On at half-time ..for a minus one !

My obligatory once a month post. I should really post more often, but Christmas has absolutely snowed me under.

I'll quickly do my usual run down of the weeks I've missed, then move on to where my thinking is.

(Wow, the last update was GW15, lol. I really am falling behind.)

GW16: 83 points (avg. 60)

GW17: 68 points (avg. 66)

GW18: 46 points (avg. 44)

GW19: 49 points (avg. 40)

GW20: 51 points (avg. 42)

GW21: 65 points (avg. 48)

We're currently mid-match of the first game of GW22 ..and I'm getting rinsed. City 1-0 down. Foden off at half time for one point. Nico O'Reilly on at half-time for what would've been a one pointer, but he now has a yellow card 😆. Haaland still on the pitch, but heading for a big fat blank.

In the preceding weeks I'd moved up from around 300k to 200k, but given this start a drop back looks likely.

Anyway ..plans

This is how my team currently looks.

(United now 2-0 up - Nico O'Reilly minus one!)

It's not looking too bad, apart from O'Reilly. Will he start the next game? Will he come on for another one ..or minus one?

I don't mind holding Foden so much, in spite of today and his recent blanks, but obviously he's looking like a sell too.

Gravenberch could be upgraded. Keane will be back after the suspension, but Branthwaite's on the mend, so there's room for worry there as well. If I knew for certain Keane was safe long term I'd just downgrade O'Reilly to upgrade the midfield.

There's also the Arsenal conundrum. Ideally you'd have a team full of Arsenal players this season, but sadly you can only choose three. With the lack of compelling defensive options I'm tempted to triple up on Arsenal at the back, but Saka is so consistent. Plus, Rice is currently the second highest points scorer in the game, at just £7.3m.

There are good alternative options in midfield though. Obviously, after today, Fernandes and Mbeumo are looking tempting. Enzo Fernandez looks like a good option, especially with the fixtures. And dare I mention Salah?

I've currently got two free transfers, so it might be wise to roll again then really jig things up the week after. The fixtures are nice for me this week. (United have just went 3-0 up. Does that mean there'll be a City response against Wolves? Or does it just mean they're rubbish now?) I feel like starting Esteve over O'Reilly given my current mood, but surely when the dust settles that's a great fixture if he actually starts.

(It actually finished 2-0. VAR kept it respectable.)

Anyway, I think patience is the key. You never know, another Bruno Guimaraes masterclass might rescue my week.

I've used all five transfers..

Like an impatient child I've already spent my five free transfers.

Salah out (let's not speak of that anymore); Calvert-Lewin out; Munoz out; Mbeumo out; Anderson out (this one pained me).

In come: Saka; Foden; Bruno Fernandes; Keane; Thiago.

So I'm looking like this:

Recent Weeks

GW13: 35 points (avg. 35)

GW14: 66 points (avg. 58)

GW15: 54 points (avg. 49)

So average or mildly above average.

Salah (I said I wouldn't mention it, but I have to really) destroyed me a little bit. What would've been a huge differential ended up just being £14 million sat on the bench for three weeks.

Obviously, Salah shouldn't have spoken publicly after the Leeds game. However, I can't help but take his side. Liverpool have been playing badly all season. To my eyes he's looked one of the better players ..when he's actually been able to get on the ball. He's had zero service and Liverpool haven't been playing to his strengths. So I do think he's been scapegoated.

Either way, it's been a dagger to my FPL team 😡

Dewsbury-Hall and Elliot Anderson have been my cheap saviours. Hence why it's pained me a little to take Anderson out. The opportunity to get Foden couldn't be resisted though. At some point Gravenberch will likely turn back into Anderson. For now, in spite of the turmoil, Liverpool's fixtures remain too good to ignore.

Having three City players worries me a little bit in regard rotation. Especially as we head into Christmas. Anderson's solid four point returns could well end up being missed. Hopefully not though.

My current rank is: 323,730

Quite a solid drop from the 190k I was at following GW12. So improvement is needed. Or at least dreamed of.

GW13 Could Be Tricky

GW12 went really well for me. Though the (-4) to bring in Mbeumo ended up costing me four points, as he only scored one point, and I'd have had one point from Calvert-Lewin anyway. Still, it puts me in good stead going forward.

59 points - the minus 4 making it 55

The average was thirty-nine, so I got a decent rank boost: up to 190k.

GW13 could be tricky for me though, as it seems like a week where people will be using chips.

I've already made my transfer - taking out Senesi to get Nico O'Reilly. There's a bit of risk here, what with Senesi being so good for defcon and having attacking threat. There's also the constant worry that Pep rotates. However, I'm playing the fixture. With us getting new transfers when Afcon starts it seems over-cautious holding onto them now. So I may as well try to use them to maximise individual gameweeks.

Having Salah, who goes to Afcon, means I'll have plenty of money to splash around when I do start making bigger changes anyway.

Now would be a good time for Salah to do something come to think of it. His remaining fixtures are superb on paper. It's reached a point where I'm not expecting him to do well, but I know that the potential is there to be explosive. Obviously I'd love to see this differential go off. It really is a huge differential. I feel lucky to be in the position having it ..but again, with Liverpool being how they are at the moment, I can't afford to get my hopes up.

Van Dijk Back

GW11 feels like ages ago, it was also quite boring. Though I did get nine points from both Anderson and Dewsbury-Hall, which made it feel like a slight victory. I dropped about five hundred places, emphasising the averageness.

41 points (avg. 38)

Anyway, into GW12.

The flags in the above picture tell the story.

I've switched out Gabriel for Van Dijk, and I've used my second free transfer to move Agbadou to Esteve.

The obvious move would've been Semenyo to Rice (yes, I'm still talking about getting Rice). However, there was a slight snag. Caicedo's played two lots of 90 minutes during the international break. Plus, he got back late ..and it's the early morning Saturday kick off. So there's a good chance he could get rested.

With my bench looking rather sparse it would've potentially left me a little short. So I took the decision to strengthen my bench (a tad - it's not the most impressive upgrade). The move also freed up another £0.4m. Meaning I can potentially do Semenyo to Mbeumo next week if I decide he's a better bet than Rice. So I could end up avoiding Rice again - against my better judgement.

Mbeumo is the player I most fear not owning at the moment. Especially looking at the fixtures. So that's going to be a tricky decision. It would leave the third Arsenal spot open for a Gabriel return too. So it would make a lot of sense.

Captaincy

Oh, and I've captained Salah this week. So all this talk about transfers and benchings is just decorating around the edges really. As it's highly likely it'll be this decision that defines my gameweek.

[five minutes later..]

As I'm typing I'm feeling very tempted to take a (-4) to do the Mbeumo move.

..No, I'm not doing it. Be disciplined. Semenyo could start and it's a great fixture. You can make the Mbeumo move after the deadline. Don't be wasting a precious 4 points!

/////////////////////

UPDATE: I was weak, I took the (-4)

It does look a lot better without the flags though.

GW10 - Going Well Again

Okay, so another week and another return for Salah. This week he looked good - I thought he was Liverpool's best player against Villa. Meaning the doubts I was expressing in my last post have largely disappeared.

I did sell Van Dijk however. I switched him out for Timber (I also did Porro to Munoz).

So ..in GW9 I ended the week with 44 points (average was 46).

And in GW10 I did much better: 86 points (avg. 65).

I'm pretty happy with my team now. The only frustration is that I've now locked myself out of getting Rice by brining in Timber. Rice really is ticking over nicely - assists, goals, defcon points. He has a lot of routes to points. In a way it's six and two threes given how tight Arsenal are at the back. Plus Timber also gets the odd return himself. So Timber's arguably the better option anyway. However, I spotted the potential of Rice at the start of the season, and it's left me with the feeling that I haven't followed my own instincts. I did start the season with him, but then wildcarded him out.

Now with Rice out of the picture the obvious midfield upgrade is Gravenberch. My plan is to downgrade Calvert-Lewin to someone even cheaper in order to upgrade Dewsbury-Hall. I'll have to wait another week to do that though. I like the idea of doubling up on Liverpool as people begin to move back to Salah. Again, Gravenberch and Timber is probably a better combination than Rice and Van Dijk on the whole, so things have worked out well really. Though there's always the chance Liverpool step it up in defence and Van Dijk starts nicking a goal or two.

My current rank is: 328,321

What to do with Salah.

We're midway through GW9 and I have a return from Salah. However, I watched the game and it didn't fill me with confidence. (The goal itself was beautiful though.)

The problem wasn't so much Salah, though he looked uninspired in the first half, it was more that Liverpool looked very average and Salah just wasn't getting the service. They just didn't seem to be playing in a way that utilised him. So it looked like more of a Liverpool problem than a Salah problem.

Watching the game also increased doubts over Van Dijk, (who I also own), though he did once again get defcon bonus. He didn't look imperious, and Liverpool didn't look tight defensively in general.

If I was going purely on eye test I wouldn't own either of these players. However ..it's Liverpool. It's Salah. And the fixtures are great. Leaving me with a bit of a conundrum.

I'm not sure what I'll do, but I feel it could be a big decision in regard how my season goes.

I captained Salah..

Bad week. I got a little too cocky, and went for the differential play. Things didn't work out.

I'm disappointed, but at least I can console myself with the fact that it wasn't a truly terrible idea. I put 2-0 to Man City on the Super6, so I was thinking the damage Haaland would do wouldn't be too punishing - which I was half-right about. I was also expecting goals in the Liverpool game. (I put 4-2 to Liverpool for that one - wrong result, but not a million miles away from the xG.) So it was brave, and only a tad foolish in hindsight.

52 points (avg. 56)

Also, I should be grateful really, as although it was a bad week it could've been a lot worse, as originally I was planning to roll my transfers. Which would've meant keeping Romero and Evanilson - both of whom didn't play. I brought in Calvert-Lewin and Gabriel. So it was a twelve point swing. I'd have really dropped in rank had I not done that.

Going forward I'm not really sure what the plan is ..other than switching the captaincy back to Haaland, which I've already done. Though the away tie to Aston Villa is looking a little less favourable now.

I still like the idea of brining in Declan Rice, though I'd need to free up some cash to do that, and I've only got the one transfer. So things will have to stay as is for the coming week.

The question mark over Salah is getting bigger, but I don't want to kneejerk. He remains a very big differential potentially. Had I captained Haaland I'd probably be feeling fairly happy with my team. The way these things psychologically frame your perceptions is fascinating really. I knew it was a gamble. I knew it came with a high degree of risk. Yet still there's an emotional aftermath that makes you feel down about the entire team, even though it was literally just the captaincy move that swung things for the most part.

Overall Rank: 436,894