Monday, December 31, 2018

Fantasy Premier League: GW20 Review & GW21 Preview :)

I'm getting tired of writing these. The football schedule has been so hectic it's hard to keep up. Saying that though I'll be complaining next week when there's no FPL because of the FA Cup. So I should make the most of it.

I got 50 points this gameweek. Right bang on the average. I've been floating around the average for the last five or six gameweeks, so it's beginning to be something of a bad habit. This final bout of fixtures will pretty much make or break my festive period, so a nice big score in GW21 would be very welcome.

Gameweek Points: 50
Gameweek Rank: 2,859,602
Overall Rank: 195,763

(click to enlarge)

I should start by mentioning that I got my captain right this week. I stuck with Sterling, and it paid off. Showing the value of patience. He outscored the other options I had going into the gameweek - Aubameyang, Hazard and Son. Of the three only Son returned, assisting Harry Kane's goal.

David Luiz did very nicely for me, bringing home a huge 12 points. Likewise Jiménez did well for me, getting 8. Both are proving to be very good value. Apart from that though it was pretty underwhelming. Tottenham's defeat in particular knocked my gameweek back, meaning I ended up with just 7 points from my three Spurs players.

Going into GW21 the games look great, however there are a few potential hiccups. Gündogan now has a minor injury so he looks to be definitely out for the next game, though he would've been doubtful anyway. Plus I'm a little concerned that some of my Spurs players will be rested. Sterling could potentially find himself on the bench against Liverpool too.

As for transfers I have two free ones, but I'm only planning to use one. Transferring Guaita in for Hennessey. Guaita started today so it looks like he's now got the number one shirt. Hopefully once I transfer him in that'll remain the case. I'll also save £0.3m which could come in handy.

It could be a gamble not using my other transfer this week, however the obvious player to take out is Gündogan, and there isn't really an obvious replacement in the same price bracket. Bournemouth's David Brooks is an attractive possibility, but he doesn't always get a full 90 minutes. His fixtures aren't ideal either.

In fact, I have a theory that going into the second half of the season it's better to have players who play for top six sides as their games are a little more predictable. For example, you often get comfortable mid-table sides getting beat by teams fighting relegation simply because those teams need the three points more.

Having just looked at the midfielders in the Gündogan price bracket I notice Kanté and Torreira are there. Very boring options without a huge deal of goal threat, but I'm still quite tempted. Especially given that Torreira has Fulham and Cardiff at home in the next four games. Perhaps I might use that second transfer after all.

Ditching Gündogan would leave me with just one Man City player, which I don't like the idea of, but then again getting in another City player would mean changing things about quite a bit to find the extra cash. Plus there's not much point in keeping Gündogan if he's injured or unlikely to play just for the sake of having City cover.

On top of this Agüero looked back in business today, so perhaps I could bring him in for Aubameyang what with me then having Torreira as Arsenal cover. I'm getting ideas now!

I think I probably will be bringing Torreira in 😄 ..I'll post my team for GW21 below if and when I do that.

(My line-up for GW21)

Normally I do my "Top Five Players I Don't Own That I Fear" here. However, there really is only one player I truly fear at the moment - Mohamed Salah, who looks to be in full flow at present. Pogba also looks pretty special, however it's early in the Solskjær reign and their games have been fairly easy.  I really can't imagine Newcastle being as open as Bournemouth were today. So I'm happy to just be patient and wait until Son goes to the Asian Cup to make that switch. Frustrating though it was to see Pogba yet again turn on the magic - 13, 15 and 18 points in the last three games is pretty incredible.

Anyway, given that I'd need to use my wildcard to bring in Salah I think I'll start doing an "If I was doing a wildcard.." feature. So here goes.

(My hypothetical wildcard - click to enlarge)

I actually quite like the look of that! The midfield in particular looks powerful. The bench is pretty weak though. Plus I've had to lose Andy Robertson 😧 It's amazing what you have to cut out to find that Salah cash.

It's also a little light on Man City. So if they keep piling in the goals that could be a problem for this team. My current side has the same problem, but at least I now have the Aubameyang to Agüero option. If Liverpool race to the title this side could do very nicely though. It's definitely given me food for thought.

I think most of the pro FPL managers use their second wildcard to plan for chips and double-gameweeks, so I'll probably follow suit and try to save my wildcard. In fact, with the one above I haven't even considered the coming fixtures, so I really need to think about it a bit more.

It does look like something of a conundrum getting this second wildcard right. It's definitely nice to have one again though :)

Overall Points: 1,168
Overall Rank: 195,763

Friday, December 28, 2018

FPL GW19 Review: The Template Strikes Back

I got 61 points this week, which normally wouldn't be too bad. However, a lot of the "template" players did rather well, so many of the people around or above me have done a lot better. Meaning I've dropped about 45K places 😮 Felipe Anderson got 15 points, Lucas Digne got a huge 17, and Richarlison got a less impressive, but still helpful 5. On top of this both Salah and Kane, the go-to captains for many people, also brought in the points. Leaving my team struggling to catch up.

Gameweek Points: 61
Gameweek Rank: 2,853,564
Overall Rank: 184,412
(click to enlarge)

On top of all this I also got my captain wrong again. I stuck with Sterling and he blanked for the second time in a row. I'm actually going to stick with Sterling for GW20, a big gamble, but ignoring the recent form he still looks the best option for me. Surely City will turn things around against Southampton!

Fortunately I won my cup game, thanks to my opponent taking a 12 point hit. In fact, my gameweek wasn't at all too bad all things considered. Hazard and Son brought in quite a lot of points for me. Aubameyang scored, and Robertson and Alderweireld both grabbed a clean sheet.

I was also a little unlucky that Trippier, who I brought in, didn't start. Though it should mean he'll be good for this weeks tie against Wolves. At one point I also thought I was on for a Luke Shaw clean sheet - that would've been a Christmas miracle. However, Huddersfield scuppered that with their second half consolation goal.

I think I'll just roll my transfer this week. I'm fairly happy with my team at the moment. Next week, if Hennessey remains out I'll bring in Guaita, as Newcastle's fixtures start getting tougher. So I really could do with having a Palace keeper back as an option. I also have to bear in mind that I'll need a transfer to remove Son when he goes to the Asian Cup. Pogba smashed it this week, so I'm already missing out on the Solskjær bounce. Anderson and Richarlison are also possibilities though, so I'll worry about who to bring in closer to the date.

(How I'm lining up
for GW20)


Overall Points: 1,118
Overall Rank: 184,412

Monday, December 24, 2018

FPL: GW18 Review

What sort of loser spends Christmas Eve writing a blog post about fantasy premier league? Er, me ..and if I'm such a loser how come I got 65 points in FPL this week? And won my cup game! Merry Christmas is you're reading this, 🎅 hopefully FPL isn't ruining your Christmas so far either :)

Gameweek Points: 65
Gameweek Rank: 1,546,382
Overall Rank: 139,801

(click to enlarge)

So the good points;
  • 6 points for Dubravka
  • 6 for Robertson
  • A goal from Gündogan
  • 21 points from Son!
  • ..and 13 from Aubameyang

The bad;
  • Just 4 points from my captain Sterling
  • Hazard and Alonso just picked up 2 points apiece

If I'd have got my captain right I'd have had a really nice week. I can't complain though. Getting 21 points from Son is pretty unbelievable. It also rescued my cup game. Going into the Spurs match I was 12 points behind the team I was up against - a "dead team" with Salah captain and van Dijk (who scored) in defence. So Son's performance turned that right around.

(Son-ta Claus)

Looking forward to the Boxing Day fixtures I have a few transfers planned. Alonso to David Luiz, then Yedlin to either Trippier or Ben Davies. I'm a little undecided who to go for yet. Trippier seems like the smart move, but my gut says Davies. If I want Trippier though I might have to get a move on as I have just enough cash and wouldn't be surprised to see an Alonso price drop sometime soon.

Another bonus looks to be Luke Shaw. He played in Manchester United's demolition of Cardiff, and if things continue like that it might be well worth keeping hold of him. In fact, he'll be in my starting line-up for the game against Huddersfield. I may even go five at the back with my new signings. I'll post my team for GW19 below in a few days time, as it seems a little silly to do another whole post so soon after this one.

(My line-up for GW19)


The Top Five Players I Don't Own That I Fear

I haven't done this for a while so it's a bit of an update. It's amazing how quickly things can change over a few gameweeks.

1. Salah

Salah straight back to the top of the list. I'm starting to feel like I'm going to have to eat my words a little with Salah. I wrote him off as over-valued at the start of the season, however, he has been very consistent and is starting to look like he could end up being the top points scorer in FPL once again. Maybe I'm going to have to start considering him for the New Year's wildcard.

2. Kane

Kane is also looking good. I've always had a similar opinion of Kane, so I'm in no way surprised by how well he's doing. I'm just hoping Aubameyang will continue to keep pace with him. This week's game looks very, very nice for Kane though.

3. Sané

The Sané fear has dropped a little since the last time I did this list. So for the time being I'm reasonably happy just having Sterling, supplemented by Gündogan for City cover. With City I'm a little bit worried that the absence of David Silva and Fernandinho diminishes their potential for goals. I'm planning on captaining Sterling this gameweek, but I'm a little less confident after watching the defeat to Crystal Palace. Saying that though either Sané or Sterling could easily get a huge points haul if they start.

4. Richarlison

Even in Everton's defeat to Spurs Richarlison still managed to pick up 5 points. He's so well owned that every time he scores I feel like it's really going to hit my team rank. West Ham's Anderson is another player that I could put in this bracket, though perhaps to a slightly lesser extent.

5. Pogba

Watching Pogba play against Cardiff highlighted his potential. If the reins are now off and he plays like this going forward he could be a great player to own. There are a lot of potential goal scorers in the United team, but whoever scores it's likely that Pogba will be assisting. Plus he can score himself of course. I may bring him in to replace Son when he goes to the Asian Cup, however, by then I may have missed the boat.

Overall Points: 1,057
Overall Rank: 139,801

Friday, December 21, 2018

Fantasy Premier League: GW18 Preview

I'm fairly happy with my set up this week, so no transfer. I've got some transfer plans going forward, but I've reached a point where I'm really taking a much more relaxed and hands off attitude to things.

I'm actually starting Guendouzi this week, which feels like a bit of a weakness, but Burnley at home is a decent game if he starts. Plus with Guendouzi playing alongside Torreira he seems to have a lot more freedom.

With the rest of my team it's really just a case of hoping everyone starts. If SterlingGündogan and Son all start I should have a decent week. My bench isn't great though, so if they don't it could be horrendous. I'm hoping Luke Shaw makes a return this week, but I'm not hugely optimistic, so that'll be a little bonus if he does. I'll probably move him on next week. My current plan being to drop Alonso for Luiz and then upgrade Shaw to van Dijk. As ever though things can change pretty quickly, so that's something I'll think about more next week.

I'll also have to have a plan for moving Son out in January when he goes to the Asian Cup, so I'll probably use that opportunity to bring in Sané. I may have to downgrade Aubameyang though to find the extra money to make that happen.

My captain for this week will be Sterling, with Hazard vice. Along with Salah they're the two highest points scorers in FPL, so I'll just be whacking the armband of them for the foreseeable future. I think Sterling is the best option, mainly because of the runs he makes into the six yard box. This is why he so often finds himself getting tap-ins ..or playing the last little square pass across the six yard box so someone else can get a tap-in.

(GW18 line-up - click to enlarge)

I'm loving the frequency of games at the moment, so it'd be nice if I can have a good run to make it even more enjoyable. I've been doing okay recently, but it's been a while since I've had a really big gameweek score. Perhaps this is now the time.

I've also just had a quick look at the team I'm playing in the cup, and it seems to be a "dead team". So hopefully I won't lose that one. They've got three players (Arnautovic, Holding and Mendy) that are definitely out injured, so unless the manager resurrects his or her interest and makes some transfers I should have a bit of a head start 🏆 ..be embarrassing if they knock me out though 😳

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

FPL: GW17 Review

Pretty tidy week for me. 61 points. Won my cup game too (61 - 54) which is always nice. For some reason going head-to-head with some total randomer adds a little extra spice to a gameweek. Hopefully that'll continue.

Gameweek Points: 61
Gameweek Rank: 442,624
Overall Rank: 173,687

(click to enlarge)

The Good:
  • Dubravka 9 points
  • New signing Alderweireld, 9 points
  • Sterling, my captain, came off the bench and grabbed a goal
  • Hazard 13 points
  • Jiménez 9 points
The Bad
  • Robertson just a 2
  • Alonso just a 1
  • Gündogan and Son just a 2 and a 1
  • Likewise Aubameyang and Success

In fact, I missed a trick by starting Success and not Guendouzi. Success should always be my third bench option really, injuries aside. Whereas Guendouzi seems to be starting for Arsenal, so there's a bit more potential there.

Alonso is also a tiny bit of a worry. His ink seems a little dry at the moment. It's not a major concern, but David Luiz looks like more value currently. It does mean that there's an extra £1m in the bank to spend if I need it elsewhere though :)

I'm also not totally sure that Aubameyang is providing decent value for money. A cheaper striker, perhaps even Firmino back, would make more sense. However, it creates the problem of not having good Arsenal cover. He definitely still seems like the best Arsenal option at the moment, so maybe that alone justifies the extra cash.

Another minor headache comes with Hennessey's injury. He missed out, with Guaita taking his place. I actually watched Guaita play earlier in the season when we (Middlesbrough) beat Palace in the League Cup. He looked quite nervy, especially with his kicking. Though to be fair he was playing in quite a weakened side and the whole team looked poor. Not too sure what I'll do if Hennessey loses his place going forward. It's not a pressing issue though with Dubravka still looking quite good.

The sacking of Mourinho today also makes things a little interesting. Will Man Utd start brightening up a bit now? I'm looking to get rid of Luke Shaw, but perhaps it may be worth keeping hold for a few more weeks. Even a new manager can't magic away injuries though, so perhaps I should just continue with the plan I had.

Overall, I'm fairly pleased with my team. It feels quite balanced. My big worry is not having Sané. The Sané + Sterling combo looks like it could be very, very effective. It would mean making major changes to get him in though. I think I'll probably just wait it out while Spurs have good fixtures and then look at upgrading Son to Sané at some point down the line. As ever though it's difficult making plans so far in future as things change so quickly.

Overall Points: 992
Overall Rank: 173,687

Friday, December 14, 2018

Fantasy Premier League: GW17 Preivew

I've got a big dilemma this week. I'm really not sure what to do. Luke Shaw looks very doubtful, Alexander-Arnold looks to be missing out due to injury, and Yedlin is suspended. So who do I take out, and who do I bring in?

Alderweireld was my plan, but it's hard to be certain if he'll start tomorrow. Great game though, home to Burnley. The sensible option would be just to reverse last week's transfer and bring back David Luiz, as he looks nailed on to play. I'm also tempted to take a minus 4 and just make a double change. That way I'd have a much healthier looking situation, with fewer fears about getting a full team out. Decisions, decisions.

(....5 mins later)

Okay, let's just go for it. I'll go with my gut and bring in Alderweireld for Alexander-Arnold. Let's see how that plays out.

So here's my team; Sterling captain, double-up on Spurs, Success gets a game (hopefully he'll start). My bench is pretty weak though, so fingers crossed I don't need it.

(click to enlarge)

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Fantasy Premier League: Xmas Assessment

I've reached a point where I'm starting to reassess my season. Last season was my first playing FPL and despite not having a clue what the rules were for the first few months I actually achieved a pretty decent finish (109,229). In fact, I remember using my freehit chip purely out of boredom in the first few months, completely unaware what double-gameweeks were, let alone thinking of saving chips for them. Likewise I had no idea there was a whole community online on YouTube, Twitter and elsewhere discussing FPL. So I was purely playing in my own little world, only really concerned with the other players in my works league.

(What would Pep do?)

Anyway, after being bitten by the FPL bug last season I started this one with a serious head on. In anticipation of the season I also started half-heartedly watching some of the FPL YouTubers, gradually getting sucked more and more into the world of FPL experts and pundits.

Having had such a decent season last year I started this one very confidently. If I could finish 109K last season as a newbie, how high could I finish this season? I said my aim was to beat last season's rank, but secretly deep down I felt I could aim higher. Top 10K, top 1K, top 100! Maybe I could even win it! Top 100K should be easy. It was the minimum I was aiming for.

However, 16 weeks into the season I'm starting to realise that I'm perhaps not as smart as I thought I was, and that perhaps I was very lucky with last year's finish. Having Salah captain week-in, week-out probably helped too.

This week in particular has highlighted some of my naivety, and that maybe my crude methods aren't quite as good as the methods used by the top FPL managers. Doherty, Digne and Richarlison all scored this past weekend. These are all players that feature in the current template team*, and they're all players that I've overlooked. They're part of a long list of value template players I've chose not to select at all this season.

It's a long list;

  • Doherty - in fact, I haven't had a single Wolves defender all season. Not even the cut-price Bennett.
  • I ignored Leicester's Maddison who's continued to score.
  • I ignored Richarlison. Who has been superb value.
  • Digne likewise.
  • Wan-Bissaka - though to be fair I had Tomkins from GW1 so it would've been a little pointless wasting a transfer to make that change.
  • I haven't owned a single Bournemouth player! No Wilson, no Fraser, no Brooks.
  • I've also completely ignored Mitrovic and Arnautovic.

Basically, if a player is in the template team and isn't playing for a top six side I won't have owned him ..and I think this brings me to how my style of play tends to differ from that of the expert community. I tend to have a view that reflects this crude idea;
The top 6 teams tend to beat the bottom 14 teams in the Premier League. Therefore it's better to own a decent player in a top six team than a good player in a lower team, as statistically they're more likely to be on the winning or scoring side.
However, the more successful FPL managers tend to have a more sophisticated view, where they're able to isolate the players in the lower teams that are especially good and that are highly likely to score points. Players like Doherty and Digne. Leading them to be able to have some cracking "value" players, and also freeing up more money so they can then get the very best of the expensive players.

I tend to have more of a spread of top five/top six players. Even now I'm looking at replacing Shaw with Alderweireld this week, whereas every other serious player in my situation would stick in a Digne or a Doherty - my thinking being;
Even though Alderweireld isn't a likely goalscorer, surely playing for Spurs he'll get more clean sheet points than an Everton or a Wolves defender. So therefore he's a better asset, even taking into account his higher price.
So far this attitude of mine hasn't been working though. I'm doing okay, but I'm not doing as good as some of the more experienced and more canny pro-managers. I've been really missing out by not having some of these great value players like Doherty ..and the managers with these template players have been much more shrewd and successful so far than me.

I tend to focus on the eye-test method - i.e. I watch games and I pick the players that I think look good. I don't really pay too much attention to statistics. However, I'm starting to realise that one flaw with this method is that you tend to miss players that play for the lesser teams.

If a player plays for, say, Liverpool, you'll watch a lot of their games and quickly get familiar with who that player is and how they play. However, with the lower down teams you generally see them play less frequently, and when you do you tend not to spend the entire game focusing on how well an obscure full back or centre half is playing. So it takes much longer to gain a familiarity. With this in mind it seems the stats are much better at drawing your attention to these players than their performances on the pitch - most of which you're either not watching, or not paying attention to when you are.

So what do I do going forward? Do I keep doing what I'm doing and hope that it pays off - after all it is only GW17 we're up to. Or do I start paying more attention to what other people are saying, adapt my playing style and start following the template more?

It's an interesting question. I think for the time being I'll probably continue with my own plan, see what happens, and then try to take a different tack next season when I can have a fresh look. Then again, perhaps I'm already adapting in someway now - purely by osmosis. Simply soaking up all the various opinions and information put out there by other people, without even realising the effect it's having on the way I'm playing the game. It's really quite hard to tell.

Also of course, the "fun" aspect needs to be considered. Would I enjoy playing if I was just following advice rather than arrogantly thinking I know better than everyone else :) Maybe the fun comes with doing things slightly differently and seeing if they work.

Perhaps the low-owned players I have (or will have) like Alderweireld and Gündogan may be the assets that give me an edge on people over the coming weeks. I can at least hope 🙏


Merry Christmas ... and good luck in the coming gameweek  🎅🎅🎅


/////////////////////////////

*The template team is the generic standard team that most FPL managers, or at least most of the serious FPL managers, tend to conform to. It's basically an amalgam average team. Reflecting the wisdom-of-the-crowd thoughts of the FPL community.

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Fantasy Premier League: Gameweek 16 Review

Very weird gameweek for me. I only finished 3 points under the gameweek average, so it wasn't too bad in that regard. However, it felt like quite a lot went wrong.

Gameweek Points: 52
Gameweek Rank: 3,145,170
Overall Rank: 237,836

(click to enlarge)

So, the list of things that didn't go my way;

  • First up, Alexander-Arnold, who I brought in with my transfer didn't play
  • Then Salah goes and gets a hat-trick - giving all his owners a huge boost
  • Then no Luke Shaw once again
  • Then, David Luiz, who I removed for Alexander-Arnold, goes and scores and gets a clean sheet (!)
  • Sterling, my captain, then ends up with just 2 points
  • And then, Yedlin, coming in off my bench, gets sent off
  • Finally, the highly owned Doherty, Richarlison and Digne all score
  • So ..not too good.

Some things did go right though;

  • 11 points for Robertson
  • 9 for Hazard
  • and 14 for Son
  • plus a 6 and a 5 from Alonso and Aubameyang respectively

So, things could have been much worse. I'm going to do another post assessing my season so far next, so I'll leave the review at that. I think it's time to assess how things are going!

Overall Points: 931
Overall Rank: 237,836

Friday, December 7, 2018

FPL: GW16 Team Update

So just a quick little update showing my team for GW16. Trent Alexander-Arnold now in for David Luiz. The team looks a little better. Hopefully Luke Shaw will get a game, but I'm not especially hopeful.

Sterling is captain. Probably not the greatest game for him away to Chelsea, but it seems the sensible option given that he was rested midweek. I could have went Aubameyang, however it's hard to be certain who'll start up top with Arsenal and I don't like the uncertainty. So he's vice.

(click to enlarge)

Hopefully it'll all go better than the last gameweek.

Thursday, December 6, 2018

FPL: Gameweek 15 Review

Brutal gameweek. Just 35 points 😓 ..sad times.

Gameweek Points: 35
Gameweek Rank: 4,658,916
Overall Rank: 195,678

(Don't look! bad players)

The gameweek average was 45 points. Actually, sad faces aside, it wasn't too bad for me all things considered. It could've been a lot worse. Plus, with the exception of the Luke Shaw move, which I'd been regretting previously anyway, there aren't any players that I feel especially rueful of owning. So it's not like it's one of those weeks where I feel the need to rip up my team and start again.

Along with Shaw - Robertson, David Luiz and Sterling were all benched. Meaning four zeroes from the get-go. On top of that Gündogan came on for just 17 minutes, gaining just 1 point, and the usually reliable Alonso played, but earned me another zero. Making it five in total.

Hennessey got me just the 1 point. Making a mockery of my previous post about goalkeeper success.

On the brighter side though Son and Jiménez both scored, and Hazard - my vice-captain - got an assist. So they lifted my gameweek out of the doldrums somewhat.

I was also quite pleased with my bench. I only got 5 points in total from my three bench players, however, they were very precious points this week. So it shows the value of having three bench players who get game time.

Going forward my plans remain pretty much the same. At some point I plan to bring in Sané for Hazard. I'm really not sure what's happening with Chelsea at the moment. They looked so vibrant earlier in the season, but now they look like they've returned to the more plodding style that was usual under Conte last season. My reason for bringing in Hazard early in the season was not just his performances, but the whole team performances under Sarri.

Hazard, playing in that "Sarri-ball" style of play looked like the perfect combination. Now Chelsea seem to have hit the wall he doesn't quite look the same value. Still though, his two assists in the last two gameweeks have been valuable to me. So there's no rush to make the transfer just yet, though Sané obviously looks much better value at the moment.

Perhaps Chelsea will find some verve again soon. It's maybe a bit unfair to judge them so harshly given that they've actually had a fairly decent season so far.

GW16..

This week I'll be bringing in Alexander-Arnold. Either for Luke Shaw or David Luiz - depending on Shaw's fitness. I definitely don't need two Chelsea defenders at the moment, but the Shaw injury may end up being the more pressing issue. I'm also thinking of tripling up on Liverpool in defence going forward! Perhaps adding van Dijk as well. That would feel like a very unorthodox thing to do, but man for man the Liverpool defenders just look like great options. So does it matter if they all play for the same team? I'm also looking at Spurs defenders, but it's so hard to predict their back line. I'm still considering Alderweireld, but I'm unsure.

Three Liverpool and three Man City players seems like a good recipe in general, but with having three City attackers it makes it difficult to accommodate the Liverpool attacking options. So perhaps the defenders are simply the best value Liverpool players to have. Just one more might be enough this week though :)

I'll do a short, quick post highlighting my team for GW16 tomorrow.


The Top Five Players I Don't Own That I Fear

1. Kane

People with Kane captained cleaned-up yesterday. So the difference between not having him and having him was huge. If that continues it'll be pretty bad.

2. Sané

Again, whoever plays for City in those positions looks set to get decent/huge points hauls every week.

3. Mahrez

I think Mahrez is actually up there with Sané in this regard. Someone will get all three players and clean up every week the way things are going. Though things do change pretty quickly in football, so it would be a brave decision.

4. Richarlison

Richarlison continues to look good value, and when he scores, as he did last night it really feels like everyone else who owns him is getting a head start on me.

5. Wilson

It seems weird talking about fearing not owning a Bournemouth player, but his goal scoring exploits this season have been supremely impressive. I keep just assuming his form will drop sooner or later, but perhaps this could just be his season.

Also, I've left Salah out the list this week. Mainly because other people are starting to ditch him. So he seems less of a threat. However, he got an assist last night off the bench and is showing a remarkable level of consistency in the points department. Even if his performances aren't especially great on the eye. Firmino also scored again last night. Making it two goals in three games since I took him out - which has cost me. I should've shown more patience!

Agüero is also missing from the list, though that's mainly due to the fact that he's missed the last two games with injury. It's interesting seeing how quickly he has fell out of fashion with FPL managers. He's definitely someone who could come back to haunt a lot of people who have now removed him, including myself.

Finally, I should mention that I picked out Philip Billing as a good potential bench option a few posts back. However, he's now suspended for the next game, so I dodged a bullet there. A warning to anyone reading this not to take my advice. I really feel I need to find a 5th midfielder with better potential than Guendouzi off the bench, however it's hard finding the right player. Guendouzi actually played well yesterday, but goals and assists look unlikely, even if he manages to get more starts. Billing is still on my list of potentials though once he returns.

Overall Points: 879
Overal Rank: 195,678

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

#FPL - GW14 Review / GW15 Preview mash-up

I better get a move on with this one given that the deadline for GW15 is in approximately two hours time. First up my GW14 performance;

Gameweek Points: 69
Gameweek Rank: 345,137
Overall Rank: 115,983

(click to enlarge)

Very nice! Sterling came in as captain, replacing my first choice AgüeroGündogan in particular did well for me and clocked 10 points. The only real downsides were Luke Shaw - getting just 1 point, and Yedlin coming off my bench with a huge fat zero. Other than that though pretty good.

So GW15. I've actually just made a transfer! A bit of a knee jerk one responding to the news about Agüero (possibly) not travelling with the squad for tonight's game against Watford. So I've brought in Aubameyang in his stead. It's shook up my plans a little as I had literally no intention of selling Agüero until just a few days ago. Especially as I'd only just recently brought him back in.

I still want three City attackers, so it means at some point I'll probably have to drop Hazard and bring in Sané. Which looks nice on paper at the moment given recent weeks, but which I have reservations about. I'm really not too sure I want to lose Hazard. I'll definitely be waiting until after the Chelsea v Man City game at the weekend though to do it if I do. Even now I've dropped Agüero I still stand to have five players involved in that game, which looks like something that could potentially ruin my GW16. Which brings me to my next headache...

..Alderweireld. I was planning to bring Alderweireld in for David Luiz before the City game. However, the fact that he was dropped for Sunday's game against Arsenal is now making me have second thoughts. Before that game it seemed like he was the only nailed on Spurs defender, and he seemed like the most sensible choice for banking the Spurs clean sheets. His absence though has scuppered that. I've also read more talk in the papers about a potential move to Man Utd in January. Which adds even more doubt.

He was said to have just been rested on Sunday, which was probably sensible given the games Spurs have coming up. Their paucity at the back also highlighted how important he is to that defence. So I guess it could be read either two ways: either his absence has highlighted his value even more, meaning he'll be guaranteed to start going forward. Or, it's a sign that, even in spite of his value, his problems with the club are too big and he'll be gone sooner rather than later. It seems madness that Spurs would be prepared to lose such an important player mid-season. So it's hard to imagine him going, but this is football.

Also in light of Luke Shaw's recent injuries I'm beginning to seriously regret bringing him in. It's been a huge mistake. Not quite on the level of the Sokratis mistake, but still enough to annoy me. I should have just went for the obvious choice in that price bracket - Alexander-Arnold, but once again I tried to be too clever. So that could be another transfer I'll be making in the not too distant future.

Goalkeeper thoughts...

Also, a final thing worth mentioning in this little review section is my goal keeper situation. At the start of the season I decided on a Newcastle/Palace rotation, which I felt was quite sensible. However, it raised a few eyebrows as it meant some gameweeks I would have a £5m goalkeeper sat on the bench, wasting a precious £0.5m. Anyway, after a nice 6 points from Hennessey this week I thought I'd look back and check what my average score has been in that position this season.

Turns out it's 4.6 points per game, which I'm really pleased about. Coupled with the fact that I haven't had to waste transfers on goalkeepers it means I feel quite justified in the decision. Though saying all that, having just checked, if I'd have just went with Hennessey alone from the start he would have averaged me 4.35 points a game. So I've paid £0.5m for just 0.25 points per game 😂

Liverpool's Alisson would've have gained me 5.1 points per game.
Man City's Ederson - 5 points.
Chelsea's Kepa - 4.5 points.
Pickford - 4.5 points.
Joe Hart - 3.9 points.

Dubravka alone would've gained me 3.7 points.

This'll be something worth keeping an eye on over the course of the season. In fact, it may help me with my plan for next season. It might be worth understanding the basic maths surrounding two cheaper keepers versus a more expensive single one.

So here's my team for GW15;

(My team for GW15)

Like Shaw, Robertson is also said to be an injury doubt.

I'm actually quite confident looking at the Wolves v Chelsea game. Wolves don't really bully teams and they've been on a poor run, so that could be a great tie for my three Chelsea players. Sadly I also have Jiménez, so anything from him will cancel out my two potential clean sheets 😡

I also wouldn't be too surprised if Sterling and Gündogan are both benched. So that could hurt me this week. Likewise with Son too I guess. Really I just need a solid performance this gameweek, to capitalise on last week's gains. However, I'm a little bit worried as there seem to be a lot of doubtful starters in my side. Plus my bench options all have tough ties - that's even if they all play.

Hopefully it'll all be rosy though.