Friday, August 31, 2018

Fantasy Premier League: Gameweek 4 Preview

Okay, so my first blog post looking at my FPL team this season. I probably should have started doing this the opening week, but never too late I guess. Last season was my first season and I did fairly well, finishing around the 100k mark - 109,229 to be precise. It's hard to tell at this point if that was down to beginner's luck or genuine good judgement. So this season will be the test. My aim is to finish within the top 100K this season, so that will determine success or failure for me.

So, my team. I'll start with the goalkeeper. I had De Gea last season, which was a pretty good shout, but this season that option doesn't look as good so far. So the choice for FPL managers this season seems to be sweeper keeper, i.e. the likes of Ederson or Alisson, or cheaper keeper. I've went with the cheaper option. Going for Hennessey. In fact, I'm going for a rotation this season with Newcastle's Dubravka currently sat on my bench. It's a little bit unorthodox to have a 5m keeper sat on the bench, but I decided at the start of the season that a Newcastle/Palace rotation would be a sensible approach, and I'm still quite happy with that.

(Hennessey - click to enlarge)

I also have a Yedlin/Tomkins defensive rotation going on, though both will be on my bench for this gameweek.

As for my starting defence I have the big three - Robertson, Mendy and Alonso. I actually started with three high end defenders - originally having Robertson, Alonso and Azpilicueta - so I'm quite pleased with my judgement here. I swapped Azpilicueta for Mendy for obvious reasons. However, I'm hoping at some point Mendy's price will rise to reach parity with Azpilicueta's so I have the option of switching back. I'm a huge fan of Azpilicueta. He's reliable, rarely gets injured and consistently racks up the points, so I begrudged loosing him a little bit when I made the switch.

(Robertson, Mendy and Alonso)

My midfield is what's let me down this season. I made the mistake of choosing Shaqiri. I was really hoping he would get more game-time. In fact, I was secretly hoping he would force himself into the team and occupy the "Coutinho" position as fourth attacker. Klopp played Oxlade-Chamberlain as an attacking midfielder last season, so I was hoping Klopp would do similar with Shaqiri. It would be quite an impressive front four if he did.

I've now transferred him out for Lucas Moura. It seems like a sensible switch, but as ever with these things it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if Shaqiri now gets his chance to shine and Lucas Moura blanks or finds himself on the bench.

I love having Hazard in my team - he (and Chelsea) look superb this season. I actually used my wildcard after Gameweek 2 precisely to bring him in. So I have big hopes.

The weak link in my chain at the moment is Arsenal's Guendouzi. It's never nice having a 4.5m midfielder in your starting line-up. The fixture (away to Cardiff) is a good one though, so hopefully he'll keep his place again this weekend. If David Silva starts too that'll be another huge boost for me.

(Guendouzi, Silva, Moura and Hazard)

As with my defence I've been quite pleased with my attack so far. I've had Aguero, Firmino and Zaha since the opening week and have no plans of changing things.

As you can see from the above image I'm going with Hazard for my captain and not Aguero. This is quite a big call given Aguero's record against Newcastle. However, under Rafa Newcastle tend not to lose games by large scorelines. Granted Aguero got a hat-trick against Newcastle at home last season, but even in that game it was just a 3-1 scoreline to City. Not the usual drubbing lower placed teams often get at the Etihad.

So I think Newcastle will probably park the bus to reasonable effect, whereas I think Bournemouth will go to Chelsea and try to play. So I slightly favour Hazard this week. Having Aguero in my side though I'll still be over the moon if he grabs another three or four :D

(Zaha, Firmino and Aguero)

Finally, my bench going into GW4 isn't too bad. I'm hoping Tomkins will have recovered from last week's minor injury. Had he been fully fit I'd have possibly considered him ahead of Guendouzi. It'll also be a relief when Newcastle's fixtures start to look a little more favourable as I'll be able to utilise Dubravka and Yedlin to better effect too.

(My Bench - Dubravka, Tomkins, Stephens and Yedlin)

Last time out I finished the week with 55 points. Nothing spectacular, but five points higher than the gameweek average. So all in all not too bad. Hopefully this week will be a little better though.

(GW4 team-sheet - click to enlarge)

Also, given that this is my first post of the season I might as well explain my reasons for not choosing either Kane or Salah. Firstly, the price of both players is just far too off-putting. If Salah does what he did last season then he'll be well worth his 13m price tag, but I think that is highly unlikely. 300 points in a single season is just incredible! I do fear it happening though, and will probably start to panic if he scores three or four in a single game over the next few weeks.

I actually think Kane is probably the better option. He's comfortably scored over 200 points in each of the last three seasons, and given that he seems to have started early this season he looks good for another decent points tally. Plus he's almost guaranteed to start most games. Still though his price compared to Aguero or Hazard is quite hefty. So if Aguero keeps starting then he looks like the better option ..and Hazard in an attacking Sarri-ball side looks almost perfect.

Hazard has broken the 200 point mark in previous seasons, and in those seasons he was playing his football in more negative sides.

It's very early days though, so it's impossible to know how correct these opinions may prove to be. Fingers crossed though :)