So in the last post I listed the top 15 players in FPL, in each of the four categories. Complete with their points tally for this season and their final price. To do a little bit of analysis.
So what did I discover?
Below is the average price and points tally for the top 5 players in each position.
[For example, for goalkeepers I added up the total points of Alisson, Ederson, Pickford, Etheridge and Lloris (the 5 keepers with the highest points tallies this season), then divided by 5. Doing likewise for their respective prices. On so on for defenders, etc.]
Goalkeepers. Average Price £5.3m. Average Points 161.
Defenders. Average Price £6.3m. Average Points 189.
Midfielders. Average Price £10.7m. Average Points 229.
Forwards. Average Price £9.1m. Average Points 186.
I also did the same for the top 15 players in each position to get a wider sample.
Goalkeepers. Average Price £5.0m. Average Points 134.
Defenders. Average Price £5.8m. Average Points 159.
Midfielders. Average Price £8.8m. Average Points 183.
Forwards. Average Price £8.1m. Average Points 159.
So no real surprises there. The midfielders being the highest scoring. The goalkeepers being the lowest. However, what's interesting is when you look at the points in relation to the price it becomes apparent that the defenders and goalkeepers tend to be better value.
Below is the points per million. So that's the average points divided by the average price.
Top 5 players.
Goalkeepers. Pts/m. 30.4
Defenders. Pts/m. 30.0
Midfielders. Pts/m. 21.4
Forwards. Pts/m. 20.4
Top 15 players.
Goalkeepers. Pts/m. 26.8
Defenders. Pts/m. 27.4
Midfielders. Pts/m. 20.8
Forwards. Pts/m. 19.6
So looking at the points per million for the top end players. A £5m defender would get 5 x 30.4 points over the course of a season - 152 points. A £5m midfielder would get 5 x 21.4 points - 107. Quite a difference!
Now this is a bit of a crude way of looking at it I'm sure, and it's only looking at the season just gone, but it does seem worthy of note nevertheless. In fact, it's quite odd that the averages for the defenders and goalkeepers are so similar. As are the averages for the midfielders and forwards. There must be some reason for this that currently eludes me. Perhaps it has something to do with the algorithms used to calculate the prices.
Obviously the people who run FPL, and no doubt the various experts who have been playing the game much longer than me, will have all the mathematics completely mapped out in depth. So again, perhaps there's something obvious that I haven't quite latched onto yet.
Going forward...
Looking at the numbers it makes me even more attracted to the idea of spending big at the back. I was just going to do it for the start of next season, what with the defensive players being a little easier to predict in the Premier League starting line-ups. However, perhaps it should be a season long plan.
The numbers also show that the strikers aren't great value at all. So even more reason to go cheap up top. Though the problem is of course finding cheap strikers who actually play.
As for the midfielders. Though they seem to be less value, they do tend to score the most points over the season - so perhaps they are good value after all in that regard? Plus they're great captain options.
It seems that there are always a few midfielders who go really big. This season Mané, Sterling, Salah and Hazard have all been head and shoulders above the rest as far as overall points go. Averaging 241 points for the season between them! If I recall correctly from last season both Salah and Sterling were out in front then too.
So maybe a good strategy would be to spend big on defence (and keeper). Try to get the two or three big scoring midfielders. Then cheap everywhere else. Seems like a plan.
It's also worth mentioning that some defenders have had unbelievable seasons this year. Robertson, Alexander-Arnold and van Dijk in particular. So perhaps they're skewing the results somewhat?
Percentage from top 6 teams...
I should also make note of something else that stood out. In the top 15 defenders this season 8 out of 15 were from top six sides (I included Man Utd xD - I perhaps should have made it top 5). Amongst the midfielders it was 10 out of 15, and amongst the forwards it was just 5 out of 15. So perhaps it's worth looking at lower placed clubs for the striker options. Again though, it could simply be another random anomaly for just this past season.
Finally, I looked at my goalkeeping record this season. For most of it I had a rotation between Crystal Palace and Newcastle, only changing after the wildcard towards the end of the season. This worked out reasonably well - 155 points over the season. Only Alisson, Ederson and Pickford alone scored higher. So I'll have to think about that one for the coming season. Rotation or big name? Tough decision.
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