Into The Weeds

Another minus 4 this season. I've taken out Son and Trent Alexander-Arnold to bring in Saka and Estupinan. My original thinking, a week or so ago, was to take a minus 4 to bring in Saka/Foden and Haaland, but Haaland remaining out for the FA Cup tie quashed that idea. Either way though the decision to simply leave Salah on my bench has remained consistent.

I'll be going into GW21 with Salah benched and 10 million in the bank, so looking at things simply on a squad value level it doesn't look too good. You'd think having that much of the budget benched and unused would come at a heavy cost. However, instinctively I don't feel bad about it at all. The money allows me to easily get Haaland in should the opportunity arise, and keeping Salah feels like a fun gamble. It's unlikely Egypt will go out early, but if they do I get a massive dividend. Plus, I will want him back as soon as he is back. It's all well and good saying I'll take him out and put the money to one side to bring him back, but things rarely work out like that. Other issues inevitably crop up. So I'm just going to keep him.

With TAA it was a little different. A lot of people will no doubt keep him, which could prove sensible (of course, what's right and wrong always depends upon your own particular circumstances, so there's rarely a true right and wrong). Going into this run of games the one player I feared was Estupinan, so this gave me a nice excuse to bring him in. I also don't like holding injured players. I could've taken out Senesi instead, who is suspended this week, but the Bournemouth fixtures are okay and I need a decent squad if I'm going to carry a non-playing Salah.

This is how I'm looking for GW21. You'll see Saka is captain (I'm hoping he finally goes big just as I bring him in - it would be just my luck this season given the good luck I've had in other weeks). You'll also see a Brownhill in the starting eleven. This may look like madness alongside the decision to keep Salah ..that spot could easily be a Foden/Richarlison/etc. Even if Brownhill just gets his usual two points though it would mean I'd need a six point swing this week with the minus 4. So I'm actually quite happy to play him. It's another one of these fun little differentials that make the game interesting. Burnley vs Luton is the first game tomorrow night, so as I'm at work it'll give me a little surprise to look forward to at the end of my shift.

On top of this, if I find myself with a luxury transfer in the coming weeks I'll be able to switch Brownhill to Garnacho. So novel ways of managing Salah's absence abound.

I'm also really looking forward to the Newcastle vs Man City game this weekend (thankfully I'm off work on the Saturday), which could be a great game. Hopefully Gordon and Alvarez both do well ..and we see some De Bruyne and Haaland.

2024: The Perfect Start

Since my last post things have went pretty well. This week (GW20) looks to be a very minor red arrow, but prior to that it's been green all the way. I'll share the gameweeks below. (Excuse the endless flags as I've only just took the screenshots.)

68 points (-4) (avg. 40)

63 points (-4) (avg. 44)

 

57 points (avg. 36)

50 points (avg. 38)

85 points (avg. 59)

Trent came in this week for Trippier, not that it made much difference. I got lucky bringing in Solanke for the hat-trick.

I've kinda managed getting a good balance between copying others and making my own instinctive judgements. I was really pleased with the 5 points I got for Gordon this week. I very nearly started Senesi instead, but after some thought I realised it would've been far too kneejerk. Gordon (and Trippier) have both been great for me overall, so completely ditching both would be overkill. Especially given Gordon's price. I looked at the Liverpool and Man City fixtures and thought, "Actually, y'know what, playing Gordon in both isn't too bad at all really given his price. And if I get one return over the two games, which is possible, I'll be more than happy."

So with one in the bag already it feels quite good. Weirdly I felt better about that one assist than all of Salah's captaincy returns.

Going Forward

Now we have decisions to make with both Son and Salah off to tournaments and Haaland still missing in action. Fortunately we have a break before the next gameweek, so plenty of time to let things ferment.

I have some ideas, but nothing is set in stone yet. I'll do another post before the deadline hopefully to get into the weeds a bit. We're entering the planning stage with blanks and doubles creeping onto the horizon.

My current rank is: 37,310

My run from GW13 has been really good.

Hopefully I can keep the momentum going in 2024.

FPL Investments

If you want growth you need investment. A calculated loan on the back of future earnings, to invest in improvements that will add value over time, and grow that future income. Here at fplzebub we're all about widening our pool of talent and upgrading our infrastructure. To take the necessary steps to ensure we don't just compete, but stay ahead of our rivals. Hence today we're announcing a MINUS 4 to sign Ollie Watkins, ahead of the big Christmas period.

(We'd also like to welcome to the team Josh Brownhill.)

The Story So Far..

Before we get to that though, let's take a look at past earnings.

GW13: A slightly sullen 45 points

(avg. 46)

GW14: Exceeding analyst expectations,

80 points (avg. 54)

GW15: Once again outperforming the

market, 43 points (avg. 35)

These impressive results over the last quarter (sorry, I'll knock the market speak on the head now) have resulted in a huge uptick in rank. I'm currently sat at 126k, which I'm very pleased with.

The flags, along with the blank of GW18, have presented me with a bit of a dilemma though. I always begrudge wasting points on transfers. It usually feels so profligate. However, this time I feel it's worthwhile in order to keep on top of things.

Obviously I needed to transfer out the injured Mbeumo. I also wanted to bring in Watkins though, especially for the blank. Originally I was planning to just downgrade Mbeumo this week, then make the move for Watkins after the Arsenal game. (Or even wait until next week to make both transfers - I would've been more than happy to play Archer this week.) Then the news of Son's injury appeared.

On top of this I have just the right amount of money in the bank to do Archer & Mbeumo to Brownhill & Watkins. So I'm sailing a little close to the wind on point-ones. Emptying the bank completely would likewise make it impossible to transfer out Al-Dakhil, should I need to. Who's now dropped down to 3.9m ..annoyingly.

Blank GW18

I want to keep hold of both Alvarez and Haaland, so after using those initial two transfers for Waktins and Brownhill I would've been left with just one transfer to muddle through GW18. With the other bench spot being taken up by the now non-playing Al-Dakhil.

A minus 4 this week really helps to smooth things over though.

Ollie Watkins is in place. Brownhill is a handy playing bench option (if Son does miss out this week), with half-decent fixtures, who can play in GW18. Plus, I now have two more transfers before then to fix issues. If Son is fine it'll be a case of downgrading a keeper to Dubravka and upgrading Al-Dakhil, getting me a bit of bench coverage. If not (or if other issues appear) I've got some leeway to navigate things (hopefully).

Son to Saka would be a pretty straightforward move, so in some ways Son going would remove another potential source of damage.

I've been a little lucky these last few weeks. I am going very much with my instincts now though, so it feels like we're in the slipstream. Skating or surfing along the wave of the season. With a bit more luck things will continue like this.

How it's currently looking.

Oh, and as one final aside. I'm really enjoying owning the Burnley and Luton keepers. That single clean sheet I got from Trafford, plus the odd save points I've been picking up, mean I've actually ended up better off than I would've been with Areola. Albeit only slightly.

Obviously, on paper it looks a complete waste of money, and were it not for the bench boost earlier I certainly wouldn't have had either. In fact, the plan was always to downgrade at least one the moment a free transfer became available. It's worked out quite differently however, and it's added a little bit of variance. A fun little differential I get to watch each week. Both teams are looking a tiny bit more competitive in the league too.

FPL: Steady Sailing

My three gameweeks since the last post have been average, average, good. In GWs 10 & 11 I finished a little below the average, in GW12 a fair bit above. Consequently, I'm now about 50k higher overall than I was back then :)

GW10: 60 points (avg. 66)

GW11: 29 points (avg. 32)

GW12: 86 points (avg. 64)

I benched Tsimikas for that 15 pointer, which was slightly annoying. Putting Kabore in wasn't the brightest idea, although saying that, United haven't been too bright in front of goal, and in the end I was just a goal away from the clean sheet. So not quite as appalling as it looks on paper. It does mean I can keep hold of Tsimikas too. I was thinking he'd be a sell this week.

I'm not sure what I'll do now going forward. Sadly we have yet another international break, so the flow is broken once again. Whenever we have an international break I always pretty much just switch off. I think it's largely pointless making plans so far from the gameweek deadline. It's best just to accept that fpl is cancelled for the week and then get on with doing other things. I'll come back next week with a fresh pair of eyes. Plus, I've been working all weekend, meaning I'm still yet to see any of the weekend's highlights. So I can watch Match of the Day 2 at leisure, and savour my Ward-Prowse points.

Oh, and I took out Saka last week (along with the injured Maddison) to bring in Son and Bowen. Only time will tell how much this will dent me. It's not a move I particularly fear, but Saka picked up another return this week and the Arsenal fixtures are good, giving me a tiny worry. I also worry that Son will be a lesser option with Maddison now injured.  I'm quite happy with my team though, and it's fairly easy to switch these midfielders around.

Current Rank: 401,855

On The UP !

I've had two good gameweeks since my bench boost. The first almost entirely down to having Salah captain. The second pretty much my whole team did well.

GW8: 57 points (avg. 44)

GW9: 99 points (avg. 67)

I brought Tsimikas in this week, and Pedro Porro last, so I've strengthened that bench boost backline up. (You can see I suffered a (-1) thanks to still having Al-Dakhil in there in GW8. The keeper didn't do me too many favours either.). It meant I had to forgo bringing in Son as well, but with Mbeumo finally getting me some points it worked out okay.

I'm now probably going to bring in Saka for Mbeumo as we head into GW10. I like this period of the season: the wildcard is out of the way, and it's just a case of keeping the team in trim with a transfer here and there each week. Obviously I would like to own Son and Watkins along with Saka, but given there's little I can do about it there's little point worrying. It's just a case of keeping the good ship sailing.

I'll only really start making long term plans again once we head into double gameweek territory.

My current rank is 454,270 - so much better than where I previously was, around the 1.8m mark.

I've also built up a bit of team value thanks to that early wildcard. I'm currently at 101.6m. That might not sound spectacular to many people, but normally I always tend to have a team value that hovers around the 100m mark. Maybe if I'm lucky I'll have an extra 0.5m or so. I think it's because I'm not too good at following the template early on in the season. So weirdly that decision to wildcard and bench boost has paid off more in team value than in bench boost points.

More luck than judgement, but I'm more than happy to take it.

The BENCH BOOST: results

I got 13 points from my bench boost. So what follows is sheer cope.

56 points in all ..and I took a minus 4 too. Though, to be fair, that was primarily to bring Son in, so I would've had to do it this week anyway.

I'm actually not entirely disappointed with the 13 points, it could've been much worse with that fixture against Newcastle. In fact, the two save points I got from Trafford in that game turned out to be the high point.

Had each player picked up 2 points per game that would've made 14, so 13 is about par for expectation. I was dreaming of a clean sheet, especially in the Luton vs Burnley fixture, but it was always more hope than expectation. So I've got my par for the course and I can now look forward to the rest of the season without the hassle of worrying about when to play it. (I did say this was cope.)

Past Bench Boosts

I'm actually going to have a look back at my previous seasons to see what my usual average for the bench boost is. I'll do it on the fly. As I type now I have no idea what past seasons were like. I know last season was bad, and I have a vague recollection that the season before was something of a disaster too. I think these experiences probably colour my current feelings towards it.

Anyway, I'll go and have a look at my past blog posts..

[Some time later..]

Last season: 8 points

I captained Haaland and I'm guessing he was rested. I also received 0 points for Virgil Van Dijk and vice-captain Trent Alexander-Arnold that week. So not good. Though last season I was playing monthly, so my options for using the bench boost were somewhat limited.

Season 21/22: 3 points

Ouch. No wonder I have PTSD when it comes to bench boosting 😄. I was slightly unlucky with that one, as Konsa missed both games of a double. Though I think the other three players just had the one fixture, so it wasn't the greatest brainwave in the world to play it.

Season 20/21: 29 points

This one's a bit more like it. I had to do a bit of maths to tally it up. Antonio getting a huge 18 points alone. Making this week's tally of 13 look somewhat puny and wasteful.

Season 19/20: 22 points

Another decent use of the bench boost. This one was during the Covid restart, back in the summer of 2020, so it all just feels very weird though. It's a miracle I managed to focus on football with the Stasi breathing down my neck.

Season 18/19: 23 points

Another good haul, this time with a very Brighton-looking bench.

Seeing these 20-plus scores, along with the much older and poorer graphics, is making it dawn on me how foolish it was to play my bench boost this week. No wonder I was one of the only people going this route. I think those last two seasons really have skewered my perception of the chip. Still though, 13 points isn't too bad, and it's certainly better than 3.

..And that's as far as the blog posts go back.

/////////////

Also, as an aside, when I was searching back I did find this old fpl meme.

It's quite fitting, as my bench boost has probably put me about that much higher than the average this gameweek.

The Bench Boost remains active..

A quick update on the wildcard. Overall it went quite well. However, there was a touch of bad luck with Rodri getting sent off. That messed up my longer term plans a little. Though, saying that, I did get a bit of good luck too, as I took the red-carded Gusto out of my side. Not to mention Chilwell and Wan-Bissaka, who are now both injured. So, all in all, more good luck than bad in truth.

(75 points - the average was 68,

Rodri the main downside)

So, the planned Bench Boost.

Common sense says that it should have been cancelled. It was somewhat unwise to begin with, given the players that have doubles. With Newcastle looking imperious (it's not hard to imagine they'll do similar to Burnley), and flags all over the place, it should now most certainly be cancelled.

That's not what I'm doing though. The fun of playing it has overruled any fears and caution 😬

I've actually taken a minus 4.

(Hopefully Trafford and Al-Dakhil don't

end up in negative territory against Newcastle)

I've removed Rodri and Saka, to bring in Ward-Prowse and Gordon.

I switched Rodri to Ward-Prowse at the end of GW6 - I had just enough to make the move. The Rodri to Saka switch was literally made about half an hour ago. My original plan was to bring in Son for Saka in GW8, but the Rodri red card really messed up those plans, eating up both my free transfer and the 0.5m I hoped to reserve to make the move.

However, the option of bringing in Gordon for Saka, to then move Mbeumo to Son next week, really appealed to me (bringing in Mbeumo is the one wildcard choice I do regret a bit - I should've done a bit more homework). Either way the two moves would've meant a minus 4, either this week or next. So going early gets me ahead of the curve and also allows me to re-activate the bench boost.

It's a very risky bench boost, especially with players in the first eleven at risk of missing out, but I want to take the gamble. I'll enjoy my weekend more with the added chips on the table. Especially if Burnley don't do too badly against Newcastle. (I would've hated going into that midweek game with the players on the bench, knowing I could've went for it.)

And if it all backfires at least I'll go into GW8 with the players I want (assuming Son remains fit and so forth).

My current rank is 1,962,710, so I got a tiny uptick. It's not a great position to be in, but I'm feeling optimistic. Foolishly.