Friday, September 28, 2018

Fantasy Premier League: Friday Preview - GW7

Last week was my first below the gameweek average, so I'm hoping for something better this time out. Fortunately it looks like Sokratis has recovered from last week's injury so I have a full squad to choose from.

Once again Newcastle and Crystal Palace have decent-ish fixtures. This means I have good options at the back. As it stands I'm going to hedge my bets and go with one player from each club. Hennessey in goal and Yedlin** in defence. Alonso and Robertson face each other in their fixture so I'm not especially hopeful of clean sheets in that one. I don't like ditching top players just because they have tough fixtures though, so I'm happy to resist the temptation to bring in Tomkins for one of the two. Finally, with Sokratis back I'm hoping he'll actually score me some points this week with Arsenal having a promising fixture at home to Watford.

(Hennessey in goal, Robertson, Yedlin, Alonso
and Sokratis at the back - click to enlarge)

As for the midfield I'm going for four players instead of three this week. Bringing in Gundogan for Man City's great tie with Brighton. This'll mean I'll potentially have three City players for that game. If I'm lucky and all three start it could help me have a very nice week. Also, with Eriksen missing out for Spurs it means Lucas Moura is much more likely to start than he perhaps would have been. They play Cardiff at home next gameweek so I may bring in Son for Silva for that one, so I have two Spurs players in there.

(Gundogan, D. Silva, Moura and Hazard)

Upfront I have just Firmino and Aguero, with Deeney dropping to the bench.

(Firmino and Aguero)

Who To Captain - Hazard or Aguero?

As you can see from the images above I currently have Hazard as captain. This is a really tough decision, and I'm still not %100 certain yet to go this way. The big question for me is which is the safest option? However, the answer shifts depending on which angle you're looking at it from.

Last season, which was my first season playing FPL, I was never really aware of the wider overall league table. I was mainly concerned with winning the mini league I was in at work and getting the highest points tally I could. Consequently, when it came to the question of who to captain each week I wasn't even vaguely aware that say, "x" percentage of FPL managers were captaining this player, or that "y" percentage were captaining that player. I just followed my own judgement - and my own judgement tended to be based on just two questions. Firstly - which players are guaranteed to start? Then secondly - of the players guaranteed to start who's most likely to get top points?

If I follow this logic now then the obvious choice is Hazard. He's pretty much certain to start, and certain to play most of the game. Whereas Aguero isn't absolutely certain to start, and in the last game he only played 60 minutes.

However, now I'm trying to get the highest possible rank in the overall table I have another problem to contend with. Most FPL managers will captain Aguero - so in this regard it's safest to go with the herd as if I stray and Aguero does well then I potentially fall behind a huge chunk of players who will have Aguero as captain. Likewise if I captain Aguero and he doesn't do well I can sleep safe in the knowledge that everyone else will be suffering the same fate. So looking at things from this point of view it becomes a gamble to choose Hazard over Aguero.

So what's the safest option, and which method is the best way to approach things?

At present I'm still not sure lol. I am however hovering over the idea of simply ignoring what others are doing and captaining Hazard - a player certain to start.

So as it stands things look like this.

(GW7 teamsheet - click to enlarge)

It may all change in a fit of panic in the morning though.

**UPDATE - a minor injury scare has led to Yedlin now needing a fitness test before tomorrow's game, so I've just switched my Palace and Newcastle keepers and defenders around. Still got Hazard captain though as it stands :)

(Slightly revised GW7 teamsheet)

No comments:

Post a Comment