GW16 Went Badly !

I'm saying badly, it actually wasn't that bad, given some of the badness.

44 points (avg. 47)

Two players sent off. Yes, I brought in Robertson for Gabriel. So that was a 12 point swing! 😬 Ouch.

I'm really having quite a bad season. Perhaps my worst. It certainly feels like the worst by a long way.

As things stand, I haven't really digested the decisions. Seeing the two reds when I finished my shift at work made me not bother watching the highlights, lol. So I'm not even sure how lucky/unlucky these misfortunes were. Obviously, removing Gabriel was a big mistake in hindsight, and could punish me further going forwards.

Luckily, Robertson won't miss the next game as he'll be suspended for the Carabao Cup tie midweek. Aït-Nouri does miss out though, and there's little reason to keep him given the fixtures, so he'll be this week's transfer out. Robinson seems the natural replacement, so I might just make that straight swap. It feels a little boring because he's been so well-owned this season, but it's hard to argue against it.

I also have a decision to make as to whether to play Morgan Rogers at home to City or Armstrong away to Fulham. With Man City struggling of late I'm tempted to just stick with Rogers, but seeing that on the screen just doesn't look right. It's still Man City, after all. I think it's one of those calls where I have to sit back and listen to what my gut tells me.

It doesn't help that I've watched so little football recently. This season really has become something of an anomaly. I can't imagine there's too much content being made by people as uninvested as I've been this season. This is very much a casuals blog at the moment.

My rank is currently just inside the two million mark. I really do need to make that assistant manager chip count!

Bench Fixing in the Storm

Here we are, in the middle of GW15 - still everything to play for. Obviously, the Liverpool game was called off, so we're a Salah short. I took the opportunity to take a minus 4 to improve my bench. I removed Pickford and the long term absentee Ross Stewart, and brought in Adam Armstrong and Chelsea's Jørgensen. I have no idea if Jørgensen will continue in goal for Chelsea, but I've also got Fabianski, who seems to have the No.1 spot at West Ham now, so it seemed worth a punt.

As things stand the minus 4 hasn't paid off. Armstrong picked up just the two points. However, I would've had the non-starting Faes off the bench (Gabriel isn't starting, so Van den Berg will also be coming off my bench with zero points), so I'm just two points down - assuming Faes does get a zero. Meaning I've spent two points to fix my bench going forward. Given how bad my bench has been this week, and the fact that we have the busy Christmas period to deal with, I think this should be a net gain overall.

The Last Two Gameweeks

Both were mildly above average.

GW13:

73 points (avg. 60)

GW14:

64 points (avg. 58)

Overall

Overall I'm fairly happy with my team. I feel the defence is a bit uninspired and lacklustre though. With the Aït-Nouri pick I was basically just copying the crowd. It was a sensible and logical choice, but I can't help but feel I've missed an opportunity to go more with a gut instinct pick. Interestingly - and somewhat miraculously - Wan-Bissaka has scored two goals in the five gameweeks since I sold him. I genuinely think he's a good player, so I liked owning him in that sense. Aït-Nouri still has a few decent fixtures to go though, so he could still blossom.

If Gabriel remains out that presents an opportunity to do something different next week. So we'll see where we are with that next gameweek.

Oh, and I have Saka captain this week in the absence of Salah. So this gameweek will probably largely depend on that. The Arsenal game has literally just kicked off, so we're in the crucible. Hopefully he gets something 🤞

GW13: On the Climb

GW12 was pretty decent. Salah captain being the big plus. Not having Saka being the major minus. It moved me up from circa 1.8m to around 1.5m. Still an awful rank, but at least I'm climbing.

GW12: 63 points - avg. 49

This week I can finally move out Calvert-Lewin. I can't bring in Cunha, as that would block me from bringing in Saka next week, so Joao Pedro is the natural option.

I'm quite happy with the team. Having Joao Pedro also gives me a bit of interest in tonight's Friday fixture. So all good.

MINUS 4 PAY$ OFF

Going into GW11 I took a minus 4. I actually did it very early - literally as GW10 ended.

Haaland and Dibling OUT. Salah and Jackson IN.

In some ways I'd already pushed myself towards it writing that last post. (It's incredible how the process of writing can help you work through your own thinking.)  It just seemed to make sense. The fixture wasn't good for Jackson, but it just made the team feel so much better. Luckily having Salah captain made all the difference.

62 (-4) points. Avg. 49

Not a blistering week, but pretty decent. A bit of a green arrow up to 1,849,110. 

Now, with my team structure fairly set, it should just be a case of tinkering from here on in. Foden to Saka perhaps. Calvert-Lewin to Cunha or Wissa. Bruno Fernandes in??

There are so many options at the moment.

I still like Madueke for the Chelsea fixtures. Isak is doing well. Evanilson at Bournemouth. Semenyo too. I have just enough money in the bank to do Calvert-Lewin to Havertz as well, which I'm not really feeling, but looks nice on paper as it covers Arsenal's attack and allows me to leave the Saka spot for Foden/Fernandes/some other expensive mid.

Again, so many options.

Also, it's worth noting how lucky I've been with the keeper situation. Pickford has been great since I brought him in, and now Fabianski seems to be first choice for West Ham too. If that continues it'll be ideal, as Everton's fixtures are dreadful GW15-18. So Fabianski gives perfect cover.

Anyway, I'll leave it there for now.

Between Halloween and Bonfire Night: GW10 - Gwan-Bissaka

Last gameweek it was gwan Bissaka, as in 'Go On!' Bissaka.

This gameweek it's gwan Bissaka, as in 'Go Away.'

I played him ahead of Gabriel last week, and that gained me an extra point - which I'm very grateful for. However, on the eve of GW10 I've taken him out, bringing in Aït-Nouri, another hyphenated Premier League superstar. It feels a little unfair, but it's all part of a plan..

GW9 Points

58 points (avg. 54)

I dropped by about 100k to around 1.6m. It felt mediocre, but given some people were using their triple captain, I don't feel it was too bad a week all in all. It was a week that highlighted problems with my team though.

Problems..

The first obvious negative is that I don't have Salah or Saka. You could probably add Alexander-Arnold to that list too. I wouldn't really describe this as a 'mistake' type problem though, as you just can't have all these high end players. So I don't have any feelings of self-criticism.

What I do need to criticise myself for, however, is the amount of weak spots in my team. Normally I like to have players with genuine potential in every position. That is definitely not the case here, alas. When I wildcarded a few weeks back I was so focused on getting Palmer, Haaland and (at the time) Salah I neglected this normal mode of playing. (Again, this season - with me trying to 'copy the template' and not having a real interest at the start - has threw me off a bit. Now I finally feel like I'm starting to sharpen up.)

My original plan this week was to continue focusing on the big hitters. I was going to downgrade either Gvardiol or Gabriel (both are currently yellow-flagged) to Aït-Nouri. That would've freed up the extra cash needed to upgrade the Foden spot to Salah at some point in the future. However, refocusing my attention on the overall team has changed that plan. Hence the switch of Wan-Bissaka out. A clear upgrade, instead of a sideways move. It does mean I'm hoping (or rather, wishful thinking) that both Gabriel and Gvardiol will either start tomorrow or not come off the bench.

How I'm looking.

I would've been playing Faes anyway had I have went with the other plan, so this at least offers the potential for more upside. I'm also hedging my bets with Gvardiol and Gabriel.

GOING FORWARD.

Going forward my plan is to change Foden to Saka, (in GW12 hopefully), and to perhaps upgrade the benched Stewart to Wissa next week. Although I'm also considering switching Dibling to Madueke (I like the idea of having an extra Chelsea player, but not next week when they face Arsenal).

So basically, I've decided I'm going to stick with Haaland and not have Salah for the foreseeable future. Go Haaland, Saka and Palmer. Then just focus on upgrading the weak spots.

 - Having to play one of Faes/Van den Berg/Wan-Bissaka was an obvious weak spot.

 - Dibling is a fairly weak first eleven player.

 - Finally, Calvert-Lewin hasn't been great, but at least there is some realistic potential of returns there.

So that's the general outline of a plan.

Ideally I think I'd like to roll the transfer next week, but Rogers facing Liverpool away and Dibling not getting full minutes could force my hand. Dibling is such a great enabler at that price. If I kept playing him ( - even if he plays the fixtures are awful it must be said), I could do Foden to Saka and still have the cash left to do Calvert-Lewin to Nicolas Jackson (I really would love that extra Chelsea attacker. So far this season they've only lost against City and Liverpool - so against lesser teams they've been very effective. After Arsenal that fixture run is great 😍).

Maybe I could just play one of the weak cheap defenders after all ??

Incidentally, if I was wildcarding now I'd most certainly be going Salah over Haaland. That extra cash would solve so many of these problems. So I should really start considering that possibility myself. GW13 - where City play Liverpool - could be a good week to pivot off Haaland to bring in Salah the week after.

Upgrading Dibling to Salah and downgrading Haaland to Jackson does look very appealing!

Definitely lots of thinking to do as we enjoy the weekend's fixtures :)

GW9: Slowly, Slowly..

I'm slowly worming my way into the season. My last post was just a picture of my wildcard team. Since then we've had two gameweeks.

GW7 brought me 47 points (1 above the average), which gained me a tiny, tiny green arrow.

GW8 brought me 49 points (the average was a lowly 36), so I did quite nicely.

I'm now up to 1,512,457, so I'm heading in the right direction.

Last week's transfer was Palmer to Foden. That netted me 2 points, thanks to Foden's off-the-bench assist. This week I'm planning to bring Palmer back in, this time for Salah, who faces Arsenal.

This is how I'm looking:

I'm not sure about the benching of Gabriel for Wan-Bissaka. It doesn't feel too wise, but I'm going with my instinct. In fact, the whole backline doesn't look wholly inspiring, though they do all have home games and decent fixtures.

After this week I'm not really sure what my plans are. I'm kinda just playing by ear at this point. I'm definitely getting the enjoyment back, after my attempts to 'follow the template,' that's for sure.

GW7: Wildcard Active

Classic 4-4-2 Formation.

Abandon All Plans !

Very quick update. The plan to "follow the template" until Christmas has completely gone out of the window. I just haven't been following fpl well enough to even know what the template is. It's been very hard to get invested in fpl when I haven't been picking my own players and doing things my own way.

In hindsight it might have been a good time to trial another "Gamemonth Management" season, but I've missed that boat too.

So now, I'm just going to play it my way :)

I'm going to wildcard tonight, pick my own team, and hopefully start enjoying things and paying attention.

My current rank is 2,187,602. Nothing I haven't seen before at this stage of the season. Meaning I can just crack on and aim for a decent rank.

Hopefully my posts will be a bit more frequent from here on in.

GW2/3 - It's So Hard To Follow The Template

This following the template lark is hard. Firstly, I'm a little disappointed, as I think I've ruined the whole experiment by not nailing the template properly, and also by not keeping on top of things these first few weeks. The Template is one of those things you kind of just know - you know it when you see it. However, to know it you need to be plugged in to what's going on in FPL. As I wasn't paying attention to what was going on in the weeks preceding GW1 I just didn't have a clue. It was lazy of me.

I think Saka is definitely template. Now I've started paying attention I see him in pretty much every team. It's not surprising given his nice price relative to other options. Again, something I would've known instinctively had I been paying attention.

Since the start I've tried to follow the template with my transfers too. I've been too lacklustre and slow off the mark though, meaning I've missed quite a few price changes. (One of the benefits of 'following the template' is you get those bandwagon/herd mentality point ones. So this is another example of my laziness spoiling my little experiment.)

MOVES

Last week, when Solanke got injured, I had a decision to make in regard cheap forward options. The template move was to go with Muniz. My instinctive desire was to go with Southampton's Adam Armstrong - mainly to save £0.5m. I went with the template choice, of course - true to my plan. It was quite a good illustration of the type of difference in decision making I was expecting. It felt so wrong going against my instincts. I didn't like doing it, but even though I haven't quite nailed the template start I'm determined to stick with it.

This week I've made two transfers. I've actually took a (-4). Another thing I would normally never be doing this early in the season. I downgraded Nkunku to Rogers, and I upgraded Gordon to Saka.

So now I am looking very template. The only other clear template player I don't own is Fulham's Robinson.

GW2 Score

72 points (avg. 69)

As you can see, I benched Gordon's 10 pointer. This was another 'chasing the template' mistake. Had I been playing my normal game I'd have never benched Gordon in a million years. However, I was watching fpl content and so many people were sticking with Nkunku for another game. Likewise, there was the usual talk of Gordon being poor away from home. So I was thinking, "What would a template manager do?", and stuck Nkunku in. This was a mistake, and not because it cost me points, but because the logic was faulty. Just because I'm following the template doesn't mean I should make daft decisions in regard my own specific team. Gordon was always more likely to play than Nkunku. So that was an error in judgement in more than one way.

My current rank is now 3,773,406. So not a great start. Now I've taken a (-4) that'll be a further dent. It's still early days though, 

GW1: Template Let's Go

So, I had my first template week. This is the team I ended up going with. I saw it on a Let's Talk FPL video; where someone had put together the average affordable Twitter team.

59 points (avg. 57 - very template)

I think this is probably a good approximate of the template, as it was going into that first week. I've seen a few teams with Saka. So that's the one player I feel could be missing. Though that might be more my feeling that he should be in there, as I'd have no doubt had him in there if I was playing normally.

It was a weird first week. As I'd just copied (or tried to copy) the template I didn't feel any emotional investment in the team whatsoever. So it kind of passed me by. Now it's a question of how I continue to follow 'the template' over the next few months. Clearly, different people will now be making different moves, so unless there's an obvious bandwagon, it isn't entirely apparent what I should do.

At the moment my plan is just to roll the transfer. It might be easier to keep to the template with two frees next week.

I've also been thinking that I don't need to be entirely strict now that first week is out of the way. I just need to be mindful of broadly where the template is and not stray too far. So that means sticking with the template formation. Making sure I have the players that almost everyone in the "fpl community" has. Going with the template captain. If I have minor problems that need fixing, or there are marginal decisions about bench players, etc, I can still use that leeway to make my own choices.

The most transferred player in so far this week is Mazraoui. I don't know if that's an fpl thing or more a Man Utd thing at the moment, but with Porro flagged I'll keep an eye on that going into tomorrow.

I am starting to feel it a bit more now as well - that enjoyment is coming back. So hopefully I continue to grow into the season.

FPL 24/25: Template 'til Xmas

It's been a while. In truth, I'm still not in the mood for Fantasy Premier League. We had the Euros, which gave me my fill of summer football. Plus, we've had riots and God knows what else pulling my attention. So I've been a bit distracted.

At the end of last season my plan was to "Copy the Template until Christmas" this season - a little experiment I've been wanting to do for a while. This is still my plan, though the rule changes that were announced almost shifted me away from that. A few seasons ago I played FPL monthly - which I enjoyed. One of the big downsides with playing that way was that it meant burning a lot of transfers. Now we can save up to five that problem has been alleviated. Almost perfectly so. So, my first thought was, "Oh, I can try another season playing monthly." Perhaps had I been more switched on to football this preseason I might have went down that route, but my lack of interest has forced me to stick with the plan.

I haven't followed any FPL content at all over the last month or so. Today was the first time I attempted to watch a few videos. (Again, I'm not in the mood for it. I'm just not really feeling it.) It should be easy. After all, at the moment I'm just going to copy the template. However, it isn't that easy to find out what the template is exactly. At least with any precision. As it's not simply the most owned players overall, it's the collective wisdom of the 'FPL community.' I need to filter out the casual noise and get a sense of what the movers and shakers are doing.

We know the template when we see it (at least I would if I'd been paying attention this year), but at the same time it's a bit fluid and amorphous. Anyway, at the moment this is what I've got:

I'm not sure this is right, but I think it's in the general ballpark - no pun intended. Also, it's been so hard putting my own instincts to one side. If it's a 50/50 call, where there's tinkering around the edges, how do I exclude my own bias? It's not so easy. I've seen many teams with Flekken as the £4.5m keeper, but I've stuck with Henderson as that's what I tended to see at first.

Also, I'm in work tomorrow and Friday. So I won't be able to observe the onset of the Friday evening deadline. Hopefully, I can catch some more content tomorrow evening and get a better handle on things. I'm sounding like a bit of a Sad Sack, but I think the season has just came a few weeks too early for me. In some ways it's quite fitting. I don't really need to be too invested if I'm just going to be a copycat for the first three months.

I do need to get the start correct though. If I don't go into GW1 with a very template team it defeats the entire purpose of the experiment. So I must get my act together.

I don't even have a team name at the moment 😬

End of Season: Final Rank

It's the end of the season, I almost forgot. Most people post their final rank online on the final day, I'm, as ever, a week late.

It was actually an eventful last couple of gameweeks.

In GW37 I got very lucky, or unlucky, depending on view. I captained Wilson, which was obviously something of a desperate gamble. He missed both games. Meaning Foden came in as my vice captain, with 11 points. I think it was definitely more good luck than bad.

I finished up with 117 points, which was fairly decent, though I still dropped around 20k. Owing to the fact that most others were bench boosting, and the fact that I went against Haaland, who outscored Foden with 15 points.

GW37: 117 points (avg. 83)

Then, however, in GW38, going Foden over Haaland paid off. This was a pretty big week for me - 98 points! The Chris Wood differential working out nicely, with my planned transfer Salah getting a small, but useful 6 points.

GW38: 98 points (avg. 52)

So I ended up with a final rank of 52,925 - which I was very happy with given that I finished GW37 at the 99k mark.

By GW27 I'd climbed up to 32k, so my season definitely tailed off towards the end, but still, overall, 53k is pretty decent (my second highest rank).

Next Season

Next season I'm definitely going to try out the "Template 'til Christmas" experiment, so that should be fun. I like to switch off over the summer though, so I'll come back when we're much closer to the start.

Wildcard Delirium - GW37

It's literally 6 o'clock in the morning. I'm never up this early, but the sudden onset of warm weather has made it difficult to sleep. So now I'm tired, but wide awake. I've did some final tinkering to my GW37 wildcard in this semi-delirium ..removing Haaland to bring in Son. 

Yes, I'm gambling. So I better post my team now, otherwise I won't be in the mood to do it once it all comes crashing down. That Fulham vs Manchester City game kicks off in about six hours. Meaning my season could effectively be over before the 3 o'clock kick offs even begin.

Before we look at my team though, let's re-cap, and find out how we got into this desperate state.

Lately..

My last post was just before Double Gameweek 34. I went into that one feeling confident, but with no Crystal Palace players. It was very much a week of two halves. After the first round of games I'd dropped from 60k to 110k. However, I then clawed all that back, plus a bit more, thanks to a Foden brace, a Semenyo goal and Branthwaite coming off my bench with 20 points. So amazingly I ended the week at 52k.

It was very much the Undertaker meme.

However, in weeks 35 and 36 it's been steady decline. Not quite buried in the coffin, but definitely getting there. It certainly feels more "I Know It's Over" by the Smiths than Wrestlemania at the moment.

GW35 was the mini double, and I went into that just with Palmer. So though I didn't do too badly overall (59 points), I was always going to lose ground on people with multiple doublers. Then GW36 was equally "decent, but not enough" (94 points). I didn't have Jackson (that was a pretty big dividend for people that brought him in solely with the double in mind), and I captained Saka over Haaland 😖 - which cost me 11 points.

So now I'm sitting at 82k with two weeks left. In a situation where about 85% of people in the top 100k will be bench boosting. Plus, I'm about 50 points behind the guy who's top in my mini league.

So..

How My Team Is Looking Without Haaland

My thinking is differential. De Bruyne and Callum Wilson in - Wilson captain ! ..and no Haaland.

The plan is also to do Gordon to Salah next week as one final dice roll, if I somehow survive this week. Before my early morning deliberations I did have Haaland in, and Son was absent. However, I really want Son, especially for that last game against Sheffield United, so I thought, "Okay, you're not going to captain Haaland, let's just go all in against him."

Of course, I've still got to sit around waiting for early team news, which is frustrating. I'd like to just hit 'save your team' and stop thinking about it. It's always a little annoying to write one of these blog posts only to change your mind again before deadline.

I sound a little miserable, but I'm actually enjoying the season. I do love getting the opportunity to go against the herd. It's more just the anticipation. I'm one of these people that just switches off if I have a bad gameweek, so I know the weekend (and season) could be over pretty quickly for me.

Template 'til Christmas

I've actually already started thinking about next season. My plan is to do my "Template 'til Christmas" experiment. As I've mentioned on this blog before, usually I start the season badly then come on strong in the second half, so I really like the idea of seeing how my season would go if I just followed the template like other people tend to do. Only to jettison it once things begin to naturally diverge over the Christmas period. Though saying this, this season hasn't really followed that pattern. I had a decent start this year, but have been treading water these last two or three months. Although you could say it was my unorthodox use of the bench boost in the first half of the season that's left me bench-boost-less now, and out of kilter with the chips.

Also, it's worth adding that the variance with the chips has been incredible this season. Free Hitting in the big blank saw every single player blank, whereas Free Hitting in the double was off the charts. Mateta getting 29 points alone was crazy. Hopefully the bad memories of this season will put people off using it in the blank next season.

Also, if I do my "Template 'til Christmas" plan, I'll have to figure out how to decide what the template actually is each week, and how I track the changes. That might require some thought. It may not be as obvious as it at first appears. There's definitely a psychological aspect, so I'll have to try to stop my own biases slipping in.

Another issue is the AI. I wonder if the various AIs are actually making the template worse. Before it was the "wisdom of the crowd," but now that collective opinion is skewed somewhat by appeals to algorithm. I suspect the AIs aren't quite good enough yet to be better than people en masse. After all, they're only as good as their inputs, and they're not literally watching the games and reading between the lines of press conference statements.

I'd really like to see some deep dives on the AI. How do they work? What are they picking up and not picking up? How successful have they been? I think people are a little too in awe to be truly sceptical though. It's one thing thinking you know better than an fpl content maker, it's another having the arrogance to think you can outsmart a calculator.

It'll be interesting to see if AI completely conquers the game, or if just remains as a tool that can be used with caveats.

Anyway, let's get on with GW37. At least with Haaland completely out my side I won't be sat watching him play with mixed feelings. The Callum Wilson captaincy feels pretty reckless, but it definitely feels fun too. ..Easy to say that now though.

Double Gameweek 34 - A Few Differentials

As per usual this season, it's been a while since I last posted. That was way back on the cusp of Free Hit GW29 -- which didn't exactly go well: 19 points (average was 12). Every single player blanked, though I did get a tiny green arrow from it.

We're now on the cusp of Double GW34.

In between we've had:

GW30: 50 points (avg. 47)

GW31: 64 points (avg. 46)

GW32: 60 points (avg. 56)

GW33: 74 points (avg. 58)

It's not been great. I've dropped from around 38k to 60k.

It feels like I'm treading water, so could do with a bit of luck and magic as we head into this final run-in.

My Double Team

I'm actually quite happy with this team. I've managed to get a team of doublers without chips or hits. It also has a few differentials.

Semenyo and Mac Allister are players that could do well that are fairly low owned. Obviously there are big minutes worries with Semenyo, especially with him being out recently (his red flag only lifted yesterday). However, he's a player I always really like the look of when I see Bournemouth play. I like having players that are genuine eye test picks, it makes things much more enjoyable. I probably would've had him earlier given his price, were it not for the unavoidable Solanke/Watkins/Haaland front three.

I brought him in for Watkins in GW31, with this double in mind, so I was disappointed to see him absent through injury/flu last week. Hopefully he's coming back at the perfect time.

I also like having Foden. Obviously, it's just the one game, and there's the danger he gets benched for it, but the upside is so nice. It also fits with my plan going forward, which is to use my wildcard in GW37. Essentially as a Free Hit (though with one eye on GW38).

Next week is also a mini-double, with Chelsea and Spurs having two fixtures. I already have Gusto and Palmer. It's possible I could also bring in Nicolas Jackson for Solanke, though it's much more likely I'd be doing Mac Allister to Gordon with my free transfer.

I won't be bringing any Spurs players in. I don't really like the fixtures, so I'm hoping having a 'steady as she goes' team for GW35 & 36 works out as a differential against people that are wildcarding in GW35. Not having Son will be a big concern. Likewise not having Isak could continue to damage me, as it has recently. It's sink or swim now though. Either I get a bit of luck and push on, or my season just fizzles out.

I'm enjoying going against the grain at the moment, but I might not be too keen on fpl for the remainder of the season if things go against me.

Free Hit GW29: No James Maddison

It's been a while since I relayed my gameweek scores, so I'll quickly run through them:

GW21: 54 points (-4)         (avg. 47)

GW22: 62 points                (avg. 48)
GW23: 74 points                (avg. 57)

GW24: 82 points                (avg. 62)

GW25: 92 points                (avg. 73)        (*triple captained Haaland - 30 points)

GW26: 53 points                (avg. 46)

GW27: 85 points                (avg. 63)
GW28: 53 points                (avg. 44)

My current rank is: 39,455

Gameweek TWENTY NINE.

Needless to say, after my last post, I will be free hitting this week. My team currently looks like this:

I may make some changes tonight/tomorrow morning. Though as I'm working tomorrow I'll miss the build up to the deadline, so it should be settled before my head hits the pillow tonight.

The big omission is Maddison. This is clearly a risk, especially with him being so highly owned by others. However, I feel it's a fairly pleasant differential.

The decision to choose two Spurs defenders instead of two mids was initially an instinctive one. Having thought about it I feel it makes sense from a logical point of view too though. I like having players with attacking potential in all positions. So when it came to choosing defenders this week Porro, Udogie and Doughty all naturally stood out. Given the dearth of games alternatives aren't too obvious. Whereas with Maddison, though he's obviously a great pick, and someone I would've chosen just as instinctively when looking at midfielders, there are players in midfield that can potentially match him.

Douglas Luiz, Elanga, Kudus, Bailey. All could potentially match him in any given gameweek. In fact, my big worry is going with the wrong alternative. Luiz could've very easily been in this side.

Of course, Maddison is still the better pick, and the danger is he gets double digits. That would probably do some real rank damage. The flip side offers a lot of upside though, and if he gets the odd assist or goal I can live with it if my guys deliver.

It also makes things a tad more exciting.

Free Hit Psychology

Firstly, a caveat: this is just my personal opinion. People that delve in the mathematics of fpl deeper may know better. So what follows is just my modus operandi. Perhaps my thinking may be helpful or interesting to others, but do take it with a pinch of salt.

Anyhow, my feeling is that there is a heavy psychological bias against free hitting in blank gameweeks, which presents an opportunity for those that go that route.

In comparison to free hitting in a double, free hitting in a blank feels incredibly boring, as there are only a handful of games - and those games tend to be uninspiring. The bigger teams and big name players being absent.

On top of this, it also feels like you're not getting much extra by using the free hit. You might be able to get 8, 9, even 10 players for the blank by managing your transfers. With a (-4) hit or two, perhaps even a full eleven. Including an optimal captain. So, the feeling is, why waste the chip. Especially if you can save it for a double gameweek, where you can potentially select eleven very good players, each with two games.

So, using it in a double gameweek is much more fun and exciting. The ceiling that week if it pays off obviously much higher too.

But..

Here are the upsides to using it for the blank:

1) You don't have to wreck your team planning for the blank. By free hitting you can just continue sailing along peacefully with your team. Choosing the players you genuinely want, rather than restricting yourself to players that get a game in the blank. Essentially you can just ignore the blank if you're free hitting.

2) You have an optimal team for the blank gameweek, when most other managers won't have that. Especially if the popular move is to free hit later. Meaning eleven players that each have real potential to return, when most managers have to make-do and mend with players that would normally only be bench options.

3) You have a bench (and a decent vice captain). Usually we don't have to delve into the bench, but there's always the possibility of a benching or an injury. So if a key player does go missing, by having a good first bench option, you're instantly up on most other managers.

4) A bit of a continuation of that last one - you have eleven players. Not especially exciting, but many people going into that week will not.

5) This is my personal favourite. Hits feel like a (-2) for managers that don't free hit, but for you those hits are still a (-4).

 ..if a manager isn't free hitting the temptation to take a (-4) is enhanced in a blank, as the player they're bringing in will almost certainly get 2 points just for playing. Which is 2 points more than having no player. So it makes sense to bring in a player as you only lose 2 points if they blank (as opposed to a normal week - where you'd lose the (-4) along with whatever extra points the player you were taking out would've earned).

However, from your point of view, as a free hitter, those managers are still spending 4 points. Meaning you're instantly up 4 points on every manager that buys one transfer; 8 points up on everyone buying two; 12 points on those buying three. That's before the first game even kicks off.

So..

..all in all, you have the extra hit points, the extra points for having more players fielded (even if it's just a few appearance points), the extra security of a bench, and you'll have some optimal differentials that can potentially score decent points that week.

It's the closest you get to having a week where you're guaranteed to outperform most other managers.

Free Hitting In A Double

Obviously, in counterpoint, the ceiling is much higher in a double. However, the outperformance isn't as guaranteed, as most people will still have a strong team for the double, as the players needed tend to be the players people want long term anyway (unlike in the blank). Also, the good single gameweek players people have will still have the potential to outscore or match the doublers. (We've seen this week how easily that can be the case.) Also, other chips can be used that week.

So, personally, I always enjoy free hitting in the big blank. It feels like such a simple solution to such an obvious problem, and the more people that choose to navigate it with hits because that doesn't excite them, the happier I feel about doing it.

Again though, this is just my way of thinking about things, and there may well be flaws in my thinking. Plus, as ever, no two teams, or two seasons, are ever the same. So the reality is, it's never really that simple anyway.

Into The Weeds

Another minus 4 this season. I've taken out Son and Trent Alexander-Arnold to bring in Saka and Estupinan. My original thinking, a week or so ago, was to take a minus 4 to bring in Saka/Foden and Haaland, but Haaland remaining out for the FA Cup tie quashed that idea. Either way though the decision to simply leave Salah on my bench has remained consistent.

I'll be going into GW21 with Salah benched and 10 million in the bank, so looking at things simply on a squad value level it doesn't look too good. You'd think having that much of the budget benched and unused would come at a heavy cost. However, instinctively I don't feel bad about it at all. The money allows me to easily get Haaland in should the opportunity arise, and keeping Salah feels like a fun gamble. It's unlikely Egypt will go out early, but if they do I get a massive dividend. Plus, I will want him back as soon as he is back. It's all well and good saying I'll take him out and put the money to one side to bring him back, but things rarely work out like that. Other issues inevitably crop up. So I'm just going to keep him.

With TAA it was a little different. A lot of people will no doubt keep him, which could prove sensible (of course, what's right and wrong always depends upon your own particular circumstances, so there's rarely a true right and wrong). Going into this run of games the one player I feared was Estupinan, so this gave me a nice excuse to bring him in. I also don't like holding injured players. I could've taken out Senesi instead, who is suspended this week, but the Bournemouth fixtures are okay and I need a decent squad if I'm going to carry a non-playing Salah.

This is how I'm looking for GW21. You'll see Saka is captain (I'm hoping he finally goes big just as I bring him in - it would be just my luck this season given the good luck I've had in other weeks). You'll also see a Brownhill in the starting eleven. This may look like madness alongside the decision to keep Salah ..that spot could easily be a Foden/Richarlison/etc. Even if Brownhill just gets his usual two points though it would mean I'd need a six point swing this week with the minus 4. So I'm actually quite happy to play him. It's another one of these fun little differentials that make the game interesting. Burnley vs Luton is the first game tomorrow night, so as I'm at work it'll give me a little surprise to look forward to at the end of my shift.

On top of this, if I find myself with a luxury transfer in the coming weeks I'll be able to switch Brownhill to Garnacho. So novel ways of managing Salah's absence abound.

I'm also really looking forward to the Newcastle vs Man City game this weekend (thankfully I'm off work on the Saturday), which could be a great game. Hopefully Gordon and Alvarez both do well ..and we see some De Bruyne and Haaland.

2024: The Perfect Start

Since my last post things have went pretty well. This week (GW20) looks to be a very minor red arrow, but prior to that it's been green all the way. I'll share the gameweeks below. (Excuse the endless flags as I've only just took the screenshots.)

68 points (-4) (avg. 40)

63 points (-4) (avg. 44)

 

57 points (avg. 36)

50 points (avg. 38)

85 points (avg. 59)

Trent came in this week for Trippier, not that it made much difference. I got lucky bringing in Solanke for the hat-trick.

I've kinda managed getting a good balance between copying others and making my own instinctive judgements. I was really pleased with the 5 points I got for Gordon this week. I very nearly started Senesi instead, but after some thought I realised it would've been far too kneejerk. Gordon (and Trippier) have both been great for me overall, so completely ditching both would be overkill. Especially given Gordon's price. I looked at the Liverpool and Man City fixtures and thought, "Actually, y'know what, playing Gordon in both isn't too bad at all really given his price. And if I get one return over the two games, which is possible, I'll be more than happy."

So with one in the bag already it feels quite good. Weirdly I felt better about that one assist than all of Salah's captaincy returns.

Going Forward

Now we have decisions to make with both Son and Salah off to tournaments and Haaland still missing in action. Fortunately we have a break before the next gameweek, so plenty of time to let things ferment.

I have some ideas, but nothing is set in stone yet. I'll do another post before the deadline hopefully to get into the weeds a bit. We're entering the planning stage with blanks and doubles creeping onto the horizon.

My current rank is: 37,310

My run from GW13 has been really good.

Hopefully I can keep the momentum going in 2024.