None of the rules and plans below are set in stone, and I'll update and adapt them over time as new thoughts come to life. Also, they're just my rules and thoughts, and I like to experiment and do things my own way. So if you take any of this advice on board do so at your own peril :)
Hopefully over time this'll become a useful repository for advice. If not it'll at least be a good learning experience.
Rules
- Remember the "top six rule".
- No more than three doubtful starters, maximum.
Ideally you want a first eleven that is guaranteed to start every game. However, in today's Premier League it seems that predicting who will and won't start is becoming increasingly difficult. Especially in regard attacking players. Consequently some of the highest points scoring players aren't always certain to play every game. A good example this season is Sterling. A player I feel is well worth owning, but who at the same time doesn't always start games.
So is it worth owning these players?
My thought at the moment is that they're a luxury you can only afford if you have a decent bench. So ideally I'd only want one such player in my team going forward. Two at a push. Three maximum.
- Take hits as a calculation over 2, 3, 4 or more games.
This is a new one for me. I originally deemed all hits a dreadful idea, unless absolutely forced. However, that's because I was just looking at them in relation to a single gameweek.
A transfer costs 4 points, but on average players tend to get just about 4 points anyway;
- there are eleven players, twelve if you count the double captain as two, and 12 x 4 = 48, which is roundabout the average weekly team score -
Plus, unless the player you're taking out is injured or suspended, you probably would've got at least one or two points for them anyway. So you're losing the points you would've got, plus you're taking a -4. So the player you're bringing in will probably need to get more than 4 points just to break even that week. For example, if the player you took out goes on to get 2 points, you would then need at least 6 points from the player you're bringing in. So for a single week it's a pretty big gamble.
However, if you're taking a hit to bring in a player for the next two, three, four games, etc. Then suddenly it becomes potentially much more attractive. Seeing other people do this has made me completely re-think my thoughts on hits. I'm still not sure if I'm suddenly going to start taking lots of hits (I've only took two so far this season), but it's definitely something I'll be bearing in mind going forward.
- Don't be afraid to break the above rules, just remember to bear them in mind.
It's an ongoing process :)
Strategies
These are strategies I'll be implementing next season. At least that's the plan at the moment.
- Go with cheap strikers.
There are a few reasons for this. First up just the points system - only four points per goal, plus no clean sheet bonus. Seems a bit unfair really. Especially given the way teams defend and press from the front these days. It seems particularly unfair when considering that many quote unquote midfielders play so far forward they're essentially strikers anyway - for example Salah and Sterling.
On top of this you have the fact that many teams tend to play with only one out and out striker. So there are less options to choose from. Plus as teams have multiple forwards in their squad the strikers tend to get subbed more often. Meaning even the starting strikers often only get seventy odd minutes on the pitch. I may even go with just one striker in my eleven come to think of it.
- Start the season with expensive defenders.
It seems like a decent idea to start with expensive defenders from top six sides. As firstly, it's generally easier to predict who will start in defence than in attack. Then secondly, as per the top six rule, players from these teams are more likely to be on the winning side. Especially when it's early in the season and it's hard to know how many of the lower or newly promoted teams will shape up.
- Keep an eye out for attacking full backs from the lesser clubs.
One of the mistakes I made this season was that I ignored some of the great value attacking defenders from clubs outside of the top six (players such as Doherty and Digne for example).
In many ways this ties in with the above strategy. It would probably be smart to start with safe, expensive defenders from the top six, then ditch some of these for better value defenders from lower down the league, as more information comes to light.
Part of the reason I ignored such players this season was simply due to my lack of awareness. Obviously players that play at the back for less prominent clubs tend to be less well known, especially if they're new signings or are playing for newly promoted clubs. We also tend to watch the bigger sides more often. So defenders from lesser clubs tend to go under the radar a little.
The obvious antidote to this is to simply make more of an effort to check these players out early on next season.
- Likewise with the previous list, don't be afraid to change, abandon or adapt plans.
Notes
I'll start assessing my strategy regarding goalkeepers later in the season. Last season I went expensive with De Gea. He had a great season, so it worked well. However, I was very lucky - just check how low down the GK rankings De Gea is this season. This time I've been experimenting with a rotation (Newcastle and Crystal Palace). Likewise, this has went quite well so far. So I'm still not sure which way to go next time out. More thinking required.
No comments:
Post a Comment