The Bench Boost remains active..

A quick update on the wildcard. Overall it went quite well. However, there was a touch of bad luck with Rodri getting sent off. That messed up my longer term plans a little. Though, saying that, I did get a bit of good luck too, as I took the red-carded Gusto out of my side. Not to mention Chilwell and Wan-Bissaka, who are now both injured. So, all in all, more good luck than bad in truth.

(75 points - the average was 68,

Rodri the main downside)

So, the planned Bench Boost.

Common sense says that it should have been cancelled. It was somewhat unwise to begin with, given the players that have doubles. With Newcastle looking imperious (it's not hard to imagine they'll do similar to Burnley), and flags all over the place, it should now most certainly be cancelled.

That's not what I'm doing though. The fun of playing it has overruled any fears and caution 😬

I've actually taken a minus 4.

(Hopefully Trafford and Al-Dakhil don't

end up in negative territory against Newcastle)

I've removed Rodri and Saka, to bring in Ward-Prowse and Gordon.

I switched Rodri to Ward-Prowse at the end of GW6 - I had just enough to make the move. The Rodri to Saka switch was literally made about half an hour ago. My original plan was to bring in Son for Saka in GW8, but the Rodri red card really messed up those plans, eating up both my free transfer and the 0.5m I hoped to reserve to make the move.

However, the option of bringing in Gordon for Saka, to then move Mbeumo to Son next week, really appealed to me (bringing in Mbeumo is the one wildcard choice I do regret a bit - I should've done a bit more homework). Either way the two moves would've meant a minus 4, either this week or next. So going early gets me ahead of the curve and also allows me to re-activate the bench boost.

It's a very risky bench boost, especially with players in the first eleven at risk of missing out, but I want to take the gamble. I'll enjoy my weekend more with the added chips on the table. Especially if Burnley don't do too badly against Newcastle. (I would've hated going into that midweek game with the players on the bench, knowing I could've went for it.)

And if it all backfires at least I'll go into GW8 with the players I want (assuming Son remains fit and so forth).

My current rank is 1,962,710, so I got a tiny uptick. It's not a great position to be in, but I'm feeling optimistic. Foolishly.

Wildcard Time

Great week to wildcard. I think I've picked a good opportunity.

My GW5, like many people's, was pretty woeful. 36 points in the end, with the average being 44.

With that luxury transfer I brought in Jimenez for Wissa. It seemed like a fun one week punt, what with Fulham being home to Luton. It didn't come good, however, I got one more point than I would've got with Wissa, so it didn't hurt me.

Wildcard

 

My plan is to bench boost in GW7. The bench I'll have for that isn't very exciting. I currently don't even have an attacker from Burnley or Luton. I don't want to sacrifice my main team for the bench boost though, so I'm just going sheer numbers.

Three 4.0m defenders.

Both keepers.

So I'll have five players with two games, though all with low potential.

Obviously, the three cheap defenders will mean one has to be in my starting eleven. I have 0.5m in the bank though. Plus, once the double is out the way I'll be able to downgrade both keepers to free up cash. One to Areola, one to a 4.0m. So I should be able to upgrade that position in time.

My plan is to roll the transfer in GW7 and then bring in Son for Saka in GW8. I'll downgrade a keeper then with the other transfer if I need an extra 0.1m to do that. These plans rarely come to fruition how you hope though, so that's pencilled in rather than inked in.

As for the team..

I really felt like I needed Salah. The expense is annoying, but he's so consistent, and there's always that likelihood that he will go big. I'd like to have players like Chilwell and Fernandes in there for the potential, but in the end I can't sacrifice certainty for potential. So it's one less expensive midfielder and defender to get Salah.

I want to keep Estupinan. Potentially he could change before the deadline, but he's so attacking I just instinctively feel I need to have him in there.

I think Maddison and Mbeumo explain themselves. (Mbeumo could easily become Diaby if Brentford look like they're dropping off.)

The issue of Champions League worries me a little with Trippier, but other than that he seems like the obvious Newcastle pick. The wider question for me is do I double up in defence on Newcastle. It feels foolish chasing clean sheets this season, however with Newcastle I get the sense that they can keep teams out.

Then finally we get to the three Manchester City options. Or rather two, ignoring Haaland.

I think if you're wildcarding you have to go with Alvarez. Sure, there's always that rotation concern, but he's flying, as are City. (Any thoughts of getting Clinton Morris in for my bench boost have completely gone out the window. The two City, plus the cheap playing Archer as a bench option, is just too simple and sensible to ignore.)

The more interesting pick is Rodri. Originally I had Ward-Prowse in there as my cheaper fifth mid - who I think is a great price and pick. When I watched City in the Champions League last night though it just reanimated my interest in Rodri. He seems to have picked up the Gundogan role. The way City play, with so much of the ball, knocking it around on the edge of the box, means it's going to fall to him at times. As it did last night.

It would be stupid to expect big, or even consistent returns from him, but with City being the best team by a good yard it's hard not to like the idea of having a full compliment. Especially at these prices.

I'm happy to accept the rotation risk in general. It could ruin my bench boost though, which is the big fear. However, I'm really just seeing that bench boost as a bonus opportunity. Having five double gameweek players, when most people have one or none, *could* give me a nice advantage - if I'm lucky.

Either way, with the wildcard, I'm finally getting a team I feel instinctively good about.

Double Gameweek: Bench Boost Time

So, surprisingly, that Luton vs Burnley game has now been penned in for GW7 - meaning a double gameweek.

Burnley play Newcastle (A) and Luton (A)

Luton play Everton (A) and Burnley (H)

I haven't thought about things a great deal since the announcement, but still, I'm almost certain to now wildcard GW6 and bench boost in GW7. This doesn't seem especially popular, no doubt for very sensible reasons, however, the idea has appealed to me since the fixture was originally cancelled at the start of the season.

There are a few reasons why I like the idea..

Firstly, it gets it out of the way.

That doesn't sound like a compelling reason, but I always find the bench boost annoying as we move into the second half of the season. It completely ruins the natural flow for me. Uprooting your team just to bench boost in that one week - usually for sub par results. On top of that the need to have fifteen nailed on players that week to make sure it doesn't go to waste. It turns the sprint to the finish into the hundred meter hurdles.

In fact, this is one of my theories about fpl (I may have mentioned this on here before). I think the first half of the season favours people with more of a herd mentality, whereas the second half favours those that go it alone. I'm definitely the latter, so I tend to start badly (getting hammered by the template), then recover ground in the second half as the template dissolves.

It's a bit silly (from a logic point of view) to go against the template early on. After all, it's the sum total knowledge of the whole fpl community, including the very, very good managers with great track records (who naturally have a disproportionate, but deserved influence). Plus, these days: AI.

So, if you're someone that tends to follow the crowd, you can follow that template - effectively copy the general team the big fpl faces are going with - and get a fairly decent start relative to casual players that have no idea what the template is, and idiots like me, that see it, know it well, but still choose to avoid it.

Over time however the template breaks down. There'll still be a weekly template in essence, but it becomes impossible for everyone to follow it, as all those little differences over the course of the season accumulate. The different bench picks, the different team values, etc. So you can see the template (or other people's teams), but it's a struggle to get there. Plus, by this point all the really, really good managers - the big faces and talking heads - will also have teams that have diverged from each other, so if you are just copying other people you're faced with the dilemma of who to copy.

So at this point some people get lost in the sea of opinion. Perhaps taking hits, etc, just to get the player everyone's going for this particular week, instead of doing what's best for their own particular team, which by this point is naturally unique.

Contrariwise, if you're happy doing your own thing, it now gets easier, as you're just solely focused on piloting your own course. The template becomes irrelevant, as you can't reach it anyway.

I should really do a season where I follow the template for the first half, then use my own judgement from Christmas onwards, to see if I improve. Perhaps that can be my experiment for next year.

Secondly, and back to the point at hand..

..I can bench boost with a normal bench if I take this opportunity. It's not often we have so many cheap playing defenders. The fact that these defenders also have a double making it even more of a novelty. So potentially I can just have a bench of two 4.0m defenders, a cheapish attacker (probably Morris) and a cheap goalkeeper.

Meaning when I wildcard I can still have my choice first eleven, with Morris being a handy first-off-my-bench player going forward.

That I can have a cheap playing bench that's boostable is essentially something of a bonus. Born of circumstance.

The downsides..

The major obvious downside is that it's not a great week to wildcard. Son and Maddison in particular are players I want to bring in, however, they face Arsenal and Liverpool in GW6 & 7. I could bring them in and ride those weeks out, or I could just hope that I don't need the free transfer to fix anything in GW7, and then use the two frees to bring them in for GW8. It's always a bit risky planning transfers though.

One of the benefits of the wildcard is that you get a chance to fix minor problems, so I don't like the idea of wildcarding to then just allow new issues to go unsolved because of planned moves. So I imagine I'll bring at least one of those two players in for GW6. Again though, as at the start, I really haven't thought about the actual team all that much yet.

Wildcarding in GW6 will also mean I have a luxury transfer in GW5, and I don't even know what I'm doing with that yet either. It's fun though. At the moment I really don't feel like too many players are essential, so the entire wildcard feels like a luxury.

I'll end it there.

My current rank after GW4 is 1,364,935. Not brilliant, but I don't feel it's too bad as a starting point. It feels like the season's starting now.

The Rescue Blues

I feel I need to round off that last post by making note of Liverpool's late goal against Newcastle, with it finishing 2-1 to Liverpool's ten men. This week there's been some late drama as well, though more in regard my own team. Yesterday I didn't do particularly well, and aside from having Haaland captain (thank God) I didn't pick up too many points. Leaving me well below average. However, today things picked up a little, and my all Arsenal/Man Utd midfield bumped me up a bit.

So, still a poor-ish week, but potentially it could've been worse.

(75 points in all)

Last week I brought in Gusto and Wissa with my two free transfers. They didn't do much, but I was a point better off for the moves in the end, so I can't complain. Likewise I somehow managed to sneak a save point from Ederson. I lost the clean sheet again, but somehow that one point makes it feel like a minor win.

I still feel that we don't quite have the full picture on how the Premier League is shaping up just yet. Chelsea looked good last week (albeit against Luton), but poor this time out. My views on Newcastle have changed a little with another defeat on the bounce. Obviously Son and Maddison stand out massively now, but there are a few tricky fixtures on the horizon. A third City player would be handy too.

It's annoying we now have the international break. It seems a waste of time putting too much thought into things when so much can change in a few weeks. I'm set up fairly solidly for GW5, so I'm planning on a transfer roll.

I need to remind myself of last season's gamemonth management - relax, don't change things needlessly, have a little faith.

The Story So Far..

As I sit typing this Newcastle are currently 1-0 up against Liverpool. It's the tail end of GW3. I've had a thoroughly average week.

Three gameweeks in I'm feeling slightly "Meh" about my team. It hasn't been especially bad - my GW1 was fairly decent, however, weeks two and three have dropped off a bit. On top of this my team doesn't really feel like my team. I've been picking players partly on conservatism, rather than instinct. Largely trying to be sensible, and over-fixating on fixtures.

Anyway, I'll show my progress so far..

GW1: 83 points (Avg. 64)

GW2: 43 points (Avg. 44)

I used my free transfer to switch the injured Stones to Estupinan. This was a sensible move, and I was glad to correct the mistake. I was very lucky in GW1 to not get burned by Estupinan. He got seven points, but easily could've got seventeen. I was doubly lucky as Wan-Bissaka got a very jammy twelve.

GW3: 49 points (Avg. tbc)

(I rolled my transfer.)

Commentary

The Haaland perma-captain makes things a little boring. He's not exactly blowing it out the water so far this season, but he's still doing well enough that you'd feel foolish going against him.

If I'm honest though, I think it's Ederson losing his clean sheet today that has soured my mood. I should be grateful to have two clean sheets out of three from him, but in my mind I'd already pencilled in that third before the late goal.

I'm now in the strange situation where I'm not happy with my team, but at the same time I'm not sure who to bring in. I don't need to use the wildcard, but I think I should do an imaginary one to refresh my senses. Create an optimal team, then see if I can get closer to it with my two frees.

I'd really like to get on Newcastle assets ahead of the curve, but it's a little difficult. Upgrading Joao Pedro to Isak would be nice, but finding the cash could be a problem. I suspect Pedro will start the next Brighton game, so it might be better to hold fire there anyway. West Ham also play Luton in GW4, so switching a midfielder to Bowen or Ward-Prowse is tempting. However, that game is followed by games against Man City and Liverpool, so that would be brave.

..Now that I'm actually looking at my team and thinking about options going forward I'm starting to feel a little more optimistic. The obvious problem is that there are so many good midfield options it's difficult to know who to choose. The wildcard is very tempting, but I must resist. (I'm also wondering about when that Luton/Burnley game will be rearranged - Luton haven't looked great so far, so if the other Burnley fixture isn't too bad the 'Burnley Bench Boost' is a potentiality. So that's another thing.)

It's amazing how writing things down helps you work through your thoughts. I will definitely do an imaginary wildcard - it helps to work out which players I really, really want. Like a centrifuge. I need to start putting my imprint on things soon. Hopefully I can find my rhythm as the season kicks on.

(It's currently 1-1 in the Newcastle/Liverpool game; Darwin Nunez, five minutes to go.)

FPL: Belated Team Reveal

Ederson:

I haven't seen too many people with Ederson in their team, but he seemed like an easy pick for me. The Manchester City fixtures look great, he's nailed on to play, and 5.5m isn't too bad. Obviously, it's a little easier saying this on Saturday morning, after City got a clean sheet last night, but still, it feels like a sensible choice.

At the start of the season it's always difficult to judge what teams will be like. Which defences will be good, which will be bad, etc. City are the team you can be most confident with, and they have good fixtures, so I don't think there's a player in the league you could be more optimistic about when it comes to clean sheets, given the other City players get rotated.

Ederson's ceiling is low - I won't be getting many save points - but if I get 4 or 5 clean sheets out of him in these first 7 fixtures I'll be very happy.

Stones:

This follows on neatly from the last one. I was in work for the deadline, so I missed any team news, if there was any. It was only when I snuck out for my break that I realised I was a man down. It was always possible. Of course, I'd have preferred to have picked up the 6 points, but I don't mind too much. The drop down from expensive defender to cheaper bench defender isn't too steep. If it's a more expensive midfielder with a higher ceiling, and you're then reduced to a bench option that's quite a drop in potential. Here though I'm dropping from a hopeful clean sheet, to a much less likely clean sheet. So not too bad. The fact that it's an injury though, and not just random Pep rotation, could mean I'll have a transfer headache going forward.

For this week all hopes are on Tarkowski now.

Chilwell:

This one's fairly self-explanatory. Lots of attacking potential. Exciting to own.

Wan-Bissaka:

This one really is a differential. I'm not even confident he'll start, so it's a big gamble too.

I really rate Wan-Bissaka as a defender. I think he's got everything apart from the attacking output. Last season he got into good positions, but never had the confidence or composure. It's foolish expecting that to change, but he is still fairly young, so at some point it could just click. He's a cheap price (4.5m) and the United fixtures offer some potential for clean sheets, so I feel this is a nice opportunity to go against the grain.

In fact, the very last decision I made was whether to go with Estupinan and another 4.0m option, or with Wan-Bissaka and Tarkowski. The worry about Stones missing out was probably the deciding factor. It could backfire quite badly if Estupinan does well. My other line of thinking was again predicting how well the teams themselves will do. Brighton were great last season, but there are no guarantees. We saw last season how West Ham failed to deliver after looking excellent the season before (though they did win a trophy 🏆 ).

I'd be surprised if Man United finish in the bottom half, but would I be that surprised if Brighton finish there? - not really. It's similar with Brentford. The difference between top half and relegation fight is very small in the Premier League.

I'm playing with fire though going against the template, so we'll see where we are at the end of the weekend.

Rashford, Fernandes, Martinelli, Saka, Odegaard:

These ones are fairly self-explanatory too. All well-owned to varying degrees. The reason I've went heavy is mainly the fixtures. There are other midfielders that look interesting. Son and Maddison in particular were tempting. Salah too of course. So I plan on losing two of these five at some point to make way for whatever becomes apparent.

Haaland:

Two goals already. What else can be said.

Joao Pedro:

This is one where I'm definitely following the crowd. I don't have a strong gut feeling either way, but the price is useful and the potential is there.

The price bracket isn't great, but I always enjoy having a cheaper striker for some reason. So if I have to take him out it'll be fun throwing another cheapy in there.

Subs:

Tarkowski:

Not a sub anymore. This is a gut feeling one. I quite like this pick, though he was an injury doubt, so perhaps I'm being reckless with these defender picks.

Baldock:

Mainly going with Baldock as the 4.0m as he doesn't blank in GW2. I really like the potential all these 4.0m players offer. For instance, I could happily downgrade Stones to another to bring in Alvarez. Were it not for the GW2 blank I'd have even been tempted to have three and just rotate one into my side each week.

Mubama:

This is another exercise in crowd-following. Know very little about him. Hopefully he gets some minutes. Being a Middlesbrough fan my instinctive pick was Cameron Archer, but I'm not sure what's happening with him.

(Incidentally, I'm also playing EFL fantasy this year.

https://www.gaffr.io

It's quite fun. It's also handy for learning about the other teams in the league. Half the time I turn up at the Riverside with no idea who the opposition eleven are 😅 This might change that ..slightly.)

The Question Is Liverpool, What Is The Answer?

Okay, we're back! Season 23/24.

Obviously, last season I was playing 'monthly'. It was an experience, but an unsuccessful one. Certainly going by rank. You could knock two million off and it'd still be my worst season.

So not great. I'm hoping I've at least learnt some lessons from it though. Plus, I did enjoy it too - it was a very low stress way of playing.

This Season

I've decided I'm going to blog much more loosely this season. I'm just gonna post whatever's on my mind. I'll still do posts showing my weekly score and rank, but I'll keep those brief. Post the points, picture of the team, then bang, out of there. I'm very bored with the posts where I'm basically just saying, "This player got me these points; this player came off my bench, etc."

Anyway, as we start this season the big question I have is Liverpool. What are they going to be like?

My personal feeling is that they seem like a team that's lost its way. It used to be "heavy metal football." A million miles an hour. Mane and Robertson bombing down the left relentlessly. High energy. Exciting. Jurgen Klopp all bright and shiny. Now I'm not really sure what their style is. There have been a lot of new faces, but not a new feel.

In fact, this is one of the things I called right at the start of last season. Everyone was very excited about the new signings last summer, but I feared the absence of Mane. I really think people took him for granted. To be fair, I was considering all that in the context of Salah, and Salah still had a great season fpl-wise. However, Liverpool definitely dropped off. A fifth place finish was very surprising given their previous years.

This is the thing with football. Nothing lasts forever. Sooner or later the magic goes. Mourinho once looked like he would never stop winning things. Then the magic went. Things just change, and sometimes it happens quite fast.

So, that's the question with Liverpool. Was last season a blip, or transition season? Or was it the beginning of the end of an era?

If it was just a blip then with Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold so low-owned they're massive differentials. My gut feeling is to go against Liverpool. However, I do like to go against the grain and gamble. So I'm very, very tempted to do that just in case they do hit the ground running.

It's doubly-tempting as you could essentially ask the same question of Arsenal, only in reverse. Was last season a blip where they over-performed? After all, it was a season where Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs all under-performed. No one really expected a title challenge from Arsenal at the start of the season.

So going with Liverpool picks over Arsenal ones would be quite interesting.

I did a Salah draft earlier today with this in mind, but I just didn't like it. I really wasn't feeling it. So I'm back with my "no Liverpool" draft now.

I really like how my current draft looks (I won't share it here - I think I'll keep my cards to my chest and share it after the deadline. It's pretty template, but still, it's the small differences that matter). Nevertheless, Salah has been so consistently good over the seasons. So the thought of somehow getting him in when so many won't have him is really niggling me.

I'm so desperate to go against the grain that I'm tempted to go against my own instinct.