Tuesday, December 4, 2018

#FPL - GW14 Review / GW15 Preview mash-up

I better get a move on with this one given that the deadline for GW15 is in approximately two hours time. First up my GW14 performance;

Gameweek Points: 69
Gameweek Rank: 345,137
Overall Rank: 115,983

(click to enlarge)

Very nice! Sterling came in as captain, replacing my first choice AgüeroGündogan in particular did well for me and clocked 10 points. The only real downsides were Luke Shaw - getting just 1 point, and Yedlin coming off my bench with a huge fat zero. Other than that though pretty good.

So GW15. I've actually just made a transfer! A bit of a knee jerk one responding to the news about Agüero (possibly) not travelling with the squad for tonight's game against Watford. So I've brought in Aubameyang in his stead. It's shook up my plans a little as I had literally no intention of selling Agüero until just a few days ago. Especially as I'd only just recently brought him back in.

I still want three City attackers, so it means at some point I'll probably have to drop Hazard and bring in Sané. Which looks nice on paper at the moment given recent weeks, but which I have reservations about. I'm really not too sure I want to lose Hazard. I'll definitely be waiting until after the Chelsea v Man City game at the weekend though to do it if I do. Even now I've dropped Agüero I still stand to have five players involved in that game, which looks like something that could potentially ruin my GW16. Which brings me to my next headache...

..Alderweireld. I was planning to bring Alderweireld in for David Luiz before the City game. However, the fact that he was dropped for Sunday's game against Arsenal is now making me have second thoughts. Before that game it seemed like he was the only nailed on Spurs defender, and he seemed like the most sensible choice for banking the Spurs clean sheets. His absence though has scuppered that. I've also read more talk in the papers about a potential move to Man Utd in January. Which adds even more doubt.

He was said to have just been rested on Sunday, which was probably sensible given the games Spurs have coming up. Their paucity at the back also highlighted how important he is to that defence. So I guess it could be read either two ways: either his absence has highlighted his value even more, meaning he'll be guaranteed to start going forward. Or, it's a sign that, even in spite of his value, his problems with the club are too big and he'll be gone sooner rather than later. It seems madness that Spurs would be prepared to lose such an important player mid-season. So it's hard to imagine him going, but this is football.

Also in light of Luke Shaw's recent injuries I'm beginning to seriously regret bringing him in. It's been a huge mistake. Not quite on the level of the Sokratis mistake, but still enough to annoy me. I should have just went for the obvious choice in that price bracket - Alexander-Arnold, but once again I tried to be too clever. So that could be another transfer I'll be making in the not too distant future.

Goalkeeper thoughts...

Also, a final thing worth mentioning in this little review section is my goal keeper situation. At the start of the season I decided on a Newcastle/Palace rotation, which I felt was quite sensible. However, it raised a few eyebrows as it meant some gameweeks I would have a £5m goalkeeper sat on the bench, wasting a precious £0.5m. Anyway, after a nice 6 points from Hennessey this week I thought I'd look back and check what my average score has been in that position this season.

Turns out it's 4.6 points per game, which I'm really pleased about. Coupled with the fact that I haven't had to waste transfers on goalkeepers it means I feel quite justified in the decision. Though saying all that, having just checked, if I'd have just went with Hennessey alone from the start he would have averaged me 4.35 points a game. So I've paid £0.5m for just 0.25 points per game 😂

Liverpool's Alisson would've have gained me 5.1 points per game.
Man City's Ederson - 5 points.
Chelsea's Kepa - 4.5 points.
Pickford - 4.5 points.
Joe Hart - 3.9 points.

Dubravka alone would've gained me 3.7 points.

This'll be something worth keeping an eye on over the course of the season. In fact, it may help me with my plan for next season. It might be worth understanding the basic maths surrounding two cheaper keepers versus a more expensive single one.

So here's my team for GW15;

(My team for GW15)

Like Shaw, Robertson is also said to be an injury doubt.

I'm actually quite confident looking at the Wolves v Chelsea game. Wolves don't really bully teams and they've been on a poor run, so that could be a great tie for my three Chelsea players. Sadly I also have Jiménez, so anything from him will cancel out my two potential clean sheets 😡

I also wouldn't be too surprised if Sterling and Gündogan are both benched. So that could hurt me this week. Likewise with Son too I guess. Really I just need a solid performance this gameweek, to capitalise on last week's gains. However, I'm a little bit worried as there seem to be a lot of doubtful starters in my side. Plus my bench options all have tough ties - that's even if they all play.

Hopefully it'll all be rosy though.

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