Fantasy Premier League: GW31 Review

I'm really in the zone at the moment. At least as much in the zone as you can be randomly selecting footballers each week. Captaining Mané, not owning Salah. Another green arrow. All good.

Gameweek Points: 56 (-8)

Gameweek Rank: 180,378

Overall Rank: 35,523

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My transfers all went well with the exception of Azpilicueta (Chelsea are looking very underwhelming at the moment). Anderson got his first return in weeks. Firmino got a useful little assist and Mané obviously came in with a nice double-digit haul.

My defence is continuing to do very little - 7 points between 5 players including the keeper this week. Last week it was likewise 7. So not too good. Three at the back seems like a good idea for GW32. However, with it being a double gameweek, and therefore free hit time (!) , I have no idea how I'm going to line up.

I'll probably wait until next week before I start really thinking about my free hit side. It's quite fun having the freedom to just pick a completely fresh team. So I'm just going to enjoy it. I'll do a post next week explaining my picks. Maybe one where I just list all the players I've selected, and then highlight why I've chose them.

Overall Points: 1,837

Overall Rank: 35,523

GW31 Preview

I've pulled the trigger. Four transfers. Mané, Firmino, Azpilicueta and Anderson all in. That last one of Anderson wasn't really planned. I was going to go for Fraser, but his minor knock has put me off. I had just enough cash for Anderson, so thought I might as well go for it. His form has been poor, but I like the look of his games and I'm reasonably confident he'll at least earn me my 4 points back.

(My team for GW31)

There's not much point in sharing my bench as none will be involved this week, so it's just a case of hoping all my first eleven start. The big worry is that I don't have Salah. Then again this is my main worry every week and so far it's been largely fine. Here's hoping that continues.

Making four transfers means I'm already down 8 points, so that's not ideal. However, given that the players I'm bringing in will play both this week and GW33 it seems to make sense. Any sort of green arrow this week will be difficult though. A Newcastle clean sheet and a Salah blank would be beautiful, but both look quite unlikely given the games. So it's probably just a case of hoping I can consolidate my position.

GW30 Review - 90 Points ! :D

Once again Saint Sterling has shone his holy light on my FPL team. 42 points from my captain. Very nice!

(..venerating this image will protect

your FPL assets)

Thanks to Sterling I also had a huge rank increase. Jumping into the top 50k. Hopefully this good fortune continues.

Gameweek Points: 90

Gameweek Rank: 47,905

Overall Rank: 47,564

(How my GW30 went)

Bringing in Maddison paid off, with him bringing home an assist. I could have had a really good week if I'd have made the Pogba to Mané switch. It would have took me past the 100 mark. Hopefully he'll continue this form when I do bring him in for gameweeks 31 and 33.

I've been very lucky with Vardy. Returns in every game since I brought him in. Jiménez has likewise continued to do the business. In contrast my defensive players all provided poor returns. I wonder if it's time to start going five across midfield and just three at the back.

I'll be making 4 transfers ahead of GW31, so I'll definitely have to post another full article before then. So I'll leave this one here.

Overall Points: 1,789

Overall Rank: 47,564

Gameweek 30: Quick Preview

Very quick little post today, basically just sharing my team for GW30. One transfer - Son out, Maddison in.

(GW30 line-up)

Hopefully leaving Pogba in and not going for Mané will pay off.

Gameweek 29 Review

Bad week? Good week? I can't really decide. Just the one point above the average, with a small rank drop and a lowly total of 41. However, it feels like quite a decent performance, and I can't help but feel it could have been much, much worse.

Gameweek Points: 41

Gameweek Rank: 2,854,136

Overall Rank: 109,436

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Weirdly the thing that annoyed me the most about this week was my goalkeeper disaster. I've took a strange pride in getting decent, consistent returns from my keepers, and this is the first time I've failed to get a single point. My first choice, Guaita, was dropped in place of Hennessey, then my bench option of Dubravka came in with another zero - conceding two goals and picking up a yellow card 😠 Even a point would've been great this week, but it was not to be. I'm guessing Guaita is now second choice to Hennessey, unless it was some kind of run out for Hennessey ahead of Crystal Palace's upcoming FA Cup tie. Dubravka's games are quite decent though, so it's no major worry.

The big success of this week was once again that Salah blanked. A big haul from Salah this week could've killed me with my unimpressive points total. It also meant that my captaining of Sterling didn't cost me. In fact, considering I could've went with Pogba six points from Sterling seems like a hefty tally.

Another success was Vardy, scoring once again - and getting some bonus points again! Jiménez was even more impressive. However, with him being so highly owned his hauls never quite bring the same satisfaction. His value is truly unbelievable though, and I should really be more appreciative of having him in my team.

Looking forward to GW30 I'm looking at making two transfers. My plan is to make two this week, then a mighty three (!) the week after, which will hopefully give me a full eleven for the blanks of GW31 and GW33. As it stands I'm going to take out Pogba and Son, to bring in Mané and Maddison. I'm mildly worried about taking Pogba out, so I could leave that one until next week too. Pogba is away to Arsenal, whereas Mané plays at home to Burnley. On paper the Burnley game looks far more attractive. However, Burnley can be quite dogged, whereas Arsenal can be quite open. So it's a real judgement call.

Another option I have is to move my Alderweireld to Azpilicueta transfer forward a week. It's a bit of a sideways move, but I'm not really too keen on the Spurs fixture away to Southampton. Spurs look a little tired and lacklustre at the moment, whereas Southampton seem to be playing with a real intensity under Hasenhüttl. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Southampton score in that one. I'm also thinking about bringing in a Liverpool defender instead of Azpilicueta, and then bringing in Higuaín instead of Firmino for GW31. So it's all completely up in the air.

I have decided to continue to go Salah-less even during gameweeks 31 and 33 though 😦 ..unless there's some really big injury news between now and then that is.

Fortunately, I don't have to make any of the other decisions until at least the weekend, so I can leave it for the time being. They could be quite important decisions, so it's perhaps worth waiting.

Overall Points: 1,699

Overall Rank: 109,436

My FPL Rules and Strategies

As we're getting towards the end of the season I'm beginning to think about next season, and consequently the lessons I've learned from this one. So I think it's probably time to do an article setting out my rules and strategies. I'll pin this article to the sidebar so it's an ever-relevant article. As opposed to the normal posts I make on here which tend to just have a weekly shelf life.

None of the rules and plans below are set in stone, and I'll update and adapt them over time as new thoughts come to life. Also, they're just my rules and thoughts, and I like to experiment and do things my own way. So if you take any of this advice on board do so at your own peril :)

Hopefully over time this'll become a useful repository for advice. If not it'll at least be a good learning experience.

Rules

• Remember the "top six rule".

The same top six Premier League sides nearly always finish in the top six league positions. Therefore, on average, top six sides will always tend to beat the bottom fourteen sides. Likewise they'll tend to score more goals and concede fewer. For example, I can predict with a reasonable degree of confidence that Man City will finish in the top six next season. Whereas I can't be so certain where a team like Wolves will finish next season, even though they've been very good this season. So "top six" players are always a safer bet than bottom 14 players. Even taking into account recent form.

• No more than three doubtful starters, maximum.

Ideally you want a first eleven that is guaranteed to start every game. However, in today's Premier League it seems that predicting who will and won't start is becoming increasingly difficult. Especially in regard attacking players. Consequently some of the highest points scoring players aren't always certain to play every game. A good example this season is Sterling. A player I feel is well worth owning, but who at the same time doesn't always start games.

So is it worth owning these players?

My thought at the moment is that they're a luxury you can only afford if you have a decent bench. So ideally I'd only want one such player in my team going forward. Two at a push. Three maximum.

• Take hits as a calculation over 2, 3, 4 or more games.

This is a new one for me. I originally deemed all hits a dreadful idea, unless absolutely forced. However, that's because I was just looking at them in relation to a single gameweek.

A transfer costs 4 points, but on average players tend to get just about 4 points anyway;

- there are eleven players, twelve if you count the double captain as two, and 12 x 4 = 48, which is roundabout the average weekly team score - 

Plus, unless the player you're taking out is injured or suspended, you probably would've got at least one or two points for them anyway. So you're losing the points you would've got, plus you're taking a -4. So the player you're bringing in will probably need to get more than 4 points just to break even that week. For example, if the player you took out goes on to get 2 points, you would then need at least 6 points from the player you're bringing in. So for a single week it's a pretty big gamble.

However, if you're taking a hit to bring in a player for the next two, three, four games, etc. Then suddenly it becomes potentially much more attractive. Seeing other people do this has made me completely re-think my thoughts on hits. I'm still not sure if I'm suddenly going to start taking lots of hits (I've only took two so far this season), but it's definitely something I'll be bearing in mind going forward.

• Don't be afraid to break the above rules, just remember to bear them in mind.

It's an ongoing process :)

Strategies

These are strategies I'll be implementing next season. At least that's the plan at the moment.

• Go with cheap strikers.

There are a few reasons for this. First up just the points system - only four points per goal, plus no clean sheet bonus. Seems a bit unfair really. Especially given the way teams defend and press from the front these days. It seems particularly unfair when considering that many quote unquote midfielders play so far forward they're essentially strikers anyway - for example Salah and Sterling.

On top of this you have the fact that many teams tend to play with only one out and out striker. So there are less options to choose from. Plus as teams have multiple forwards in their squad the strikers tend to get subbed more often. Meaning even the starting strikers often only get seventy odd minutes on the pitch. I may even go with just one striker in my eleven come to think of it.

• Start the season with expensive defenders.

It seems like a decent idea to start with expensive defenders from top six sides. As firstly, it's generally easier to predict who will start in defence than in attack. Then secondly, as per the top six rule, players from these teams are more likely to be on the winning side. Especially when it's early in the season and it's hard to know how many of the lower or newly promoted teams will shape up.

• Keep an eye out for attacking full backs from the lesser clubs.

One of the mistakes I made this season was that I ignored some of the great value attacking defenders from clubs outside of the top six (players such as Doherty and Digne for example).

In many ways this ties in with the above strategy. It would probably be smart to start with safe, expensive defenders from the top six, then ditch some of these for better value defenders from lower down the league, as more information comes to light.

Part of the reason I ignored such players this season was simply due to my lack of awareness. Obviously players that play at the back for less prominent clubs tend to be less well known, especially if they're new signings or are playing for newly promoted clubs. We also tend to watch the bigger sides more often. So defenders from lesser clubs tend to go under the radar a little.

The obvious antidote to this is to simply make more of an effort to check these players out early on next season.

• Likewise with the previous list, don't be afraid to change, abandon or adapt plans.

A good example is with the "cheap striker" plan. Obviously if an expensive striker is having the season of a lifetime then it might be worth ditching the plan and bringing him in. Plus, if you can afford an expensive striker without it affecting the rest of your team plans than why not have one.



Notes

I'll start assessing my strategy regarding goalkeepers later in the season. Last season I went expensive with De Gea. He had a great season, so it worked well. However, I was very lucky - just check how low down the GK rankings De Gea is this season. This time I've been experimenting with a rotation (Newcastle and Crystal Palace). Likewise, this has went quite well so far. So I'm still not sure which way to go next time out. More thinking required.

FPL: GW28 Review

53 points, bang on the average. I feel quite happy with this points tally, even though it does mean I've dropped out of the top 100k.

Gameweek Points: 53

Gameweek Rank: 3,257,728

Overall Rank: 103,279

(how things went..)

My captain choice paid off. Pogba's assist was a real godsend for me this week. My transfers also paid off. Vardy came in and scored. Pereira just got two points, but that was much better than Trippier's minus 1, thanks to his own goal, which is what I would've had.

So all in all quite a solid week. Now it's just a case of rolling this week's transfer and hoping for a good weekend. I've got Sterling captain at the moment facing Bournemouth, which looks good. He came off the bench last night and made more of an impact than either Sané or Mahrez. So hopefully that means he'll start. Hazard away to Fulham is also a very tempting option, but I'll probably stick with Sterling.

Also, I should mention that Salah blanked once again, which was probably the biggest plus for me this week. Him blanking in a gameweeek where Liverpool scored five seems incredibly lucky. From watching the Match of the Day highlights it also looks like he had quite a decent game. So perhaps doubly lucky. Hopefully that luck will continue and he'll also blank against Everton on Sunday.

Overall Points: 1,658

Overall Rank: 103,279