That Manchester United vs Manchester City game really got me thinking about intent. And how important it is.
I don't want to pick on Marcus Rashford - I could use other United players - but his lack of intent on Sunday in comparison to Bruno Fernandes was quite striking, as he did get on the ball in good positions. Yet never looked like doing anything.
An Example
Let's say two players put speculative crosses into the box from similar positions. At similar points in a play's development. Let's say from the lefthand side of the eighteen yard box, and both crosses go into the same dangerous area of the pitch.
(Player A and Player B
putting near identical crosses into the box)
Now statistically these both go down the same. AI analysis, or just general data analysis, scores them both the same. Two crosses into a dangerous area.
However, in reality, though they're both just percentage balls into the box, the intent on the ball matters greatly.
We know this from watching games - the eye test - and we also know it from personal experience of playing football.
If I'm just having a kick-about and I put a ball into the box - la di da - like it doesn't matter. Then that's completely different to a game where it's important.
"We're 1-0 down, we desperately need a goal. The clock's ticking. This needs to count."
The difference is both subtle and huge. Thanks to that purposeful intent there may be a little bit of extra speed and aggression on the ball, making it harder for the keeper to judge. The slight difference in the angle of the cross as a consequence may make it favour the attackers slightly more than the defenders.
Again, we can witness this difference in intent (intensity) when we watch games. I could clearly see the difference between Fernandes and Rashford (and the other United players). When Fernandes played a cross or forward pass you felt something might happen. Whereas Rashford's shots and crosses were just hopeful. There was no real belief or urgency. Of course, this is all subjective too. Another person might watch the same game and judge things differently. They might think it was Rashford that had intent on the ball and that Fernandes lacked it. Or that Fernandes was just as lacking as Rashford.
This is why it's hard for data alone to gauge these things. We're trying to read subtleties, including things like body language. You could have deeper data. You could for example take into account the speed and angle of the cross. But even then it's not that simple. A pass or cross might need to be slower not faster, and the intent of the player helps them execute it accurately, or with the perfect timing.
So, anyway, I'm thinking that maybe I should use the eye test to ascribe intent ratings to players (and the teams they play for - as obviously the players they're playing with affect the potential as well).
For example, Haaland would be a 9 or 10. In fact, I've probably undercounted for this so far this season. I've been looking at other players with similar or close xG, such as Isak. Forgetting the fact that Haaland is a monster, with superhuman levels of intent and will to score.
So Haaland is a 10, and he's surrounded by players who have (to varying degrees) a similar level of intent. Therefore he's a 10 in a City side I'd score around 8.
Whereas Bruno is a 9 or 10. Let's say a 9. But in a team that's much lower. Let's give a generous 6.
This is actually why I brought Szoboszlai in. On the eye test he looked full of intent. Like he wanted to make an impact on the game, not just make up the numbers. Driving through midfield with the ball. Aggressive shots at goal - nearly all on target. Maybe Liverpool, like United, aren't quite top tier either though. He hasn't had the points so far, so we'll see how it plays out. Had I not watched Liverpool play Ipswich I wouldn't have him in my team. Will I benefit from this in the long term, or would I have been better off not seeing the game?
It's interesting. I'm definitely someone who values the eye test. So maybe this is a way to quantify my impressions a little better.
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