didn't work out either (especially as the sacrificed Mbeumo scored). However, I don't have any regrets about that, as it was what I wanted to do. It was definitely my own decision, and it wasn't too far off coming good. Isak delivered. Van Dijk grabbed a clean sheet. I just needed a bit more from the others.

It was lucky that Haaland didn't get more. Then again, Cherki hit the post as well. Foden not starting was also a touch unlucky. I suspected Coventry wouldn't be as bad as people thought, and that proved true. So, though my gamble didn't pay off, it wasn't quite as stupid as it looked, and though I've missed out on points my ego remains somewhat intact.

Wildcard ACTIVE.

I've now hit the wildcard. It just felt like the right time to do it. My team remains Haaland-less. I think the main thing that pushed me in this direction was watching the Liverpool performance. Szoboszlai owners were very unfortunate to come away with nothing. He had multiple shots at goal. Almost had a penalty, and wasn't too far off defcon either. In contrast, Liverpool defensively still didn't look rock solid, and I feared for the Van Dijk clean sheet. So switching those two felt desirable.

Naturally I'm now planning for bench boost too. GW6 looks appealing.

I'll no doubt tinker quite a bit between now and the deadline.

Update: Two Transfers

I've made two transfers before the deadline instead of my planned one. I've lost my nerve on Tzolis. I was expecting him to start, but so many others - including people better at predicting line-ups than me - are leaning towards Eze. So, with a spare transfer sitting there, it seems sensible to move to a safer option.

I've gone with Sangaré, the template pick. On the one hand it narrows the difference between me and everyone else, and stops me missing out on a value player. On the other it now means I'll only have one free transfer next week. Meaning only one extra Chelsea player.

I could do with Liverpool doing well later on today. If I'm sitting with two blanks before we even get to Saturday it might be a long weekend. Though, saying that, Bruno could save me again with another super Sunday.

Questions, questions, questions..

I'm posting a fair bit this season. Very engaged! Hopefully it continues. I didn't actually share my GW2 score in that last post, so I'll do that here. Then I'll list some of the remaining questions I have. Things I feel still haven't been resolved in these first two weeks.

GW2: 110 points (avg. 81)

My GW3 team will look identical, except Mbeumo will become Cherki (team news permitting). Cherki will also be captain.

So, my questions..

Gabriel.

This is a tricky one, as clean sheets look good; defcon looks good, but the attacking threat feels a little diminished. Mainly because Arsenal have continued the trend of taking short corners. So, with the hefty price tag, there's definitely a decision to be made.

If Konsa usurps Mosquera, and the consensus seems to be that he will, then that's a huge saving if you're just looking for that Arsenal clean sheet potential. Gabriel needs much more to justify the price jump.

Then again, does he? Maybe you just get both and let the price tags average out. It's very nice owning Gabriel. It feels like you have a huge advantage over people who don't own him. If a few goals do come as well, then it's a massive differential. So I really don't want to lose him ..but, that extra money would help to get to Haaland.

Van Dijk.

This one's similar. Defcon looks decent. Clean sheets not so much. Goal threat always good.

It's highly unlikely I'll be taking Califiori out any time soon. So at the moment Van Dijk is the one I'd be most eager to downgrade to Konsa. That triple-up would lock me out of getting Saka though. Plus, if Liverpool do improve, and Van Dijk has that big return potential, it's a bit more exciting than just hoping for an Arsenal clean sheet. Perhaps Konsa will offer more in this Arsenal side? Who knows.

Luckily the next two Liverpool fixtures are nice. So I can wait a few more weeks before making plans.

Tzolis.

This one always had the feel of one of those early season picks. Where a new player arrives. Everyone gets excited. Then it doesn't quite happen. Saying that though, he did look great in the Community Shield and Coventry games, and he only came off at half time as he'd picked up a yellow.

I actually really like the fixture this week. Chelsea don't look great defensively. I watched the second half of the Arsenal match on Monday. In commentary Gary Neville said that Eze looked good (after coming on for Tzolis) and might have played his way into the team. However, I wasn't too impressed. I think he can be frustrating and looked a bit hit and miss. So I'm hoping and somewhat expecting that Tzolis starts. Giving me at least one more week to weigh up his fpl worth.

Isak.

As with Gabriel, I really enjoy owning Isak as a differential. He hasn't looked sharp in the first two games, but his xG has been good, he's got himself a goal and Liverpool have looked attacking.

The smart, sensible, safe move would be to upgrade him to Haaland this week. It's still so early in the season though, and I can't resist giving him these next two games. Ipswich away, Fulham at home. It's a big gamble, but I'll be kicking myself if he does well and I don't show the patience and bravery to stick with him. My whole philosophy in going against Haaland was to have these stronger differential options in my team. If Gabriel, van Dijk and Isak all do well that's a lot of points that other managers can't get to.

Semenyo.

I mentioned this one last time. With Haaland lacking cover will Semenyo get some minutes through the middle? He tends to be a ninety minute player. So maybe he's the Man City option to go with. Especially if I'm forgoing Haaland. I think Foden has looked good and Cherki has started well, but minutes are always a worry. So here we have big question marks.

Lammens.

My keeper choice is looking like a mistake at the moment. United haven't looked impressive at the back. On the flip side, there isn't really an obvious alternative. Plus, I wouldn't be wasting a transfer anyway. When I wildcard I'll naturally switch to two £4.5m keepers, in preparation for the bench boost. Right now there's little point worrying.

Players That I Don't Own

Sangaré.

If I was wildcarding I'd probably have Sangaré. That defcon is so powerful across a season, especially when it's fixture proof - as hard fixtures offer precisely that opportunity to do those defensive things. I've already missed out on two price rises, so this is one where I'm in danger of losing a tempo and falling behind the herd. Hopefully he disappoints.

De Cuyper.

This one's a little bit dangerous. As it's one of those where, if you don't own him, the tendency is to think, "There's no point getting him in now, he'll lose his place soon." Then he just keeps starting. Another where I'm hoping he disappoints.

Tarkowski.

One of my favourite fpl players. I don't think I'll be bringing him in, but he's always on my radar.

Palmer & Rogers.

I want both these players. Next week I'll have the two free transfers to bring them in. The only problem is I'll have to downgrade Fernandes. Part of the non-Haaland plan is being able to move between these big midfielders, but ideally I'd like to leave Fernandes and switch between the others. So maybe I'll just go for one instead of two. We'll see how things look after this gameweek.

Wissa.

I actually had Wissa in my very first draft when I returned to fpl. I think he's a really good pick this season. My current plan means I can't really bring him in however. He'll only become an option when I choose to wildcard. The one saving grace is that I think Newcastle's goals have been very precise. For want of a better word. The goals have been very low xG. The sort of goals where the attackers have had to do everything perfectly to score the goal. So I suspect they've overperformed a little.

Szoboszlai.

I should really mention Szoboszlai as well, given how he punished me in GW1. It's one of those where I'm just not feeling it, but I see him in so many teams. I understand the logic. He has a lot of routes to points. It feels boring and underwhelming though. I think partly it's psychological. Not having Haaland means I have money for the midfield. So I feel this need to have explosive players. To maximise upside. Perhaps I need to think a little harder.

Anyway, we're all set for GW3 either way, and I'm looking forward to it. I often hear people say that it feels "scary" to go against Haaland, or other highly owned players. I really don't feel that though. For me, these weeks where I get to go massively differential are the most exciting. I'll be in work tomorrow afternoon when the Man City game takes place. I'll go on my break at around 5pm and check the scores. If it's horrendous it'll be, "Oh well, I'll give Match of the Day a miss tonight. Back to work." I won't dwell on it. If it goes well I'll be buzzing and I'll have a little spring in my step.

I often see content creators talk about the effect the game has on their mental state. I do understand the disappointment. I can't pretend I don't feel it. However, I think I'm lucky, as I have other interests. So if the fpl isn't going great I just switch off and turn my attention elsewhere. I then come back four or five days later, refreshed, closer to the deadline. I also think it's good to manage your expectations. I know Haaland could smash three or four goals this week and leave me in the dust. So I'm prepared for that reality. Likewise, my idea of victory is somewhat more muted.

If Haaland scores thirteen points and Cherki gets eight I'll see that as a win, or at least a draw. Even though I'll be ten points down. As I'm hoping the rest of my side can make up the difference. If not this week, then at least in the weeks to come.

Some weeks it's just about survival.

The problem is there are quite a few good fixtures for Haaland in the upcoming calendar. Meaning even if I survive this one there'll be more danger to come. The pain for me - and my ego - will come not in having a bad week, but in hitting the wildcard and throwing in the towel.

Right now I'm enjoying being a little contrarian though.