Anyhow, my feeling is that there is a heavy psychological bias against free hitting in blank gameweeks, which presents an opportunity for those that go that route.
In comparison to free hitting in a double, free hitting in a blank feels incredibly boring, as there are only a handful of games - and those games tend to be uninspiring. The bigger teams and big name players being absent.
On top of this, it also feels like you're not getting much extra by using the free hit. You might be able to get 8, 9, even 10 players for the blank by managing your transfers. With a (-4) hit or two, perhaps even a full eleven. Including an optimal captain. So, the feeling is, why waste the chip. Especially if you can save it for a double gameweek, where you can potentially select eleven very good players, each with two games.
So, using it in a double gameweek is much more fun and exciting. The ceiling that week if it pays off obviously much higher too.
But..
Here are the upsides to using it for the blank:
1) You don't have to wreck your team planning for the blank. By free hitting you can just continue sailing along peacefully with your team. Choosing the players you genuinely want, rather than restricting yourself to players that get a game in the blank. Essentially you can just ignore the blank if you're free hitting.
2) You have an optimal team for the blank gameweek, when most other managers won't have that. Especially if the popular move is to free hit later. Meaning eleven players that each have real potential to return, when most managers have to make-do and mend with players that would normally only be bench options.
3) You have a bench (and a decent vice captain). Usually we don't have to delve into the bench, but there's always the possibility of a benching or an injury. So if a key player does go missing, by having a good first bench option, you're instantly up on most other managers.
4) A bit of a continuation of that last one - you have eleven players. Not especially exciting, but many people going into that week will not.
5) This is my personal favourite. Hits feel like a (-2) for managers that don't free hit, but for you those hits are still a (-4).
..if a manager isn't free hitting the temptation to take a (-4) is enhanced in a blank, as the player they're bringing in will almost certainly get 2 points just for playing. Which is 2 points more than having no player. So it makes sense to bring in a player as you only lose 2 points if they blank (as opposed to a normal week - where you'd lose the (-4) along with whatever extra points the player you were taking out would've earned).
However, from your point of view, as a free hitter, those managers are still spending 4 points. Meaning you're instantly up 4 points on every manager that buys one transfer; 8 points up on everyone buying two; 12 points on those buying three. That's before the first game even kicks off.
So..
..all in all, you have the extra hit points, the extra points for having more players fielded (even if it's just a few appearance points), the extra security of a bench, and you'll have some optimal differentials that can potentially score decent points that week.
It's the closest you get to having a week where you're guaranteed to outperform most other managers.
Free Hitting In A Double
Obviously, in counterpoint, the ceiling is much higher in a double. However, the outperformance isn't as guaranteed, as most people will still have a strong team for the double, as the players needed tend to be the players people want long term anyway (unlike in the blank). Also, the good single gameweek players people have will still have the potential to outscore or match the doublers. (We've seen this week how easily that can be the case.) Also, other chips can be used that week.
So, personally, I always enjoy free hitting in the big blank. It feels like such a simple solution to such an obvious problem, and the more people that choose to navigate it with hits because that doesn't excite them, the happier I feel about doing it.
Again though, this is just my way of thinking about things, and there may well be flaws in my thinking. Plus, as ever, no two teams, or two seasons, are ever the same. So the reality is, it's never really that simple anyway.
