Haaland and Tempo

As I type it's Sunday morning and we're halfway through GW2. The players I own haven't done too badly. Foden two assists. Semenyo one. Isak a goal. It's only van Dijk that's let the side down with a one-pointer. However, in the wider scheme of things I am doing badly ..as I don't own Haaland, nor the twenty-six points his captaincy would've delivered.

So now I'm hoping Fernandes can match him this afternoon. And it's hope rather than expectation.

Consequently, the cogs are turning..

I'm at a crossroads. Do I wildcard to get Haaland? Or do I show more patience and continue Haaland-less?

At the start of the season I mentioned tempo. In the chess sense. I fear if I don't wildcard I'll lose it. That I'll end up too many moves behind. Patience is all well and good, but if there's a clear mistake - and going without Haaland might be a big one - the sooner fixed the better. Especially when Man City have Coventry at home. So why wait?

The problem is, I have another plan. I could just get Cherki.

One transfer. Mbeumo to Cherki. Sememyo, Foden, Cherki against Coventry. Captain Cherki.

It really appeals to the contrarian in me.

I'd then still have two free transfers the week after to get Palmer and Rogers. (With that Haaland money I have the freedom to go big in midfield.)

On top of this, Liverpool have Ipswich next, so I'd like to keep Isak.

I know what I want to do. Is it wise though?

I feel a lot now depends on this Man Utd v Ipswich game. How good Fernandes does or doesn't look. How bad or otherwise Ipswich are.

Thankfully, I'm actually off work this weekend, so I can watch it. Let's hope it's a good game.

GW1 Complete (Nearly): Mixed Feelings

We've pretty much finished GW1. Chelsea are still to play, and I have Joao Pedro, but he's so highly owned it's almost moot.

I don't know whether to see this week as a success or a lucky escape. Fernandes and Haaland both blanked, so my captaincy decision paid off. A massive three points earnt there. From the highlights it looked as though Haaland should've scored, so it feels a bit jammy. Though, saying that, Liverpool looked attacking in their highlights too. Both Isak and Haaland had chances but looked rusty.

In the end it was Szoboszlai that hurt me with the late penalty. (I'm really glad I was at work for that one, as I'd have been hoping it was Isak's and the disappointment would've wounded me.)

Generally people's bench boosts looked a bit underwhelming too, which was a bonus. (Except those with De Cuyper, who justified the bench boost on his own with 17 points.)

I can now just roll my team over for GW2, assuming no injuries emerge. Then, after that second round of data and observation, I can make a few decisions on my path forward.

Man City Midfield

Interestingly, the Manchester City midfield did end up being the talking point. With Guehi starting instead of Kovacic. The general consensus seems to be that Guehi did well, though I suspect that's largely a consequence of the bar of expectation being so low. It also helps that he scored a goal. Either way, it's hard to imagine someone who was a Crystal Palace centre half just a year ago suddenly becoming a world class midfielder. Sometimes these things happen in football, but the odds are stacked against it.

On top of this, Anderson now has a yellow flag. So central midfield is clearly an issue. I wish I'd seen the game and not just the highlights to get a better sense of the performance. For me this is the big question with Haaland. Ultimately it's the team he's in that justifies the price. We know he's going to score, but he's not going to get three or four in a game if he's only getting one or two chances. Thankfully we have another gameweek to assess things.

GW1: Team Reveal

First, I'll further flesh out why I'm going without Haaland.

[Note: This may be cope. Helping me to justify a terrible decision post-hoc.]

I mentioned the price in the last post. £15.5m is a huge price. I'm surprised he's an automatic default in so many teams given the price. It makes me wonder what price it would take to get his ownership below 50%. £16m? £17m? £18m?

Then there are the wider questions around Man City.

Pep gone. Rodri gone. (An underappreciated) Bernardo Silva gone.

How will Maresca do? I'm sure he's a decent manager, but at the same time I don't think Chelsea fans are devasted that he's gone.

I like Elliot Anderson - I actually had him in my first draft. Aside from FPL there's a big question mark over him in purely footballing terms though. A really good player, yes. A title-winning world class player? That remains to be seen.

What isn't in doubt is that Kovacic is a bit average. Again, a good Premier League midfielder. Certainly not a bad player. But not world class.

So, for me, that midfield, if that's the midfield two, has question marks. I think with Bernardo Silva gone a lot now relies on Foden. I think he has to start as the number ten. He's the one player who threads the midfield lines. So that's interesting to me.

Now I'm not saying City will become a bad team if the midfield is a touch subpar. I'm sure they'll still be impressive. However, there's a difference between being good and being really good. Between beating teams 2-1 and beating teams 4 or 5 nil.

What type of City will we see?

Perhaps they'll get a new manager bounce? Perhaps they'll be worse? Perhaps there'll be little difference to last season? It's hard to say. If I had to put my money somewhere I'd say slightly worse though.

Liverpool

With Liverpool there are similar questions. Though, in my opinion, it's hard to see Liverpool being worse than they were last season. So going Isak over Haaland is exciting for me. It's obviously a gamble, but one that pays off handsomely if it does work out.

I also have van Dijk. Which is another nice bonus made possible by not having Haaland.

Who I don't have is Szoboszlai. As with Haaland, this is a decision that could hurt me given how well-owned he is. He's easy to bring in though, given my midfield, so as long as I'm not too stubborn that shouldn't be a problem.

My Team

So, let's have a look at my team.

I'm well hedged on City with Semenyo and Foden in there. Can they cover Haaland? Probably not when taking captaincy into account. Almost certainly if captaincy is taken out of the equation.

It's interesting that their combined cost matches Haaland's single price.

I've also had O'Reilly in drafts at times. However, I don't like the uncertainty over his starts. On top of this, I think the easiest way to get Haaland in GW3 is to downgrade Fernandes to a cheap mid to upgrade Isak. So it's probably worth keeping that third spot free.

I have three Arsenal, which pleases me. Tzolis feels like one of those picks where a new player arrives in the Premier League and everyone gets excited. Then they fail to live up to the hype. I really liked the look of him in the Community Shield game though, and his goal involvement track record is pretty spectacular - albeit in foreign leagues (we've seen similar things before - Timo Werner springs to mind).  So my expectations are low and I see it as a fun little punt.

My Bench

My bench is very cheap - in classic FPL mode. With so many people bench boosting early it feels like a little luxury having a super cheap bench.

As I've noted before, I plan on saving the chips and using them on the fly as things unfold.

There's a high possibility that I could be wildcarding in GW3 if the Haaland decision proves to be a disaster. Which could in turn trigger a bench boost. Though that doesn't appeal to me. I'd rather use it later.

It's even less likely I'll be using the free hit early, as I don't like using it in the first five or six weeks. Mainly because I think it loses you a tempo. I'm using tempo in the chess sense - not that I'm a particularly good chess player. That is, it costs you a move early in the game when getting your pieces positioned on the board is important. If you use the free hit you don't get a free transfer for that particular week. So after four or five weeks you've had one less free transfer than everyone else. At a time when transfers are really important as you adapt to the new information those early weeks provide. (This is assuming you haven't wildcarded early, making it irrelevant anyway. Hence if I need a chip in GW3 it'll be the wildcard for this very reason.)

So that's where I am. Now it's just a case of (hopefully) enjoying the weekend.

As I finish up the one change I'm considering is a Gabriel captaincy. Hull do look like they'll be the whipping boys, but will they get thrashed at home on the opening day of the season? Surely they'll be a bit fired up for it. Likewise, will Coventry score away from home at Arsenal?

Plus, I'm off work today, but in over the weekend. So I'll get to watch this Arsenal game tonight. Why not truly roll the dice and go differential?

..Okay, let's do it.

The Smug One Returns

Oh, am I late again?

Surely it's perfect timing. There's still a week to go. Plus, I've at least got my badge sorted..

A smug little fox. I had my best season last year. I won my mini league. I'm the golden one. So I'm turning up confident.

[..hold on, I'll go and make another cup of tea, then I'll get to my actual plans. I was out last night, so I'm having a lazy Sunday morning. I'm listening to The Beekeeper by Tori Amos - an underrated album, ideal for such circumstances]

Haaland???

My plan is to go without Haaland. I won't share my actual team just yet as it's liable to change over the coming days. (Today's Community Shield should help to enlighten things.)

There are two reasons I'm planning on going without Haaland. Firstly, it's just my natural style. How can I resist being the black sheep? It's my natural tendency.

Secondly, that price difference! I can save 6.5m by going with Isak. Someone with near-Haaland like potential. Though, admittedly, much less likelihood of delivering that. He could do well. He (and Liverpool) could be unimpressive. Whereas Haaland kind of has a track record when it comes to these things.

Nevertheless, it's a gamble I like.

(No) Chip Strategy

I've been watching a bit of FPL content over the last week or so and it seems to be all about the chips. Early bench boosts, questions over when to wildcard, possible free hits.

Needless to say, I'm not thinking about any of these things. I discussed this at the start of last season and my thoughts remain similar.

Veteran FPL players are very used to planning chip use. It's ingrained. You saved your chips for the second half of the season (forward planning in of itself), then planned their use to navigate the blanks and doubles. Something with MASSIVE upside. Especially over casually players who either didn't know or didn't care about double gameweeks.

Now we have chips for the first half of the season as well, and that desire to plan remains. Yet the blanks and doubles aren't there to necessitate that.

So my question is: where's the upside?

And I actually think the upside comes in not planning. In using these chips as problem solvers or afterburners that you can turn on when an opportunity presents itself.

For example, let's say you have Gabriel, but he gets suspended for one game. You can use your free hit that week to navigate that problem. Instead of using one transfer to take him out and another to bring him back.

In turn, saving those two frees means you have more leeway to use the bench boost if you still have it. (I think if you have three or four transfers rolled you can bench boost whenever you fancy it - this is a big challenge for me, as I do find it hard to roll them.)

Enjoy The Bench Boost!

I totally understand how much of a headache the bench boost can be, but the whole point of the chips is that they add a bit of fun. I'm determined to just enjoy it. How many times did I say, "Wow, this would be a great bench boost!" in the days before we had two of them. Now I get to indulge that urge at some point during the first half of the season. I just need to be a bit chill about it and not be too much of a perfectionist. Just vibe it out.

Similar with the triple captain. In a way this is how the chips are supposed to be used. The blanks and doubles are an aberration of fixture pile ups, and it's almost a form of cheating to use these chips as get out of jail free cards. In an ideal season, with no out of place fixtures, the chips would just be fun things to use any particular week you felt an instinctive urge to use them. Like instinctively hitting the afterburner in a race around a Mario Kart track.

At the start of the season my instincts haven't fully kicked in yet. I've literally never seen a lot of these cheapie bench options play. So it feels like forcing things to even think along these lines.

Though, saying this, if Haaland scores a hattrick and the people bench boosting smash it, I'll find myself 50 points down after GW1. Therefore, take my opinions with a pinch of salt it you happen to be reading this. My badge should've definitely been a black sheep. Not a haloed fox with a golden crown.