Yes, I'm gambling. So I better post my team now, otherwise I won't be in the mood to do it once it all comes crashing down. That Fulham vs Manchester City game kicks off in about six hours. Meaning my season could effectively be over before the 3 o'clock kick offs even begin.
Before we look at my team though, let's re-cap, and find out how we got into this desperate state.
Lately..
My last post was just before Double Gameweek 34. I went into that one feeling confident, but with no Crystal Palace players. It was very much a week of two halves. After the first round of games I'd dropped from 60k to 110k. However, I then clawed all that back, plus a bit more, thanks to a Foden brace, a Semenyo goal and Branthwaite coming off my bench with 20 points. So amazingly I ended the week at 52k.
It was very much the Undertaker meme.
However, in weeks 35 and 36 it's been steady decline. Not quite buried in the coffin, but definitely getting there. It certainly feels more "I Know It's Over" by the Smiths than Wrestlemania at the moment.
GW35 was the mini double, and I went into that just with Palmer. So though I didn't do too badly overall (59 points), I was always going to lose ground on people with multiple doublers. Then GW36 was equally "decent, but not enough" (94 points). I didn't have Jackson (that was a pretty big dividend for people that brought him in solely with the double in mind), and I captained Saka over Haaland 😖 - which cost me 11 points.
So now I'm sitting at 82k with two weeks left. In a situation where about 85% of people in the top 100k will be bench boosting. Plus, I'm about 50 points behind the guy who's top in my mini league.
So..
How My Team Is Looking Without Haaland
My thinking is differential. De Bruyne and Callum Wilson in - Wilson captain ! ..and no Haaland.
The plan is also to do Gordon to Salah next week as one final dice roll, if I somehow survive this week. Before my early morning deliberations I did have Haaland in, and Son was absent. However, I really want Son, especially for that last game against Sheffield United, so I thought, "Okay, you're not going to captain Haaland, let's just go all in against him."
Of course, I've still got to sit around waiting for early team news, which is frustrating. I'd like to just hit 'save your team' and stop thinking about it. It's always a little annoying to write one of these blog posts only to change your mind again before deadline.
I sound a little miserable, but I'm actually enjoying the season. I do love getting the opportunity to go against the herd. It's more just the anticipation. I'm one of these people that just switches off if I have a bad gameweek, so I know the weekend (and season) could be over pretty quickly for me.
Template 'til Christmas
I've actually already started thinking about next season. My plan is to do my "Template 'til Christmas" experiment. As I've mentioned on this blog before, usually I start the season badly then come on strong in the second half, so I really like the idea of seeing how my season would go if I just followed the template like other people tend to do. Only to jettison it once things begin to naturally diverge over the Christmas period. Though saying this, this season hasn't really followed that pattern. I had a decent start this year, but have been treading water these last two or three months. Although you could say it was my unorthodox use of the bench boost in the first half of the season that's left me bench-boost-less now, and out of kilter with the chips.
Also, it's worth adding that the variance with the chips has been incredible this season. Free Hitting in the big blank saw every single player blank, whereas Free Hitting in the double was off the charts. Mateta getting 29 points alone was crazy. Hopefully the bad memories of this season will put people off using it in the blank next season.
Also, if I do my "Template 'til Christmas" plan, I'll have to figure out how to decide what the template actually is each week, and how I track the changes. That might require some thought. It may not be as obvious as it at first appears. There's definitely a psychological aspect, so I'll have to try to stop my own biases slipping in.
Another issue is the AI. I wonder if the various AIs are actually making the template worse. Before it was the "wisdom of the crowd," but now that collective opinion is skewed somewhat by appeals to algorithm. I suspect the AIs aren't quite good enough yet to be better than people en masse. After all, they're only as good as their inputs, and they're not literally watching the games and reading between the lines of press conference statements.
I'd really like to see some deep dives on the AI. How do they work? What are they picking up and not picking up? How successful have they been? I think people are a little too in awe to be truly sceptical though. It's one thing thinking you know better than an fpl content maker, it's another having the arrogance to think you can outsmart a calculator.
It'll be interesting to see if AI completely conquers the game, or if just remains as a tool that can be used with caveats.
Anyway, let's get on with GW37. At least with Haaland completely out my side I won't be sat watching him play with mixed feelings. The Callum Wilson captaincy feels pretty reckless, but it definitely feels fun too. ..Easy to say that now though.
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