The Story So Far..

As I sit typing this Newcastle are currently 1-0 up against Liverpool. It's the tail end of GW3. I've had a thoroughly average week.

Three gameweeks in I'm feeling slightly "Meh" about my team. It hasn't been especially bad - my GW1 was fairly decent, however, weeks two and three have dropped off a bit. On top of this my team doesn't really feel like my team. I've been picking players partly on conservatism, rather than instinct. Largely trying to be sensible, and over-fixating on fixtures.

Anyway, I'll show my progress so far..

GW1: 83 points (Avg. 64)

GW2: 43 points (Avg. 44)

I used my free transfer to switch the injured Stones to Estupinan. This was a sensible move, and I was glad to correct the mistake. I was very lucky in GW1 to not get burned by Estupinan. He got seven points, but easily could've got seventeen. I was doubly lucky as Wan-Bissaka got a very jammy twelve.

GW3: 49 points (Avg. tbc)

(I rolled my transfer.)

Commentary

The Haaland perma-captain makes things a little boring. He's not exactly blowing it out the water so far this season, but he's still doing well enough that you'd feel foolish going against him.

If I'm honest though, I think it's Ederson losing his clean sheet today that has soured my mood. I should be grateful to have two clean sheets out of three from him, but in my mind I'd already pencilled in that third before the late goal.

I'm now in the strange situation where I'm not happy with my team, but at the same time I'm not sure who to bring in. I don't need to use the wildcard, but I think I should do an imaginary one to refresh my senses. Create an optimal team, then see if I can get closer to it with my two frees.

I'd really like to get on Newcastle assets ahead of the curve, but it's a little difficult. Upgrading Joao Pedro to Isak would be nice, but finding the cash could be a problem. I suspect Pedro will start the next Brighton game, so it might be better to hold fire there anyway. West Ham also play Luton in GW4, so switching a midfielder to Bowen or Ward-Prowse is tempting. However, that game is followed by games against Man City and Liverpool, so that would be brave.

..Now that I'm actually looking at my team and thinking about options going forward I'm starting to feel a little more optimistic. The obvious problem is that there are so many good midfield options it's difficult to know who to choose. The wildcard is very tempting, but I must resist. (I'm also wondering about when that Luton/Burnley game will be rearranged - Luton haven't looked great so far, so if the other Burnley fixture isn't too bad the 'Burnley Bench Boost' is a potentiality. So that's another thing.)

It's amazing how writing things down helps you work through your thoughts. I will definitely do an imaginary wildcard - it helps to work out which players I really, really want. Like a centrifuge. I need to start putting my imprint on things soon. Hopefully I can find my rhythm as the season kicks on.

(It's currently 1-1 in the Newcastle/Liverpool game; Darwin Nunez, five minutes to go.)

FPL: Belated Team Reveal

Ederson:

I haven't seen too many people with Ederson in their team, but he seemed like an easy pick for me. The Manchester City fixtures look great, he's nailed on to play, and 5.5m isn't too bad. Obviously, it's a little easier saying this on Saturday morning, after City got a clean sheet last night, but still, it feels like a sensible choice.

At the start of the season it's always difficult to judge what teams will be like. Which defences will be good, which will be bad, etc. City are the team you can be most confident with, and they have good fixtures, so I don't think there's a player in the league you could be more optimistic about when it comes to clean sheets, given the other City players get rotated.

Ederson's ceiling is low - I won't be getting many save points - but if I get 4 or 5 clean sheets out of him in these first 7 fixtures I'll be very happy.

Stones:

This follows on neatly from the last one. I was in work for the deadline, so I missed any team news, if there was any. It was only when I snuck out for my break that I realised I was a man down. It was always possible. Of course, I'd have preferred to have picked up the 6 points, but I don't mind too much. The drop down from expensive defender to cheaper bench defender isn't too steep. If it's a more expensive midfielder with a higher ceiling, and you're then reduced to a bench option that's quite a drop in potential. Here though I'm dropping from a hopeful clean sheet, to a much less likely clean sheet. So not too bad. The fact that it's an injury though, and not just random Pep rotation, could mean I'll have a transfer headache going forward.

For this week all hopes are on Tarkowski now.

Chilwell:

This one's fairly self-explanatory. Lots of attacking potential. Exciting to own.

Wan-Bissaka:

This one really is a differential. I'm not even confident he'll start, so it's a big gamble too.

I really rate Wan-Bissaka as a defender. I think he's got everything apart from the attacking output. Last season he got into good positions, but never had the confidence or composure. It's foolish expecting that to change, but he is still fairly young, so at some point it could just click. He's a cheap price (4.5m) and the United fixtures offer some potential for clean sheets, so I feel this is a nice opportunity to go against the grain.

In fact, the very last decision I made was whether to go with Estupinan and another 4.0m option, or with Wan-Bissaka and Tarkowski. The worry about Stones missing out was probably the deciding factor. It could backfire quite badly if Estupinan does well. My other line of thinking was again predicting how well the teams themselves will do. Brighton were great last season, but there are no guarantees. We saw last season how West Ham failed to deliver after looking excellent the season before (though they did win a trophy 🏆 ).

I'd be surprised if Man United finish in the bottom half, but would I be that surprised if Brighton finish there? - not really. It's similar with Brentford. The difference between top half and relegation fight is very small in the Premier League.

I'm playing with fire though going against the template, so we'll see where we are at the end of the weekend.

Rashford, Fernandes, Martinelli, Saka, Odegaard:

These ones are fairly self-explanatory too. All well-owned to varying degrees. The reason I've went heavy is mainly the fixtures. There are other midfielders that look interesting. Son and Maddison in particular were tempting. Salah too of course. So I plan on losing two of these five at some point to make way for whatever becomes apparent.

Haaland:

Two goals already. What else can be said.

Joao Pedro:

This is one where I'm definitely following the crowd. I don't have a strong gut feeling either way, but the price is useful and the potential is there.

The price bracket isn't great, but I always enjoy having a cheaper striker for some reason. So if I have to take him out it'll be fun throwing another cheapy in there.

Subs:

Tarkowski:

Not a sub anymore. This is a gut feeling one. I quite like this pick, though he was an injury doubt, so perhaps I'm being reckless with these defender picks.

Baldock:

Mainly going with Baldock as the 4.0m as he doesn't blank in GW2. I really like the potential all these 4.0m players offer. For instance, I could happily downgrade Stones to another to bring in Alvarez. Were it not for the GW2 blank I'd have even been tempted to have three and just rotate one into my side each week.

Mubama:

This is another exercise in crowd-following. Know very little about him. Hopefully he gets some minutes. Being a Middlesbrough fan my instinctive pick was Cameron Archer, but I'm not sure what's happening with him.

(Incidentally, I'm also playing EFL fantasy this year.

https://www.gaffr.io

It's quite fun. It's also handy for learning about the other teams in the league. Half the time I turn up at the Riverside with no idea who the opposition eleven are 😅 This might change that ..slightly.)

The Question Is Liverpool, What Is The Answer?

Okay, we're back! Season 23/24.

Obviously, last season I was playing 'monthly'. It was an experience, but an unsuccessful one. Certainly going by rank. You could knock two million off and it'd still be my worst season.

So not great. I'm hoping I've at least learnt some lessons from it though. Plus, I did enjoy it too - it was a very low stress way of playing.

This Season

I've decided I'm going to blog much more loosely this season. I'm just gonna post whatever's on my mind. I'll still do posts showing my weekly score and rank, but I'll keep those brief. Post the points, picture of the team, then bang, out of there. I'm very bored with the posts where I'm basically just saying, "This player got me these points; this player came off my bench, etc."

Anyway, as we start this season the big question I have is Liverpool. What are they going to be like?

My personal feeling is that they seem like a team that's lost its way. It used to be "heavy metal football." A million miles an hour. Mane and Robertson bombing down the left relentlessly. High energy. Exciting. Jurgen Klopp all bright and shiny. Now I'm not really sure what their style is. There have been a lot of new faces, but not a new feel.

In fact, this is one of the things I called right at the start of last season. Everyone was very excited about the new signings last summer, but I feared the absence of Mane. I really think people took him for granted. To be fair, I was considering all that in the context of Salah, and Salah still had a great season fpl-wise. However, Liverpool definitely dropped off. A fifth place finish was very surprising given their previous years.

This is the thing with football. Nothing lasts forever. Sooner or later the magic goes. Mourinho once looked like he would never stop winning things. Then the magic went. Things just change, and sometimes it happens quite fast.

So, that's the question with Liverpool. Was last season a blip, or transition season? Or was it the beginning of the end of an era?

If it was just a blip then with Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold so low-owned they're massive differentials. My gut feeling is to go against Liverpool. However, I do like to go against the grain and gamble. So I'm very, very tempted to do that just in case they do hit the ground running.

It's doubly-tempting as you could essentially ask the same question of Arsenal, only in reverse. Was last season a blip where they over-performed? After all, it was a season where Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs all under-performed. No one really expected a title challenge from Arsenal at the start of the season.

So going with Liverpool picks over Arsenal ones would be quite interesting.

I did a Salah draft earlier today with this in mind, but I just didn't like it. I really wasn't feeling it. So I'm back with my "no Liverpool" draft now.

I really like how my current draft looks (I won't share it here - I think I'll keep my cards to my chest and share it after the deadline. It's pretty template, but still, it's the small differences that matter). Nevertheless, Salah has been so consistently good over the seasons. So the thought of somehow getting him in when so many won't have him is really niggling me.

I'm so desperate to go against the grain that I'm tempted to go against my own instinct.